Nº 0929 · TUESDAY 2026-09-29 · 09:00Z
The Atmosphere Today
SINCE YESTERDAYBAJA CALIFORNIA SUR — HURRICANE POLO CROSSES · WEAKENED→BANGKOK · INTENSIFIED→THE FOUR CORNERS — POLO'S MOISTURE BRINGS THREE DAYS OF FLOOD RISK · HELD→THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC — HURRICANE NOLO REACHES THE WARNED ATOLLS · WEAKENED→265 MI SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS — TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEARS HURRICANE STRENGTH · INTENSIFIED→SOUTH OF JAPAN — SURIGAE WEAKENS TOWARD THE IZU ISLANDS · WEAKENED→THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST — TWELVE RED ALERTS FOR HEAVY RAIN · WEAKENED→SOUTHERN MYANMAR — THE DEPRESSION WEAKENS INLAND · WEAKENED→NORTH-EASTERN SPAIN — A RED WARNING FOR 180 MM ON THE TARRAGONA COAST · INTENSIFIED→SRI LANKA — RED LANDSLIDE WARNINGS RETURN FOR SIX DISTRICTS · INTENSIFIED→NORTHERN INDIA — UTTAR PRADESH'S LATE-SEASON TOLL RISES TO 81 · WEAKENED→SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — 12 · WEAKENED→NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS — A MARGINAL STORM RISK · INTENSIFIED→ARGENTINA — ORANGE STORM WARNINGS FOR CORRIENTES · NEW→THE NORTH ATLANTIC — TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORMS · WEAKENED→RIO DE JANEIRO — A RED HEAT ALERT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING · INTENSIFIED→SOUTH AFRICA — STORM WARNINGS IN SIX PROVINCES · HELD→LIBYA — AN ORANGE WARNING FOR MORE STORMS AFTER THE MIZDAH FLOODS · WEAKENED→THE RHINE AT KAUB — LOW WATER HOLDS FOR THE BARGES · WEAKENED→
THE LEAD
Hurricane Polo crosses Baja California Sur toward a Sonora landfall.
Down to 80 mph, Polo brings up to 12 inches of rain to the peninsula before it weakens inland.
AT THIS HOURNear 26.2 N 111.9 W, 80 mph, 978 mb, moving north-east at 10 mphHurricane-force winds reach 30 miles from the centre, tropical-storm-force winds 90 miles.
WHEN IT ARRIVESSouthern Sonora late this morning, then rapid weakening inlandHurricane conditions go on across Baja California Sur for several more hours.
WHAT IS ALREADY IN FORCEHurricane warnings on the peninsula and from Bahia Kino to HuatabampitoWatches and tropical-storm warnings reach Punta Eugenia, San Evaristo and Topolobampo.
Hurricane Polo is crossing Baja California Sur this morning, about 35 miles west-north-west of Loreto, with winds down to 80 mph. Forecasters expect it to speed up north-east and make a second landfall in southern Sonora late this morning, still a hurricane, before it weakens rapidly over the mountains. The rain is the danger now: 6 to 12 inches across parts of the peninsula and 4 to 6, up to 8, in Sonora.
Read the full storySINCE YESTERDAY — WHAT MOVED
19 systems moved since yesterday's edition · 11 held steady.
