Nº 1002 · FRIDAY 2026-10-02 · 09:15Z
The Atmosphere Today
SINCE YESTERDAYCENTRAL THAILAND — THE CREST REACHES NAKHON SAWAN · INTENSIFIED→EASTERN SPAIN — RED RAIN HOLDS IN CASTELLÓN AND TARRAGONA · WEAKENED→SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA — MAJOR HURRICANE RACHEL HOLDS AT 115 MPH · STEADY→CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS — FLASH FLOODING UNDER A MODERATE RISK · HELD→THE NORTHERN MARIANAS — TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN NEARS TYPHOON STRENGTH · INTENSIFIED→50 MI SSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS — TROPICAL STORM NOLO STRENGTHENS · INTENSIFIED→THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST — FLASH FLOODS AND HAIL PEAK TODAY · STEADY→NIGERIA — A HIGH FLOOD RISK IN 17 STATES TO SUNDAY · HELD→BANGLADESH — FIVE RIVERS ABOVE THE DANGER MARK · NEW→THE RHINE AT KAUB — A RECORD LOW OF −6 CM · STEADY→VICTORIA — HEAVY RAIN AND A FLOOD WATCH FOR 16 CATCHMENTS · INTENSIFIED→ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA — PACIFIC RIVERS STAY HIGH · WEAKENED→SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — AN ATMOSPHERIC-RIVER FRONT ARRIVES · STEADY→ARGENTINA — AN ORANGE ZONDA WIND WARNING IN SAN JUAN · INTENSIFIED→NORTHERN INDIA — THE MONSOON LINGERS TOWARD MID-OCTOBER · WEAKENED→SRI LANKA — LANDSLIDE WARNINGS HOLD AT AMBER TO SATURDAY · INTENSIFIED→SAO PAULO — THE STORM WARNING EASES TO YELLOW · WEAKENED→THE SOUTH ISLAND — RAIN AND WIND WATCHES FOR FRIDAY · INTENSIFIED→NORTHERN CAPE — EXTREMELY HIGH FIRE DANGER · INTENSIFIED→EAST OF JAPAN — SURIGAE TURNS EXTRATROPICAL · WEAKENED→SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO — AN 80% CHANCE OF A DEPRESSION · INTENSIFIED→THE NORTH ATLANTIC · QUIET→
THE LEAD
Thailand's flood crest reaches Nakhon Sawan, and Sing Buri evacuates.
About 2.93 million people are affected in 31 provinces, and more rain is due from Monday.
AT THIS HOURAbout 2.93 million people affected in 31 provincesAbout 1.04 million households in 195 districts. (Handled with care.)
WHEN IT ARRIVESAyutthaya on Saturday; more rain Monday to WednesdayRivers below the dam could rise 40 to 70 cm.
WHAT IS ALREADY IN FORCEAn emergency evacuation in Sing Buri's Phrom BuriSent by phone alert after water breached an embankment at Hua Pa.
Thailand's flood crest has reached Nakhon Sawan, where the flow is peaking near 3,010 cubic metres a second. The Chao Phraya Dam has stepped its release to about 2,400, within a ceiling of 2,500, and rivers below could rise 40 to 70 cm. In Sing Buri, an emergency phone alert told Hua Pa, in Phrom Buri, to leave after water breached an embankment. About 2.93 million people in 31 provinces are affected. (Handled with care.)
Read the full storySINCE YESTERDAY — WHAT MOVED
18 systems moved since yesterday's edition · 14 held steady.
