No. 1004

Sources

No. 1004 · Sunday, October 4, 2026

Every figure on this edition's cover traces to a source below or it was cut. Full ledger maintained in the issue record.

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  1. 1Royal Irrigation Department and the Office of the National Water Resources via Khaosod English, Nation Thailand and Bangkok Post, Oct 4 2026 (reported) — flow at Nakhon Sawan (C.2) declining; the pulse passed Ayutthaya (riverside areas warned of a rise of about 10 cm) and advances through Pathum Thani, Nonthaburi, Bangkok and Samut Prakan; the Chao Phraya Dam holds at its 2,500 m3/s ceiling; flow upstream of Bangkok about 2,382 m3/s against the city's 3,600 m3/s safety threshold; the river expected to stay about 40 cm below the flood barriers.
  2. 2Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation via Khaosod English and Bangkok Post, Oct 3 basis (reported) — flooding in 26 provinces and Bangkok, revised down from 30 as northern provinces drain; about 3.2 million people and 1.2 million households affected; about 23 dead in the late-September count (Ayutthaya 1, Bangkok 4); relayed, not re-counted.
  3. 3Thai Meteorological Department and ONWR via Nation Thailand, Oct 4 2026 (reported) — a cool-air surge from China brings rain Oct 5-8, the Northeast first, then the North, Central, East and South; officials say it is not expected to significantly raise dam and reservoir volumes; the Prime Minister ordered nationwide drainage during the lull.
  4. 4AEMET aviso especial (Oct 1-4) via Moncloa, Meteovigo and El Tiempo, Oct 3-4 2026 (reported) — red for Catalonia: Barcelona coast and pre-coast, the Barcelona Central Depression, the south Girona coast and pre-coast and the Empordà; thresholds above 60-90 l/m2 in 1 hour and 150-200 l/m2 in 6 hours, Barcelona and Girona could top about 200 l/m2 in 12 hours; orange for Asturias, Cantabria and Madrid; 11 autonomous communities on notice; flooding in Bilbao's Old Town (Teatro Arriaga affected, power cuts); easing through Mon Oct 5.
  5. 5Madrigueras (Albacete) episode via El Tiempo and tiempo.com, Oct 1-2 2026 (reported) — the inland DANA cell dropped about 142 l/m2 in about 2.5 hours; a 102-year-old woman died with water over 1 m inside her home; about 90 rescues. The Valencia and Castellón coastal cell (red Oct 1-2) passed with its worst core offshore.
  6. 6Météo-France vigilance via CNews, Oct 4 2026 (reported) — orange for rain and flooding in Pyrénées-Orientales (66) and Aude (11), about 06-16 h; Hérault downgraded; a second Iberia/southern-France episode around Oct 8-10 at low confidence.
  7. 7WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion, 346 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026, read directly — Day 1 Moderate Risk for the Lower Texas Coast (Brownsville to Corpus Christi): local maxima in excess of 10 in in a few locations, a high (>50%) chance of at least 8 in, rates 2-3 in/hr; Slight Risk Southeast to Gulf Coast, 3-5 in from Mobile Bay to the Florida Panhandle, locally 8 in; Day 2 Slight lower Texas and Rio Grande Valley; Day 3 Marginal Florida; flood watches south-west Alabama and the Florida Panhandle; coastal flood statement for the lower Texas coast.
  8. 8SPC Day 1 and Day 2 Convective Outlooks and Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook, Oct 4 2026 — Day 1 Marginal severe risk in the Florida Panhandle (a few rotating storms), none Day 2; Elevated fire weather in Southern California, no Critical area.
  9. 9NWS Tiyan, Guam, Typhoon Choi-wan (26W) Advisory 18, 712 PM ChST Sun Oct 4 2026 (0912Z), read directly via api.weather.gov — 23.3 N 147.0 E, about 325 mi NNE of Agrihan and 695 mi N of Guam; maximum sustained 145 mph; N at 9 mph; no watches or warnings in effect; forecast to intensify through Monday.
  10. 10JMA typhoon bulletin via Weathernews and NewsOnJapan, Oct 4 2026 (reported) — Typhoon Choi-wan (No. 27), very strong; nearest the Ogasawara (Bonin) islands Oct 5-6, waves about 6 m, warning-level rain possible Oct 6; then recurving north over open ocean east of mainland Japan; mainland impact marginal (Pacific-coast swell).
  11. 11INMET red alert via Agência Brasil and Agência Sertão, Oct 4 2026 (reported) — red ('great danger') storm alert for 158 municipalities in Paraná, Santa Catarina and Mato Grosso do Sul: rain above 60 mm/h or 100 mm/day, gusts above 100 km/h, hail; yellow storms from São Paulo to Rio Grande do Sul; yellow low humidity over Mato Grosso, Goiás and the Federal District; the Sep 26-30 red heat alert has expired.
  12. 12CWC flood bulletin and IMD via UNI, Free Press Journal, ThePrint and ETV Bharat, Oct 4 2026 (reported) — the Gandak 0.48 m above danger at Dumariaghat and 0.78 m at Lalganj and receding, after cresting about 22 cm above its highest flood level on Oct 3; orange bulletin at 28 locations; embankment breaches in Saran; the Ganga above danger at Patna-area ghats; the south-west monsoon withdrawing Oct 1-7; heavy rain in Kerala and Mahe Oct 4-6.
  13. 13CPHC Hurricane Nolo Public Advisory 55, 1100 PM HST Sat Oct 3 2026 (0900Z), read directly — 23.6 N 176.7 W; maximum sustained 110 mph (175 km/h); 963 mb; W at 18 mph; no coastal watches or warnings in effect (all discontinued at Advisory 54); Nolo should cross the International Date Line by midday Sunday Hawaiian time.
