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DESK

✈Aviation

Sep 15, 2026 · NO. 0915
THE READ — what this desk must decide today

a quiet day at the hubs, with the disruption booked for midweek

Today is the easy day, and that is the planning signal. The American convective risk is a Marginal — isolated damaging wind across the south-central Plains into the Midwest, with a second area over Utah — and the disruptive weather is keyed for Thursday into Friday over Nebraska, South Dakota and the Upper Midwest, shifting toward the Great Lakes hubs. In Europe, Level-1 hail and severe gusts sit over the Benelux and north-west Germany under one of the densest airspaces in the world, while the Mediterranean's heavy rain stays mostly offshore. Vietnam's north-central and capital-region airfields sit under the new rain axis. And New Zealand's Wednesday snow reaches the South Island routes rather than the main trunk.

THE DRIVERS 1–12h — what is driving this desk today
UNITED STATES — FORECASTERS STEPPED SUNDAY'S SLIGHT DOWN TO A MARGINAL WIND DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST, PLUS A SEPARATE MARGINAL OVER UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADOEASING→UNITED STATES — THE UPPER-MIDWEST HEAVY-RAIN EVENT SLIPPED TUE-WED TO THU-FRI (SLIGHT / 15 PERCENT, SEP 17); FLOOD WARNINGS NEAR ZERO AT 2 BUT WATCHES JUMPED 4 TO 11BUILDING→VIETNAM — THE FLOOD TOLD TO TAPER TODAY EXPANDED NORTH INSTEAD: 200-400 MM ISOLATED ABOVE 500 OVER HANOI, NINH BÌNH AND THANH HÓA, BẠCH MÃ PAST 680 MM, ~200 COMMUNES WARNED, 712 HOUSEHOLDS MOVEDPEAK→EUROPE — THE HYPED MEDITERRANEAN CYCLONE NEVER GOT A DESIGNATION: ITALY CARRIES YELLOW ONLY FOR SICILY, CALABRIA AND THE SALENTO, AND THE FORECAST EXPERIMENT SAYS NO SUBSTANTIAL SPIN-UP IS EXPECTEDACTIVE→NEW ZEALAND — THE COLD SNAP ARRIVES WEDNESDAY ON SCHEDULE: HEAVY SNOW WATCH ABOVE 600 M FOR CENTRAL OTAGO, THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND THE MACKENZIE BASIN, PLUS ROAD SNOWFALL WARNINGS AND A FIORDLAND RAIN WATCHEMERGING→
THE RECORD past — how exposed this desk has run

carried on 38 of the last 61 editions — since Jul 5, the 10 most recent shown.

Sep 15FORECASTERS STEPPED SUNDAY'S SLIGH… · THE UPPER-MIDWEST HEAVY-RAIN EVENT… · THE FLOOD TOLD TO TAPER TODAY EXPA…
Sep 13A MARGINAL DAY FOR DAMAGING WIND A… · THE EXCESSIVE-RAIN OUTLOOK CASHED … · THE ACUTE TIER HELD AT ZERO A SECO…
Sep 12SLIGHT DOWNGRADED TO MARGINAL · THE EXCESSIVE-RAIN SLIGHT JUMPED H… · THE DEADLY OUTBREAK HAS PASSED SOU…
Sep 11AN UPGRADED SLIGHT · AN EXCESSIVE-RAIN SLIGHT THAT RODE… · AN ORANGE-TIER OUTBREAK ON THE TRO…
Sep 8A CATEGORY-2 LOWELL AT CLOSEST APP… · A SLIGHT THAT SHIFTED SOUTH-EAST A… · THE EXCESSIVE-RAIN SLIGHT MOVED TO…
Aug 28A DOUBLE LANDFALL IN ZHEJIANG · A SECOND ESTOFEX LEVEL 3 · A MARGINAL FOR HAIL
Aug 27LANDFALL SLIPPED TO FRIDAY MORNING… · AN ESTOFEX LEVEL 3 FOR TONIGHT · A SLIGHT THAT MIGRATED EAST
Aug 25PAST ITS PEAK AND FILLING ON A PUB… · 25 EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS · A SLIGHT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
Aug 24STILL 110 KT · 19W IS NOW TS ATSANI AND HARMLESS · A FOUR-ZONE SLIGHT FOR HAIL AND WI…
Aug 23ARRIVING TODAY BELOW HURRICANE STR… · 110 KT AND CLIMBING · A SLIGHT FOR HAIL AND WIND