Nº 1004 · SUNDAY 2026-10-04 · 09:30Z
The Atmosphere Today
SINCE YESTERDAYCENTRAL THAILAND — THE CREST NEARS BANGKOK · HELD→NORTH-EASTERN SPAIN — A RED RAIN WARNING OVER CATALONIA · INTENSIFIED→TEXAS — THE LOWER COAST FACES MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF RAIN · INTENSIFIED→NORTH OF THE MARIANAS — TYPHOON CHOI-WAN STRENGTHENS TO 145 MPH · INTENSIFIED→SOUTHERN BRAZIL — A RED STORM ALERT FOR 158 MUNICIPALITIES · NEW→BIHAR — THE GANDAK CRESTS AND BEGINS TO RECEDE · WEAKENED→WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ATOLLS — HURRICANE NOLO NEARS THE DATE LINE · WEAKENED→SOUTH-WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA — HURRICANE RACHEL HOLDS AT 100 MPH · WEAKENED→VICTORIA — THE THOMSON RIVER RISES TO MAJOR FLOOD · INTENSIFIED→THE RHINE AT KAUB — HOLDING AT 7 CM · WEAKENED→ARGENTINA — ORANGE STORMS IN MISIONES AND SNOW IN CHUBUT · INTENSIFIED→NEPAL — A HEAVY-RAIN ADVISORY AFTER THE LATE-SEPTEMBER FLOODS · WEAKENED→NIGERIA — A HIGH FLOOD RISK IN 17 STATES ENDS TODAY · WEAKENED→ECUADOR — RAIN AND LANDSLIDE WARNING TO MONDAY MORNING · WEAKENED→SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — THE FRONT EASES TO SHOWERS · WEAKENED→CALIFORNIA — ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IN THE SOUTH · HELD→NORTHERN CAPE — HAIL AND LIGHTNING UNDER A YELLOW WARNING · HELD→SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO — A 90% CHANCE OF A DEPRESSION · INTENSIFIED→THE NORTH ATLANTIC · QUIET→
THE LEAD
Thailand's flood crest nears Bangkok, which holds below its barriers.
Flow toward the capital runs at about 2,382 m³/s, against a 3,600 m³/s threshold, before more rain from Monday.
AT THIS HOURAbout 3.2 million people affected in 26 provinces and BangkokAbout 1.2 million households. (Handled with care.)
WHEN IT ARRIVESThe crest at Bangkok now; more rain Monday to ThursdayThe river should stay about 40 cm below the city's barriers.
WHAT IS ALREADY IN FORCEThe Chao Phraya Dam at its 2,500 m³/s ceilingDrainage toward the Gulf is ordered nationwide during the lull.
Thailand's flood crest has passed Ayutthaya and is moving down the Chao Phraya toward Bangkok, which is holding. Flow upstream of the capital runs at about 2,382 cubic metres a second, against a safety threshold of 3,600, and the river is expected to stay about 40 cm below the city's barriers. Upstream, the dam still releases its ceiling of 2,500 m³/s, but the flow at Nakhon Sawan is falling. (Handled with care.)
Read the full storySINCE YESTERDAY — WHAT MOVED
20 systems moved since yesterday's edition · 10 held steady.