↑ ESCALATED10
CENTRAL THAILAND — THE CREST REACHES NAKHON SAWANfirmer→THE NORTHERN MARIANAS — TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN NEARS TYPHOON STRENGTHfirmer→50 MI SSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS — TROPICAL STORM NOLO STRENGTHENSintensified→VICTORIA — HEAVY RAIN AND A FLOOD WATCH FOR 16 CATCHMENTSintensified→ARGENTINA — AN ORANGE ZONDA WIND WARNING IN SAN JUANintensified→SRI LANKA — LANDSLIDE WARNINGS HOLD AT AMBER TO SATURDAYintensified→THE SOUTH ISLAND — RAIN AND WIND WATCHES FOR FRIDAYintensified→NORTHERN CAPE — EXTREMELY HIGH FIRE DANGERintensified→SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO — AN 80% CHANCE OF A DEPRESSIONfirmer→THE NORTH ATLANTIC — STILL NO HURRICANEfirmer→▽ EASED6
EASTERN SPAIN — RED RAIN HOLDS IN CASTELLÓN AND TARRAGONAweakened→ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA — PACIFIC RIVERS STAY HIGHslipped→NORTHERN INDIA — THE MONSOON LINGERS TOWARD MID-OCTOBERweakened→SAO PAULO — THE STORM WARNING EASES TO YELLOWweakened→EAST OF JAPAN — SURIGAE TURNS EXTRATROPICALslipped→LIBYA — THE STORM EPISODE HAS ENDEDweakened
✓ CLEARED1
BANGLADESH — THE OLD DEPRESSION FADES AS A LOW
HELD STEADYSOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA — MAJOR HURRICANE RACHEL HOLDS AT 115 MPH · CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS — FLASH FLOODING UNDER A MODERATE RISK · THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST — FLASH FLOODS AND HAIL PEAK TODAY · NIGERIA — A HIGH FLOOD RISK IN 17 STATES TO SUNDAY · THE RHINE AT KAUB — A RECORD LOW OF −6 CM · SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — AN ATMOSPHERIC-RIVER FRONT ARRIVES · THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF — NO STORM IN SIGHT · THE SOUTHERN OCEANS — OFF-SEASON · BRITAIN — FAIR WEATHER · THE AMERICAN WEST — NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER · CENTRAL CHINA — NOT CHECKED TODAY: THE NATIONAL WARNING BOARD WAS NOT READ · CENTRAL AMERICA — NOT CHECKED TODAY: THE REGIONAL BOARDS WERE NOT REFRESHED · PAKISTAN — NOT CHECKED TODAY: THE NATIONAL LEDGER WAS NOT REFRESHED · SOUTHERN DALMATIA — NOT CHECKED TODAY: THE NATIONAL WARNING PAGE WAS NOT READ
WHERE IT IS — THE BOARD
heatsevererain / floodtropicalfire weathersmoke / airdroughtwinterquiet✦new↑escalated▽eased=heldsince yesterday
hemispheric contrast — Two oceans, opposite records — Rachel holds as a major hurricane off Mexico, while the Atlantic still has no hurricane six days from the latest first-hurricane date on record..
| SYSTEM | HAZARD | PEAK | TREND | TOUCHES | CONF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CENTRAL THAILAND — THE CREST REACHES NAKHON SAWAN, AND SING BURI EVACUATES CRESTING | water | 3,010 m³/s | ▲ cresting | 3 | R |
| The crest reaches Nakhon Sawan near 3,010 m³/s as the dam releases about 2,400 m³/s, and Sing Buri evacuates part of Phrom Buri | ||||||
| 2 | EASTERN SPAIN — RED RAIN HOLDS IN CASTELLÓN AND TARRAGONA PEAK | water | 153.8 mm | ● at peak | 5 | R |
| Castellón and Tarragona stay red after 153.8 mm at Aín overnight, while Valencia eases to orange | ||||||
| 3 | SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA — MAJOR HURRICANE RACHEL HOLDS AT 115 MPH PEAK | tropical | 115 mph | ● at peak | 1 | C |
| Hurricane Rachel peaked at 120 mph overnight and now holds at 115 mph, about 245 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California | ||||||
| 4 | CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS — FLASH FLOODING UNDER A MODERATE RISK ACTIVE | water | 10+ in | ► ongoing | 5 | C |
| A moderate flood risk covers the Hill Country and the I-35 corridor from Dallas–Fort Worth to San Antonio, with flash flooding this morning and 3 to 6 inches of rain… | ||||||
| 5 | THE NORTHERN MARIANAS — TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN NEARS TYPHOON STRENGTH BUILDING | tropical | 65 mph | ▲ building | 3 | C |
| Tropical Storm Choi-wan, at 65 mph and about 260 miles north of Guam, could become a typhoon later today before turning north | ||||||
| 6 | 50 MI SSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS — TROPICAL STORM NOLO STRENGTHENS BUILDING | tropical | 65 mph | ▲ building | 1 | C |
| Tropical Storm Nolo, at 65 mph, should become a hurricane within 48 hours as it crosses the north-western Hawaiian atolls | ||||||
| 7 | THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST — FLASH FLOODS AND HAIL PEAK TODAY PEAK | water | — | ● at peak | — | R |
