THE STORM
The system is transitioning offshore east of Honshu, moving east-north-east near 50 km/h and forecast extratropical about Sep 23 east of Hokkaido. What it left is the story: about 832 mm in 48 hours on Izu Oshima , a station record , with Chiba stations at 476 to 487 mm at least 4 dead and about 6 missing in landslides at Yokosuka and Miura and a road-clearing death at Sodegaura; about 1.6 million people reached by evacuation advisories; about 48,000 households without power. Continued flooding and landslide risk is warned from saturated ground even as the storm departs . Every figure here is relayed through national press desks because the agency's own pages are JS-rendered or 404, and the count was still moving at the hour of compilation. (Handled with care.)
THE RECORD
8 turning points on record since Sep 15.
Sep 22 peak → easing · eased sharply
Sep 21 cresting → peak
Sep 20 peak → cresting
Sep 19 cresting → peak
Sep 18 building → cresting
Sep 17 ↑ firmed
Sep 16 emerging → building · intensified sharply
Sep 15 appeared, emerging
WHO IT TOUCHES
Public safety four warning systems live at once, and the distance between the warning and the water is different in every one
Aviation a Pacific-coast schedule to buffer, a recovering Tokyo network, and near-zero visibility on the Arabian Peninsula
Supply chains an east-coast Indian landfall window, a deepening low-water river, and a Brazilian corridor coming back up
Energy & utilities 48,000 households already dark, a coastal grid facing landfall, and a high freezing level over hydro catchments
Health systems search and recovery on loaded slopes, shelter staging before a landfall, and dust with near-zero visibility
CONNECTED
The soil is the hazard, not the rainfall total — and today the same physics is on two continents with two different outcomes.
Two halves of the same argument, 36 hours apart.
WHAT THEY'RE SAYING
searched 34 vetted voices and the open field — nothing said about this system cleared the screen.
SOURCES — Bloomberg and The Japan Times, Sep 16-17 2026 (reported) · GDACS RSS and geteventlist API, Sep 22 2026 — AN AGGREGATOR, read as a lead and never as the authority for a published intensity: POLO-26, ODALYS-26, FAY-26 and DUJUAN-26 all GREEN, with Polo green because zero Category-1-or-stronger LAND population is sized while the core stays offshore — a statement about land exposure, not about the storm. Floods ORANGE on GLOFAS for China (a long Aug-Sep window) and India; green floods for Japan (30 displaced), the Philippines (1 dead), Cyprus, Guinea (1 dead, 269 displaced), Algeria (1 dead), Turkiye (47 displaced) and Thailand. Earthquakes (Indonesia M5.5, Papua New Guinea M6.4, south of Africa M5.7, Kermadec M5.5) and the Chikurachki volcano screened out as non-weather. A Central America / Guatemala signal of about 5 dead is single-source and carried as UNVERIFIED for the Sep 20-22 window. · GDACS RSS, Sep 19 2026 — an aggregator, used as a lead and never as an authority for a published figure: Dujuan-26 GREEN with about 10,193 people exposed to Category-1-equivalent winds and a relayed maximum wind of 120 km/h over Sep 15 to 19; flood alerts for Thailand, Indonesia, Somalia, Senegal, DR Congo, Ecuador and Sri Lanka all green; numerous green wildfire alerts. Earthquakes at Kermadec 5.5M and Fox Islands 6.5M and the volcano roster were SCREENED OUT as non-weather. · GDACS RSS, Sep 20 2026 — an aggregator, read as a lead and NEVER as an authority for a published figure: Dujuan-26 GREEN with about 9,640 people exposed to Category-1-equivalent winds and a relayed maximum wind of 130 km/h over Sep 15 to 20; SIX-26, the Atlantic depression, GREEN with zero population exposure; flood alerts for Thailand, Honduras, Indonesia, Somalia, DR Congo, Ecuador and Senegal all green; numerous green wildfire alerts across Brazil, Australia and southern Africa. Earthquakes at 5.5M and 6.5M and the volcano roster were SCREENED OUT as non-weather. · GDACS, Sep 18 2026 (relay, not an authority) · JMA analysis relayed through NHK, Reuters, AFP and Al Jazeera with a KMA cross-check and a GDACS DUJUAN-26 green cross-check, Sep 22 2026 (reported) — ex-Dujuan transitioning offshore east of Honshu, moving ENE near 50 km/h , forecast extratropical about Sep 23 east of Hokkaido (KMA carrying about 29 m/s ); the aftermath is at least 4 dead and about 6 missing (landslides at Yokosuka and Miura, a road-clearing death at Sodegaura in Chiba); evacuation advisories reached about 1.6 million people; Izu Oshima logged about 832 mm in 48 hours, a station record, with Chiba stations at 476 to 487 mm ; about 48,000 households lost power; continued flooding and landslide risk is warned from saturated ground even as the system departs. jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html is JS-rendered and /bosai/en/typhoon