↑ ESCALATED7
NORTH-EASTERN SPAIN — A RED RAIN WARNING OVER CATALONIAintensified→TEXAS — THE LOWER COAST FACES MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF RAINintensified→NORTH OF THE MARIANAS — TYPHOON CHOI-WAN STRENGTHENS TO 145 MPHfirmer→VICTORIA — THE THOMSON RIVER RISES TO MAJOR FLOODfirmer→ARGENTINA — ORANGE STORMS IN MISIONES AND SNOW IN CHUBUTintensified→SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO — A 90% CHANCE OF A DEPRESSIONfirmer→THE NORTH ATLANTIC — STILL NO HURRICANEfirmer→▽ EASED11
BIHAR — THE GANDAK CRESTS AND BEGINS TO RECEDEweakened→WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ATOLLS — HURRICANE NOLO NEARS THE DATE LINEweakened→SOUTH-WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA — HURRICANE RACHEL HOLDS AT 100 MPHweakened→THE RHINE AT KAUB — HOLDING AT 7 CMweakened→NEPAL — A HEAVY-RAIN ADVISORY AFTER THE LATE-SEPTEMBER FLOODSslipped→NIGERIA — A HIGH FLOOD RISK IN 17 STATES ENDS TODAYweakened→ECUADOR — RAIN AND LANDSLIDE WARNING TO MONDAY MORNINGslipped→SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — THE FRONT EASES TO SHOWERSslipped→THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST AND THE GULF — NO WARNINGSweakened
THE SOUTH ISLAND — THE FRONT HAS CLEAREDweakened
SRI LANKA — NOT CHECKED TODAY: NO CURRENT ADVISORY WAS FOUNDweakened
✓ CLEARED1
NORTHERN MINAS GERAIS — HUMIDITY FALLS TO 12% UNDER AN ORANGE ALERT
HELD STEADYCENTRAL THAILAND — THE CREST NEARS BANGKOK · CALIFORNIA — ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IN THE SOUTH · NORTHERN CAPE — HAIL AND LIGHTNING UNDER A YELLOW WARNING · THE CARIBBEAN SEA — NO STORM IN SIGHT · THE SOUTHERN OCEANS — OFF-SEASON · BRITAIN — FAIR WEATHER · CHINA — A CALM GOLDEN WEEK · PAKISTAN — MOSTLY DRY AND HOT TO THURSDAY · BANGLADESH — NOT CHECKED TODAY: THE RIVER BULLETIN COULD NOT BE READ · CENTRAL AMERICA — NOT CHECKED TODAY: THE REGIONAL BOARDS WERE NOT REFRESHED
WHERE IT IS — THE BOARD
heatsevererain / floodtropicalfire weathersmoke / airdroughtwinterquiet✦new↑escalated▽eased=heldsince yesterday
hemispheric contrast — Two oceans, opposite records — the Pacific carries two hurricanes and a typhoon, while the Atlantic still has no hurricane, four days from the latest first-hurricane date on record..
| SYSTEM | HAZARD | PEAK | TREND | TOUCHES | CONF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CENTRAL THAILAND — THE CREST NEARS BANGKOK, WHICH HOLDS CRESTING | water | 2,382 m³/s | ▲ cresting | 3 | R |
| The crest has passed Ayutthaya and nears Bangkok, where flow runs at about 2,382 m³/s against a 3,600 threshold | ||||||
| 2 | NORTH-EASTERN SPAIN — A RED RAIN WARNING OVER CATALONIA PEAK | water | 200 l/m² | ● at peak | 2 | R |
| A red warning covers the Barcelona and Girona coasts, where up to about 200 l/m² could fall in 12 hours | ||||||
| 3 | TEXAS — THE LOWER COAST FACES MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF RAIN PEAK | water | 10+ in | ● at peak | 3 | C |
| More than 10 inches could fall in a few places between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, under a moderate flood risk | ||||||
| 4 | NORTH OF THE MARIANAS — TYPHOON CHOI-WAN STRENGTHENS TO 145 MPH BUILDING | tropical | 145 mph | ▲ building | 1 | C |
| Typhoon Choi-wan, at 145 mph, moves north about 695 miles north of Guam and should intensify through Monday | ||||||
| 5 | SOUTHERN BRAZIL — A RED STORM ALERT FOR 158 MUNICIPALITIES PEAK | severe | 100+ km/h | ● at peak | 4 | R |
| The red alert covers Paraná, Santa Catarina and Mato Grosso do Sul, with gusts above 100 km/h, hail and more than 100 mm of rain in a day possible | ||||||
| 6 | BIHAR — THE GANDAK CRESTS AND BEGINS TO RECEDE EASING | water | 0.48 m | ▼ easing | 2 | R |
