No. 1002

Sources

No. 1002 · Friday, October 2, 2026

Every figure on this edition's cover traces to a source below or it was cut. Full ledger maintained in the issue record.

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  1. 1Royal Irrigation Department and the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation via Nation Thailand, Khaosod English and AFP, Oct 2 2026 (reported) — flow at Nakhon Sawan (station C.2) peaking near 3,010 m3/s as the crest arrives on Oct 2; Chao Phraya Dam release stepped to about 2,400 m3/s within an authorised ceiling of 2,500 m3/s; downstream rises of 40-70 cm expected; the pulse reaches Ayutthaya about Oct 3.
  2. 2Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation via Nation Thailand and the Bangkok Post, Oct 2 2026 (reported) — 2,932,661 people and 1,041,307 households affected in 195 districts of 31 provinces; Bangkok about 329,000 households affected, 4 deaths, stable or receding; Ayutthaya about 42,286 households affected, 1 death, rising. Toll 24 in the department's count of the current event since about Sep 16; a broader whole-of-government count runs higher; relayed, not re-counted.
  3. 3Sing Buri provincial Cell Broadcast emergency alert and Chai Nat officials via Khaosod English and Nation Thailand, Oct 2 2026 (reported) — urgent evacuation of Hua Pa, Phrom Buri district, after water breached a flood embankment; an embankment collapse in Chai Nat inundated more than 500 homes.
  4. 4Thai Meteorological Department outlook via Nation Thailand, Oct 2 2026 (reported) — a high-pressure system from China brings a fresh round of rain Oct 5-7, first to the North and Northeast, then the Central region and Bangkok.
  5. 5AEMET avisos via COPE, Infobae and Estrella Digital, Oct 1-2 2026 (reported) — aviso rojo for Castellón, Valencia and Tarragona provinces from Thursday evening, Mallorca red at the peak; red thresholds up to 90 l/m2 in 1 hour and 250 l/m2 in 12 hours, flash flooding expected; on the morning of Oct 2 Castellón and Tarragona remain red, Valencia steps to orange and the Balearics to yellow; instability turns inland and south-east, with very severe cells possible over the south-east and the Balearics, lingering to Mon Oct 5.
  6. 6Measured station totals for the night of Oct 1-2 2026 via Spanish desks (Infobae, El País, Meteored; reported) — Aín (Castellón) 153.8 mm, Eslida about 130 mm, Corbera (Valencia) 123.7 mm, Xodos about 113 mm with about 80 mm in one hour.
  7. 7Generalitat Valenciana, Renfe and road authorities via COPE, RTVE and La Vanguardia, Oct 1-2 2026 (reported) — classes suspended for about 356,000 students in 103 municipalities; Valencia Cercanías halted and Mediterranean-corridor long-distance trains cut; the C-12 at Tortosa and the CV-205, CV-235, CV-425 and CV-675 closed; about 4,300 customers without supply in the Baix Ebre; no deaths or serious injuries reported.
  8. 8Météo-France vigilance communiqués via france3-régions and franceinfo, Oct 1-2 2026 (reported) — the last red, Hérault river flooding on the Lez, lifted about 22:00 Oct 1; rivers falling; episode total 337.6 mm at Saint-Hippolyte-du-Fort; no deaths; a second episode possible around Oct 8-10 at low confidence.
  9. 9NHC Hurricane Rachel Public Advisory 21, 200 AM MST Fri Oct 2 2026 (0900Z), read directly from nhc.noaa.gov — 19.4 N 110.4 W, about 245 mi (390 km) S of the southern tip of Baja California; maximum sustained 115 mph (185 km/h); 955 mb; moving W at 5 mph; expected to remain near its current intensity today, followed by gradual weakening during the next couple of days; no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
  10. 10NHC Hurricane Rachel Public Advisory 20, 0300Z Oct 2 2026 — maximum sustained 120 mph, 950 mb, a Category 3 major hurricane; heavy rain for Sinaloa, Nayarit and Baja California Sur and life-threatening surf.