| Heavy storms with hail bring a flash-flood risk to Jazan, Asir, Al-Baha, the Taif highlands and Madinah today, easing Saturday and clearing Sunday | ||||||
| 8 | NIGERIA — A HIGH FLOOD RISK IN 17 STATES TO SUNDAY ACTIVE | water | — | ► ongoing | 1 | R |
| A high flood-risk advisory covers 17 states through Sunday, around the Cross River and Imo basins | ||||||
| 9 | BANGLADESH — FIVE RIVERS ABOVE THE DANGER MARK ACTIVE | water | — | ► ongoing | — | R |
| Five rivers run above the danger mark at 7 stations in 6 districts | ||||||
| 10 | THE RHINE AT KAUB — A RECORD LOW OF −6 CM, NOW RISING ACTIVE | drought | −6 cm | ► ongoing | 3 | R |
| The Kaub gauge fell to a record −6 cm on Thursday and edged up to about −1 cm this morning on forecast rain | ||||||
| 11 | VICTORIA — HEAVY RAIN AND A FLOOD WATCH FOR 16 CATCHMENTS BUILDING | water | 150 mm | ▲ building | 1 | C |
| A severe weather warning covers Gippsland and the Otways as heavy rain develops early Saturday under a slow low | ||||||
| 12 | ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA — PACIFIC RIVERS STAY HIGH ACTIVE | water | — | ► ongoing | — | R |
| Rivers stay high in Ecuador and Colombia, where landslide alerts cover about 371 municipalities | ||||||
| 13 | SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — AN ATMOSPHERIC-RIVER FRONT ARRIVES ACTIVE | water | 80 km/h | ► ongoing | — | R |
| A front fed by an atmospheric river reached central and south Chile on Friday, with gusts near 80 km/h in northern Aysén | ||||||
| 14 | ARGENTINA — AN ORANGE ZONDA WIND WARNING IN SAN JUAN ACTIVE | severe | — | ► ongoing | — | R |
| An orange warning for the hot, dry Zonda wind covers San Juan, and yellow storm, wind and snow warnings cover about 12 to 14 provinces | ||||||
| 15 | NORTHERN INDIA — THE MONSOON LINGERS TOWARD MID-OCTOBER EASING | water | — | ▼ easing | — | R |
| The monsoon's withdrawal has stalled and may run toward Oct 15, with the Ganga, Gandak and Kosi above danger in about 7 states | ||||||
| 16 | SRI LANKA — LANDSLIDE WARNINGS HOLD AT AMBER TO SATURDAY ACTIVE | water | — | ► ongoing | — | R |
| Landslide warnings hold at amber for 5 districts and yellow for 3 until 5 PM Saturday | ||||||
| 17 | SAO PAULO — THE STORM WARNING EASES TO YELLOW EASING | severe | 60 km/h | ▼ easing | — | C |
| São Paulo's storm warning has eased to yellow, with up to 50 mm and gusts to 60 km/h | ||||||
| 18 | THE SOUTH ISLAND — RAIN AND WIND WATCHES FOR FRIDAY ACTIVE | water | — | ► ongoing | — | R |
| Watches for heavy rain in Fiordland and strong north-westerlies in Southland and Otago, with gusts near 90 km/h, hold for Friday | ||||||
| 19 | NORTHERN CAPE — EXTREMELY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACTIVE | fire | — | ► ongoing | — | R |
| No severe-weather warnings are in force in South Africa, but fire danger is extremely high in the Ubuntu municipality of the Northern Cape | ||||||
| 21 | SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO — AN 80% CHANCE OF A DEPRESSION EMERGING | tropical | — | ▲ emerging | — | C |
| A low is expected to form south of southern Mexico late this weekend, with an 80% chance of becoming a depression within seven days | ||||||
| 22 | THE NORTH ATLANTIC — STILL NO HURRICANE, SIX DAYS FROM THE RECORD NO-SIGNAL | tropical | — | — quiet | — | C |
| The Atlantic has no hurricane in 2026, and the remnant of Fay south-east of Bermuda has a 10% chance of developing | ||||||
| · | EAST OF JAPAN — SURIGAE TURNS EXTRATROPICAL EASING | tropical | — | ▼ easing | — | R |
| Surigae has passed the Izu Islands and Kanto and completes its change into an extratropical storm by Saturday | ||||||
QUIET — THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF · THE SOUTHERN OCEANS · BRITAIN · THE AMERICAN WEST · LIBYA · NOT CHECKED TODAY — CENTRAL CHINA · NORTHERN ITALY · CENTRAL AMERICA · PAKISTAN · SOUTHERN DALMATIA
■ OPEN THE LIVE MAP →EVENT · VENUEWHENSHELTERTHE WEATHER THERE
ONGOING
The Big EEastern States Exposition, West SpringfieldSep 18 – Oct 4open-airFri–SunDry, sun and cloud; breezy, gusts to 40 km/h Friday · 8–28°C
Oktoberfest MunichTheresienwiese, MunichSep 19 – Oct 4open-airFri–SunDry and cloudy, light winds · 11–20°C
Les Voiles de Saint-TropezPort of Saint-TropezSep 26 – Oct 4open-airFri–SunDry, sun and cloud; breezy, gusts to 35 km/h Sunday · 17–25°C