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DESK

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Sep 22, 2026 · NO. 0922
THE READ — what this desk must decide today

an east-coast Indian landfall window, a deepening low-water river, and a Brazilian corridor coming back up

The week's constraints are one arriving, one persisting and one lifting. Arriving: the Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh corridor has a Sep 23-24 landfall window, which means rail holds, grid pre-positioning and port closures scheduled two days out rather than improvised. Persisting: the Rhine at Kaub at 13.0 cm is the slow constraint — low water deepening means lighter loading and more sailings for the same tonnage, and it outlasts every other item on this desk. Lifting: southern Brazil's red has been downgraded as the coastal cyclone moves off, so the grain and road corridors through Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina begin damage assessment across more than 140 municipalities while orange holds over Sao Paulo. In the United States, flooded arterials on saturated ground are the routine cost, worst through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

THE DRIVERS 1–12h — what is driving this desk today
BAY OF BENGAL — A LANDFALL NAMED ON THE CALENDAR WHILE THE SYSTEM IS STILL A LOWBUILDING→THE RHINE AT KAUB — 13.0 CM, DOWN THREE, WITH THE LOW-WATER PERIOD STILL DEEPENINGACTIVE→SOUTHERN BRAZIL — THE RED OVER ABOUT 699 MUNICIPALITIES IS DOWN, AND THE THREAT MOVED NORTH-EASTEASING→THE AMERICAN INTERIOR — 41 FLOOD WARNINGS TODAY, AND A MODERATE RISK BUILDING FOR WEDNESDAYBUILDING→EASTERN JAPAN — THE STORM IS LEAVING AND ITS RAIN HAS ALREADY BEEN PAID FOREASING→
THE RECORD past — how exposed this desk has run

carried on 45 of the last 68 editions — since Jul 5, the 10 most recent shown.

Sep 22A LANDFALL NAMED ON THE CALENDAR W… · 13.0 CM · THE RED OVER ABOUT 699 MUNICIPALIT…
Sep 21A TYPHOON DEEPENED ON APPROACH AND… · 16.0 CM · 32 FLOOD WARNINGS ON GROUND THE OU…
Sep 20THE WIND EASES AS IT TURNS ONTO TO… · FLASH FLOODING WHERE THE SOIL HAS … · THE NORTH DRIES OUT AND THE CENTRE…
Sep 19the line crossed · Great Lakes today · the north still under water
Sep 18large · the five-day spell began today · day two of a published ramp
Sep 17named · the scheduled release begins today · Hanoi flooded overnight
Sep 16a scheduled release · the flood that moved north and the… · hourly totals on steep
Sep 15THE FLOOD TOLD TO TAPER TODAY EXPA… · KAUB BLIPPED TO ABOUT 36 CM MONDAY… · A LAST HOT PULSE CRESTS ON THE SOU…
Sep 1325.0 CM · THE EXCESSIVE-RAIN OUTLOOK CASHED … · A FIVE-DAY SPELL ARRIVES ON CUE OV…
Sep 12THE DEADLY OUTBREAK HAS PASSED SOU… · BACK DOWN TO 21.0 CM · THE OUTER ISLANDS TAKE THEIR LAST …