| The Gandak has fallen to 0.48 m above danger at Dumariaghat, a day after it topped its highest recorded flood | ||||||
| 7 | WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ATOLLS — HURRICANE NOLO NEARS THE DATE LINE ACTIVE | tropical | 110 mph | ► ongoing | 1 | C |
| Hurricane Nolo, at 110 mph, moves west at 18 mph with no watch or warning in force | ||||||
| 8 | SOUTH-WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA — HURRICANE RACHEL HOLDS AT 100 MPH ACTIVE | tropical | 100 mph | ► ongoing | 1 | C |
| Hurricane Rachel, at 100 mph, drifts west-north-west about 280 miles south-west of Baja California's southern tip, with no watch or warning | ||||||
| 9 | VICTORIA — THE THOMSON RIVER RISES TO MAJOR FLOOD ACTIVE | water | — | ► ongoing | — | C |
| The heavy-rain warning has ended as the low moves into the Tasman, but the Thomson River has risen to major flood | ||||||
| 10 | THE RHINE AT KAUB — HOLDING AT 7 CM ACTIVE | drought | 7 cm | ► ongoing | 2 | C |
| The Kaub gauge reads 7 cm, down from 9 cm on Saturday but well above Thursday's record −6 cm | ||||||
| 11 | ARGENTINA — ORANGE STORMS IN MISIONES AND SNOW IN CHUBUT ACTIVE | severe | 100+ km/h | ► ongoing | — | R |
| Orange storm warnings cover far-eastern Misiones, with 50 to 90 mm and gusts above 100 km/h | ||||||
| 12 | NEPAL — A HEAVY-RAIN ADVISORY AFTER THE LATE-SEPTEMBER FLOODS EASING | water | — | ▼ easing | — | R |
| A heavy-rain advisory runs to about Tuesday, after floods and landslides since Sep 24 killed about 32 people | ||||||
| 13 | NIGERIA — A HIGH FLOOD RISK IN 17 STATES ENDS TODAY EASING | water | — | ▼ easing | — | R |
| A high flood-risk advisory for 17 states around the Cross River and Imo basins runs through Sunday, with 8 states on high alert | ||||||
| 14 | ECUADOR — RAIN AND LANDSLIDE WARNING TO MONDAY MORNING ACTIVE | water | — | ► ongoing | — | R |
| Rain and storms bring a flood and landslide risk to Esmeraldas, Guayas and the coast, and to Pichincha, Azuay and Loja, until 10:00 on Monday. | ||||||
| 15 | SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — THE FRONT EASES TO SHOWERS EASING | water | 70 km/h | ▼ easing | — | R |
| The atmospheric-river front eases to isolated showers, with gusts to about 70 km/h through Sunday night | ||||||
| 16 | CALIFORNIA — ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IN THE SOUTH ACTIVE | fire | — | ► ongoing | — | C |
| Dry, breezy air brings elevated fire weather to Southern California today | ||||||
| 17 | NORTHERN CAPE — HAIL AND LIGHTNING UNDER A YELLOW WARNING ACTIVE | severe | — | ► ongoing | — | R |
| Yellow level 2 warnings cover storms with hail and lightning over the eastern Northern Cape and Beaufort West, and disruptive rain in the western Eastern Cape into Sunday. | ||||||
| 18 | SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO — A 90% CHANCE OF A DEPRESSION EMERGING | tropical | — | ▲ emerging | — | C |
| A broad low near the Gulf of Tehuantepec has a 90% chance of becoming a depression within seven days, likely by mid-to-late week | ||||||
| 19 | THE NORTH ATLANTIC — STILL NO HURRICANE, FOUR DAYS FROM THE RECORD NO-SIGNAL | tropical | — | — quiet | — | C |
| The Atlantic has no hurricane in 2026, and a weak low in the south-western Gulf has a 30% chance of forming in seven days | ||||||
QUIET — THE CARIBBEAN SEA · THE SOUTHERN OCEANS · BRITAIN · CHINA · PAKISTAN · THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST AND THE GULF · THE SOUTH ISLAND · NOT CHECKED TODAY — BANGLADESH · SRI LANKA · CENTRAL AMERICA
■ OPEN THE LIVE MAP →EVENT · VENUEWHENSHELTERTHE WEATHER THERE
ONGOING
The Big EEastern States Exposition, West SpringfieldSep 18 – Oct 4open-airSunDry and cloudy · 9–17°C