↑ ESCALATED6
BANGKOKintensified→265 MI SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS — TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEARS HURRICANE STRENGTHfirmer→NORTH-EASTERN SPAIN — A RED WARNING FOR 180 MM ON THE TARRAGONA COASTintensified→SRI LANKA — RED LANDSLIDE WARNINGS RETURN FOR SIX DISTRICTSintensified→NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS — A MARGINAL STORM RISKintensified→RIO DE JANEIRO — A RED HEAT ALERT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENINGfirmer→▽ EASED12
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR — HURRICANE POLO CROSSESweakened→THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC — HURRICANE NOLO REACHES THE WARNED ATOLLSweakened→SOUTH OF JAPAN — SURIGAE WEAKENS TOWARD THE IZU ISLANDSweakened→THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST — TWELVE RED ALERTS FOR HEAVY RAINslipped→SOUTHERN MYANMAR — THE DEPRESSION WEAKENS INLANDweakened→NORTHERN INDIA — UTTAR PRADESH'S LATE-SEASON TOLL RISES TO 81weakened→SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — 12slipped→THE NORTH ATLANTIC — TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORMSweakened→LIBYA — AN ORANGE WARNING FOR MORE STORMS AFTER THE MIZDAH FLOODSweakened→THE RHINE AT KAUB — LOW WATER HOLDS FOR THE BARGESweakened→CENTRAL CHINA — NOT CHECKED TODAY: THE NATIONAL FORECAST PAGES DID NOT LOADweakened
NIGERIA — NOT CHECKED TODAY: NO NEWER FLOOD BULLETIN WAS FOUNDweakened
HELD STEADYTHE FOUR CORNERS — POLO'S MOISTURE BRINGS THREE DAYS OF FLOOD RISK · SOUTH AFRICA — STORM WARNINGS IN SIX PROVINCES · THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF — NO STORM IN SIGHT · THE SOUTHERN OCEANS — OFF-SEASON · BRITAIN — NO WEATHER WARNINGS IN FORCE · AUSTRALIA — NO LAND WARNINGS · THE AMERICAN WEST — NO RED FLAG WARNINGS · CENTRAL NEW ZEALAND — NOT CHECKED TODAY: THE WARNINGS PAGE DID NOT LOAD · CENTRAL AMERICA — NOT CHECKED TODAY: THE REGIONAL BOARDS WERE NOT REFRESHED · PAKISTAN — NOT CHECKED TODAY: THE NATIONAL LEDGER WAS NOT REFRESHED · SOUTHERN DALMATIA — NOT CHECKED TODAY: THE NATIONAL WARNING PAGE WAS NOT READ
WHERE IT IS — THE BOARD
heatsevererain / floodtropicalfire weathersmoke / airdroughtwinterquiet✦new↑escalated▽eased=heldsince yesterday
upstream downstream — One hurricane, two afterlives — Polo's core reaches Sonora this morning while its moisture drives three days of flood risk from the Southwest to the High Plains..
| SYSTEM | HAZARD | PEAK | TREND | TOUCHES | CONF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR — HURRICANE POLO CROSSES, SONORA LANDFALL THIS MORNING EASING | tropical | 80 mph | ▼ easing | 6 | C |
| Hurricane Polo, down to 80 mph, is crossing Baja California Sur near Loreto and makes a second landfall in southern Sonora late this morning, still a hurricane | ||||||
| 2 | BANGKOK, THAILAND — THE FLOOD TOLL DOUBLES TO 23, 2.6 MILLION AFFECTED BUILDING | water | 1,500-2,000 m³/s | ▲ building | 5 | R |
| Thailand's flood has worsened: 23 people have died, up from 8, and about 2.6 million are affected across 29 provinces and Bangkok, where some 700,000 people are touched and schools… | ||||||
| 3 | THE FOUR CORNERS — POLO'S MOISTURE BRINGS THREE DAYS OF FLOOD RISK BUILDING | water | 1-3 in | ▲ building | 6 | C |
| A moderate flood risk covers the Southwest today, from the Arizona–Nevada border to the Four Corners, with 1 to 3 inches on saturated soils, burn scars and slot canyons | ||||||
| 4 | THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC — HURRICANE NOLO REACHES THE WARNED ATOLLS EASING | tropical | 115 mph | ▼ easing | 1 | C |
| Hurricane Nolo, a Category 3 at 115 mph, has entered the marine monument about 300 miles south-south-east of French Frigate Shoals, where a hurricane warning runs from Nihoa to French… | ||||||
| 5 | 265 MI SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS — TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEARS HURRICANE STRENGTH BUILDING | tropical | 60 mph | ▲ building | 1 | C |
| Tropical Storm Rachel, at 60 mph, is forecast to become a hurricane within a day as it runs parallel to, but offshore of, south-western Mexico | ||||||
| 6 | SOUTH OF JAPAN — SURIGAE (QUEENIE) WEAKENS TOWARD THE IZU ISLANDS EASING | tropical | 50 kt | ▼ easing | 2 | C |
| Surigae, now a severe tropical storm with 50-knot ten-minute winds and 992 hPa, is moving north-east south of Japan and is forecast to skirt the Izu Islands on Thursday before… | ||||||