  11. 11WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Days 1-3, issued Oct 2 2026 — Day 1 Moderate (3 of 4) over the Texas Hill Country and the I-35 corridor from Dallas-Fort Worth through Austin and San Antonio into South Texas, a slowly propagating line bringing heavy rainfall and flash flooding this morning, 3-6 in with local 10+ in; Day 2 Slight over Texas, 1-3 in, 2-4 in from Laredo to McAllen; Day 3 Slight over the central Gulf Coast, a tropical plume with up to about 8 in from New Orleans toward Tallahassee Saturday-Sunday.
  12. 12SPC Day 1 and Day 2 Convective Outlooks and Fire Weather Outlooks, Oct 2 2026 — no categorical severe risk Oct 2-3; no Critical fire-weather areas, Day 2 Elevated only.
  13. 13NWS Guam (Tiyan) Tropical Storm Choi-wan local statement, 254 PM ChST Fri Oct 2 2026 — 17.2 N 144.7 E, about 260 mi N of Guam; about 65 mph; WNW at 5 mph and slowing before a sharp turn north Friday night; possibly becoming a typhoon later today; Tropical Storm Warning and Flood Watch for Tinian and Saipan; Tropical Storm Warning and Typhoon Watch for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan; hazardous surf 7-12 ft.
  14. 14JMA typhoon outlook via Weathernews, Oct 2 2026 (reported) — Choi-wan (Typhoon No. 27) recurving north then north-north-east, with warnings possible for the Ogasawara islands around Oct 5-6; Surigae (No. 26) completing extratropical transition about Oct 3 after passing the Izu islands and Kanto.
  15. 15CPHC Tropical Storm Nolo Public Advisory 47, 1100 PM HST Thu Oct 1 2026, read directly — 23.3 N 166.7 W, about 50 mi (80 km) SSW of French Frigate Shoals and 475 mi WNW of Lihue; maximum sustained 65 mph (100 km/h); 990 mb; WNW at 6 mph; additional strengthening forecast, expected to become a hurricane within the next 48 hours; the Tropical Storm Warning for Papahānaumokuākea now runs from Nihoa to Lisianski Island, the watch west of Maro Reef upgraded to a warning.
  16. 16Saudi National Center for Meteorology daily forecast for Fri 02/10/2026 via Saudi Gazette and Arab News (reported) — moderate to heavy thunderstorms with torrential rain and hail over Jazan, Asir, Al-Baha, Makkah including Taif, and Madinah, with flash-flood potential; Friday the peak, easing Saturday and largely clearing Sunday; no casualties reported.
  17. 17NIHSA and NEMA national flood advisory for Sep 28-Oct 4 2026 via The Whistler, Vanguard and The Guardian Nigeria (reported) — high flood risk in 17 states, the Cross River and Imo basins, about 6,800 communities exposed; incidents Sep 25-29: at least 2 dead in Delta, about 3,500 displaced in Anambra, about 2,000 houses affected in Enugu; the Lagdo Dam impounding at about 209.82 m against a 216 m maximum, release rumours denied. No Oct 1-2 dated bulletin found.
  18. 18Bangladesh Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre bulletin, Oct 2 2026, via The Daily Star (reported) — the Sangu, Kushiyara, Matamuhuri, Monu and Someshwari above danger level at 7 stations in 6 districts; short-term flooding possible in up to 10 districts over 24-48 hours.
  19. 19Kaub gauge readings via ZDF, t-online and wetter.net, Oct 1-2 2026 (reported; the PegelOnline API returned 403 this run) — daily value -6 cm on Oct 1, a record low; about -1 cm at 08:45 Oct 2 on forecast rain; full-load navigation needs about 1.50 m; single-ship transits only on the St. Goar-Mainz stretch; about 74 days below the barge-economic threshold.
  20. 20BoM Victoria Severe Weather Warning IDV21037, issued 4:54 PM Oct 2 2026, and Flood Watch IDV35010, read from reg.bom.gov.au — heavy rain developing over Gippsland and the Otways early Saturday as a low lingers over eastern Victoria; flood watch for 16 catchments in Gippsland, North East and Central Victoria; 60-150 mm forecast, some models up to 200 mm by Monday.