  14. 14NHC Hurricane Rachel Public Advisory 29, 200 AM MST Sun Oct 4 2026 (0900Z), read directly — 20.2 N 113.2 W, about 280 mi SW of the southern tip of Baja California; maximum sustained 100 mph (155 km/h); 968 mb; WNW at 5 mph; weakening expected from Monday; no coastal watches or warnings; life-threatening surf on the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California.
  15. 15BoM Victoria warnings read from reg.bom.gov.au, Oct 4 2026 — the Severe Weather Warning for heavy rain cancelled as the low moves into the Tasman; Major Flood Warning for the Thomson River; Minor Flood Warnings for the Mitchell, Avon, Macalister, Latrobe, Bunyip, Werribee, Barwon and Kiewa; a Final Flood Watch for Gippsland, North East, Central, South-West and North-West Victoria; marine wind and sheep-grazier warnings for East Gippsland.
  16. 16PegelOnline (WSV) Kaub gauge, read directly, 11:00 CEST Oct 4 2026 — 7.0 cm; 9 cm on Oct 3 and a record daily low of -6 cm on Oct 1 (via ZDF and t-online, reported); full-load navigation needs about 1.50 m.
  17. 17DWD warnings page, Oct 4 2026 — patchy dense fog only; no severe warnings for Germany.
  18. 18SMN alerts via La Nación, Canal 26 and Infobae, Oct 4 2026 (reported) — orange for storms in far-eastern Misiones, 50-90 mm and gusts above 100 km/h; orange for snow in northern and central Chubut; yellow for snow in the San Juan and Mendoza Andes, 15-30 cm; yellow wind in the north-west.
  19. 19NDRRMA and DHM via the Himalayan Times and Watchers, Oct 1-4 2026 (reported) — late-September floods and landslides since Sep 24: about 32 dead, with counts rising toward about 43 by Oct 1; the Himlung Himal avalanche: 11 bodies recovered, 5 missing; a heavy-rain advisory for about Oct 3-6. Distinct from the August glacial-collapse disaster.
  20. 20NIHSA National Flood Advisory No. 271 and NEMA via The Sun, Vanguard and The Guardian Nigeria, Sep 28-Oct 4 2026 (reported) — high flood risk in 17 states around the Cross River and Imo basins through Oct 4, 8 of them on high alert (Imo, Cross River, Ebonyi, Benue, Anambra, Kogi, Rivers, Enugu), about 6,800 communities; officials attribute the flooding to rainfall and river rise, not a new Lagdo release; NEMA on red-alert operations.
  21. 21INAMHI Warning No. 77 via Teleamazonas and El Diario, Oct 4 2026 (reported) — rain and storms with flood and landslide risk to 10:00 Oct 5 over Esmeraldas, Guayas and the coast and the interandean provinces of Pichincha, Azuay and Loja.
  22. 22Dirección Meteorológica de Chile avisos and SENAPRED via Meteored and Megatiempo, Oct 3-4 2026 (reported) — the atmospheric-river front easing Oct 4 to isolated showers; a wind aviso with gusts to about 70 km/h across the central regions through Sunday night; aviso A519 (clouds with tornadic potential, Los Ríos and Los Lagos) expired Saturday with no confirmed tornado; a circulating Puerto Varas tornado story is a May 2025 event.
  23. 23South African Weather Service warnings via SAnews and the Citizen, Oct 4 2026 (reported) — Yellow Level 2 severe thunderstorms with hail and lightning over the eastern Northern Cape and Beaufort West; Yellow Level 2 disruptive rain over the western Eastern Cape into Sunday; no orange or red.
  24. 24NHC Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 3 2026, read directly — a broad area of low pressure developing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, likely to become a tropical depression by mid-to-late week while moving slowly west to north-west along Mexico's southern coast; formation chance 10 percent through 48 hours, 90 percent through 7 days. The next name on the 2026 eastern Pacific list is Simon.
  25. 25NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook, 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026, read directly — for the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf: one area, a broad low over the south-western Gulf, near 0 percent through 48 hours and 30 percent through 7 days; no other disturbance.
  26. 26AccuWeather and the Tampa Bay Times, Oct 3-4 2026 (reported) — no Atlantic hurricane so far in 2026; the latest first-hurricane date on record is Oct 8, 1905; AccuWeather forecasts 0-2 more hurricanes this season.
  27. 27RSMC Nadi, BoM and Météo-France La Réunion seasonal status, Oct 4 2026 (reported) — the South Pacific, Australian and South-West Indian Ocean cyclone seasons begin Nov 1 or later; no tropical cyclone active.
  28. 28UK Met Office National Severe Weather Warnings page and Meteoalarm, read Oct 4 2026 — no warnings in force for the United Kingdom.
  29. 29CMA National Meteorological Centre via NMC English, Oct 4 2026 (reported) — no national rainstorm, gale, cold-wave or typhoon warning in force for the Golden Week holiday; local heavy rain in South China only; a cold-air push early in the week is forecast.
  30. 30PMD forecast, Oct 3-8 2026 — mostly dry and hot across Pakistan; isolated rain in upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir on Oct 6 and Oct 8 only.
  31. 31Saudi NCM and Gulf meteorological services via Gulf desks, Oct 4 2026 (reported) — no fresh colour episode for the Saudi south-west after the Sep 30-Oct 2 round eased; no colour alerts in the UAE, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait or Bahrain; seasonal mist and afternoon terrain showers only.
  32. 32MetService via 1News and RNZ, Oct 4 2026 (reported) — the weekend front has cleared; the South Island heavy-rain and strong-wind watches have lifted; no orange or red warnings.