| 7 | THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST — TWELVE RED ALERTS FOR HEAVY RAIN ACTIVE | water | — | ► ongoing | 1 | C |
| Twelve red alerts for heavy rain and flash floods cover the highlands of Makkah, Al-Baha, Asir and Jazan today, including Taif and Abha, with 12 orange and 10 yellow alerts… | ||||||
| 8 | SOUTHERN MYANMAR — THE DEPRESSION WEAKENS INLAND, BOUND FOR BANGLADESH EASING | tropical | 45-55 km/h | ▼ easing | — | C |
| The Bay of Bengal depression came ashore between Yangon and Kyaikto on Monday evening and is forecast to weaken into a low by this evening as it moves toward south-east… | ||||||
| 9 | NORTH-EASTERN SPAIN — A RED WARNING FOR 180 MM ON THE TARRAGONA COAST PEAK | water | 180 mm | ● at peak | 1 | C |
| A red warning for extreme rain covers the northern Tarragona coast until 3 PM today, with about 180 mm expected, and orange warnings reach pre-coastal Barcelona and northern Valencia | ||||||
| 10 | SRI LANKA — RED LANDSLIDE WARNINGS RETURN FOR SIX DISTRICTS BUILDING | water | 300+ mm | ▲ building | 1 | R |
| Landslide warnings are red again for six districts, including Kandy, Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya, with 14 districts on alert after more than 300 mm of rain in three days in… | ||||||
| 11 | NORTHERN INDIA — UTTAR PRADESH'S LATE-SEASON TOLL RISES TO 81 EASING | water | — | ▼ easing | 1 | R |
| Late-season rain from Sep 25 to 27 killed 81 people in Uttar Pradesh, a fuller count than the one carried on Monday | ||||||
| 12 | SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — 12,000 STILL CUT OFF, A NEW FRONT THURSDAY EASING | water | 12,303 isolated | ▼ easing | 1 | R |
| The floods are easing, but 12,303 people remain isolated and 643 homeless or badly affected, most in La Araucanía, where Curarrehue is still cut off | ||||||
| 13 | NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS — A MARGINAL STORM RISK, SLIGHT WEDNESDAY BUILDING | severe | — | ▲ building | — | C |
| Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible from south-eastern New Mexico into west Texas today, a marginal risk on Polo's leading edge | ||||||
| 14 | ARGENTINA — ORANGE STORM WARNINGS FOR CORRIENTES, SANTA FE AND ENTRE RÍOS ACTIVE | severe | 50-90 mm | ► ongoing | — | R |
| Orange storm warnings cover Corrientes, Santa Fe and Entre Ríos, with 50 to 90 mm of rain, hail and gusts above 100 km/h | ||||||
| 15 | THE NORTH ATLANTIC — TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORMS, STILL NO HURRICANE EMERGING | tropical | 45 mph | ▲ emerging | — | C |
| Tropical Storm Hanna, the season's seventh named storm, holds at 45 mph far out over the ocean, about 1,085 miles east-north-east of Bermuda, while Fay weakens at 40 mph to… | ||||||
| 16 | RIO DE JANEIRO — A RED HEAT ALERT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ACTIVE | heat | 40+ °C | ► ongoing | 1 | R |
| A red extreme-heat alert covers Rio de Janeiro and its metro area until 6 PM Wednesday, with the hottest cores above 40 °C in the Centre-West and South-East | ||||||
| 17 | SOUTH AFRICA — STORM WARNINGS IN SIX PROVINCES, EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACTIVE | severe | — | ► ongoing | — | R |
| Yellow level-2 severe storms cover six provinces from North West and Gauteng to the Mpumalanga Highveld, with hail, damaging winds and localised flooding | ||||||
| 18 | LIBYA — AN ORANGE WARNING FOR MORE STORMS AFTER THE MIZDAH FLOODS ACTIVE | water | — | ► ongoing | — | R |
| An orange warning for further thunderstorms stands over southern, central and western Libya, where last week's floods at Mizdah left 4 dead and 79 injured | ||||||
| 19 | THE RHINE AT KAUB — LOW WATER HOLDS FOR THE BARGES ACTIVE | drought | — | ► ongoing | 1 | R |
| The Rhine at Kaub stays in severe low water, so barges through the gorge keep loading light | ||||||
QUIET — THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF · THE SOUTHERN OCEANS · BRITAIN · AUSTRALIA · THE AMERICAN WEST · NOT CHECKED TODAY — CENTRAL NEW ZEALAND · CENTRAL CHINA · NIGERIA · CENTRAL AMERICA · PAKISTAN · SOUTHERN DALMATIA
■ OPEN THE LIVE MAP →EVENT · VENUEWHENSHELTERTHE WEATHER THERE
ONGOING
The Big EEastern States Exposition, West SpringfieldSep 18 – Oct 4open-airTue–Sun morningDry, sun and cloud; breezy, gusts to 35 km/h Friday · 9–27°C
Oktoberfest MunichTheresienwiese, MunichSep 19 – Oct 4open-airTue–Sun to middayDry, sun and cloud · 10–25°C
Les Voiles de Saint-TropezPort of Saint-TropezSep 26 – Oct 4open-airTue–Sun to middayA chance of showers Thursday afternoon; breezy, gusts to 40 km/h Tuesday · 15–26°C