returned 404, so every figure here is relayed and marked reported, and the count was still rising through Sep 21-22. · JMA targetTc.json, Sep 17 2026 · JMA via The Japan Times and Bloomberg, Sep 17-18 2026 (reported) · JMA via the Weathernews relay, 10 AM JST Sep 21 2026 (reported) — central pressure 960 hPa , maximum sustained 40 m/s (10-minute averaging), gusts 55 m/s , described 'large and strong', about 100 km WSW of Hachijojima; Izu Oshima 426.5 mm/24h through 10:40 JST with a 58 mm hour; >300 mm at several Pacific-coast sites since Sep 19; Level-5 landslide warning on the northern Izu chain and Level-4 across Kanto; nearest the Izu Islands early Mon afternoon, closest to Kanto Mon evening, offshore E of Boso, extratropical ~Sep 22. The raw agency page is JS-rendered and was not machine-readable this run, which is why this is marked reported. · JMA, 3:00 PM Fri Sep 18 2026, reached through Japan Times, Bloomberg and Nippon relay because the JMA bulletin pages were JavaScript-rendered this run — REPORTED: Dujuan at 975 hPa with maximum sustained winds about 108 km/h on JMA's 10-minute averaging and gusts about 162 km/h , roughly 170 km south-south-east of Chichijima and moving west-north-west at about 35 km/h ; up to 250 mm in 24 hours forecast for the Ogasawara Islands through midday Saturday; the Izu Islands Sunday and the Kanto region including Tokyo Monday, onto eastern Japan already soaked by about two weeks of record rain. JMA's 10-minute figures are NOT converted onto any other service's averaging period. · JMA, 9:00 AM Sun Sep 20 2026, reached through Japan Times, Weathernews and Nippon relay because the JMA bulletin pages were JavaScript-rendered this run — REPORTED: Typhoon Dujuan at 970 hPa with maximum sustained winds of 35 m/s , about 126 km/h on JMA's 10-minute averaging, and gusts to 50 m/s , about 180 km/h ; reaching the Izu Islands and the Kanto region from Monday afternoon into early Tuesday, passing offshore south-east of the Boso Peninsula on Monday morning Sep 21 and becoming extratropical by Tuesday Sep 22; about 150 mm forecast in the first 24 hours for Kanto and Izu and about another 200 mm through midday Monday, onto eastern Japan already soaked by about two weeks of record rain. JMA's 10-minute figures are NOT converted onto any other service's averaging period. · JTWC ABPW10 Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert, Sep 15 2026 · JTWC via NWS Guam tropical weather discussion, Sep 16 2026 · JTWC warning WTPN31/PGTW, 170000Z Sep 17 2026 · KMA Korea, Sep 20 2026: tracking Dujuan as the season's No. 25 typhoon; no Korean landfall signal in what was read. · NWS Guam and PAGASA, Sep 17 2026 · NWS Guam press statement, Sep 16 2026 · PAGASA tropical-cyclone monitoring, 4:00 AM Sep 18 2026 · PAGASA tropical-cyclone monitoring, 4:00 AM Sep 19 2026: TYPHOON DUJUAN (2625), maximum winds 120 km/h , moving north-west at 20 km/h , about 2,000 km east-north-east of extreme northern Luzon and OUTSIDE the Philippine area of responsibility. Same bulletin run: the south-west monsoon is the local driver, with flash-flood and landslide risk over western Visayas, Occidental and Oriental Mindoro, Palawan, Negros, the Zamboanga Peninsula and Metro Manila. · PAGASA, Sep 20 2026: the south-west monsoon, the habagat, affects western Luzon, with flash-flood and landslide risk over Palawan and isolated thunderstorms over Mindoro and Metro Manila; Dujuan is far offshore with no effect inside the Philippine area of responsibility. · PAGASA, Sep 21 2026 — no tropical cyclone inside the Philippine area of responsibility and no effect from the Japan system; the south-west monsoon (habagat) affects western Luzon, Palawan and Mindoro; a new low-pressure area about 2,090 km E of eastern Visayas may enter the area of responsibility Sep 22-23 (it would carry the name Queenie) and could become a depression Sep 24-25. KMA, Sep 21 2026 — the system is intensifying near Japan, not toward Korea; no Korean impacts. CMA/NMC — no active typhoon affecting China (confirmed absence). · Reuters, AFP and Daily Maverick desks, Sep 21 2026 (reported) — at least 275 flights cancelled (120 domestic + 15 international at JAL; 140 domestic at ANA), rail suspensions, more than 4,000 Chiba homes without power, the Tokyo Game Show's final day cancelled and the Asian Games equestrian programme postponed; no casualties reported at the time of this run. · The Japan Times and Bloomberg, Sep 17-18 2026 (reported - the soil figure) · Zoom Earth 03 UTC Sep 21 2026 cross-check — about 335 km SSW of Yokosuka, moving NNE at ~24 km/h , sustained ~120 km/h , gusts ~140 km/h . LOWER than the relayed agency figures and held apart rather than merged, which is why this system's intensity carries medium confidence and is printed as a range.
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