  21. 21Ecuador and Colombia river and landslide alerts via Radio Pichincha, Primicias and El País Cali, Sep 30-Oct 2 2026 (reported; largely carried from Oct 1) — in Ecuador 8 rivers overflowed and 20 rising; the Bulubulu flash flood at Copalillos, La Troncal, Cañar, on Sep 29 left 5 dead; in Colombia IDEAM landslide alerts for about 371 municipalities and red alerts for river rises on the Bajo Magdalena-Cauca-San Jorge and the Pacific.
  22. 22Dirección Meteorológica de Chile and SENAPRED avisos via Meteored.cl and El Desconcierto, Oct 2 2026 (reported) — a category-1 atmospheric-river front reaching central and south Chile Friday, rain in Santiago from early morning; wind aviso with gusts about 70 km/h in the Los Lagos cordillera and about 80 km/h in northern Aysén; swells; an advisory for clouds with tornadic characteristics in Los Ríos and Los Lagos Friday-Saturday; no confirmed tornadic event at compile.
  23. 23SMN alerts via Infobae and La Nación, Oct 2 2026 (reported) — about 12-14 provinces under alert: orange for Zonda wind in San Juan; yellow storms for Buenos Aires, southern Córdoba, San Luis, La Pampa and western Río Negro; yellow wind; yellow Andean snow with 20-40 cm in Neuquén.
  24. 24IMD monsoon withdrawal page and district warnings via The Hindu and The Tribune, Oct 2 2026 (reported) — the south-west monsoon's withdrawal stalled, likely to continue toward about Oct 15; the inland depression of Sep 25-28 has weakened; at least 56 killed in Uttar Pradesh in the Sep 25-28 floods and landslides; the Ganga, Gandak and Kosi above danger in about 7 states; the Char Dham Yatra resumed.
  25. 25National Building Research Organisation landslide warnings and the Disaster Management Centre via Ada Derana, Oct 2 2026 (reported) — Level 2 (amber) for 5 districts and Level 1 (yellow) for 3, valid to 5 PM Oct 3; thundershowers, some above 50 mm, over Uva, Eastern and Central provinces; no red.
  26. 26INMET alerts, Oct 2 2026, via O Tempo (reported) — the São Paulo storm alert eased to yellow, up to 50 mm, gusts to 60 km/h, hail possible; the red low-humidity alert of Sep 30 expired, yellow lingering in Minas Gerais.
  27. 27MetService watches for Fri Oct 2 2026 via 1News, the NZ Herald and RNZ (reported) — heavy rain watch for Fiordland north of Doubtful Sound; strong north-west wind watch for Southland and Otago, gusts about 90 km/h; no orange or red warning confirmed; rain reaching the North Island Saturday-Sunday.
  28. 28South African Weather Service warnings for Oct 2 2026 via SAnews, IOL and The Citizen (reported) — no impact-based severe-weather warnings; extremely high fire danger for the Ubuntu local municipality, Northern Cape; showers over the Cape.
  29. 29NHC Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026 — an area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico; a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week; formation chance near 0 percent through 48 hours, 80 percent through 7 days. Tropical Depression Nineteen-E has dissipated. The next name on the 2026 eastern Pacific list is Simon.
  30. 30NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook, 200 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026 — the remnants of Fay south-east of Bermuda, formation chance 10 percent through 48 hours and 10 percent through 7 days, declining in dry air and shear; no other areas; nothing across the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf.
  31. 31AccuWeather and the Washington Post Capital Weather Gang, Oct 1-2 2026 (reported) — no Atlantic hurricane so far in 2026 among 8 named storms; the latest first-hurricane date on record is Oct 8, 1905.
  32. 32RSMC Nadi, BoM and Météo-France La Réunion seasonal status, Oct 2 2026 (reported) — the South Pacific, Australian and South-West Indian Ocean cyclone seasons begin Nov 1 or later; no tropical cyclone active.
  33. 33UK Met Office National Severe Weather Warnings page, read Oct 2 2026 — no warnings in force.
  34. 34Libyan National Meteorological Center and regional desks, Oct 1-2 2026 (reported) — the September orange storm episode is over; no new warning for Oct 2.