No. 0929

Sources

No. 0929 · Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Every figure on this edition's cover traces to a source below or it was cut. Full ledger maintained in the issue record.

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  1. 1NHC Hurricane Polo Public Advisory 35, 200 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026 (0900Z), read directly from nhc.noaa.gov — 26.2 N 111.9 W, about 35 mi (55 km) WNW of Loreto and 140 mi (225 km) SSW of Guaymas; maximum sustained 80 mph (130 km/h); moving NE at 10 mph with significant acceleration this morning; 978 mb; the core crosses Baja California Sur for a few more hours, then moves inland over southern Sonora late this morning, still expected to be a hurricane at the second landfall, rapid weakening well inland Tuesday; hurricane-force winds 30 mi, tropical-storm-force winds 90 mi; Hurricane Warning west coast Punta Abreojos to Puerto Cortes (discontinued south of Puerto Cortes with this advisory), east coast Loreto to Bahia San Juan Bautista, mainland Mexico Bahia Kino to Huatabampito; Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia, south of Loreto to San Evaristo, south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo; rainfall 6-12 in across portions of Baja California Sur, 4-6 in, maximum 8 in, across southern and central Sonora, life-threatening flooding and mudslides; significant coastal surge where winds blow onshore; a Wind Advisory for southern New Mexico and far west Texas late Tuesday with Polo's remnants.
  2. 2NHC Hurricane Polo Public Advisory 34A, 1100 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026 — 110 mph, 965 mb, 25.9 N 112.2 W, about 80 mi N of Cabo San Lazaro, NE 13 mph, making landfall on the west coast of Baja California Sur.
  3. 3SMN/Conagua and Mexican civil-protection figures via Infobae, Expansión and TV Azteca, Sep 28-29 2026 (reported) — 554 shelters staged in the north-west, ports closed along the Gulf of California; 75-150 mm forecast over Sinaloa, Chihuahua and Durango.
  4. 4Thailand Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation figures via Nation Thailand, Malay Mail, France24/AFP and The Watchers, Sep 29 2026 (reported) — 23 dead (up from 8); about 2.6 million people and some 940,300 households affected in 167 districts of 29 provinces plus Bangkok; in Bangkok about 700,000 people (329,000 households) affected, schools closed a second day, about 7,000 people in more than 230 shelters; the Chao Phraya Dam releasing 1,500-2,000 m3/s, which may raise downstream levels 0.7-1.7 m over about nine days.
  5. 5WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion, 827 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026, Days 1-3 — Day 1 Moderate risk across the Southwest (south-east California, the Arizona-Nevada border, south-west Utah, the Four Corners), 1-3 in on saturated and burn-scarred soils and slot canyons; Day 2 Moderate south-east Arizona to south-east Colorado; Day 3 Moderate across the central and southern High Plains.
  6. 6SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026) and Day 2 Outlook — Day 1 Marginal risk south-east and east New Mexico into west Texas, isolated severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes; Day 2 Slight risk over Oklahoma and Texas. SPC Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 — Elevated only (southern California, north-central Montana), no Critical area.
  7. 7NWS active-alerts API (api.weather.gov), read about 09:00Z Sep 29 2026 — 255 active alerts (92 land, 163 marine); 36 Flood Watches and 7 Flash Flood Warnings concentrated in AZ, NM, UT, CO, CA, TX, NE, KS and ND; no Red Flag Warnings; no winter alerts.
  8. 8CPHC Hurricane Nolo Public Advisory 35 (issued by NHC), 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026 (0900Z), read directly from nhc.noaa.gov — 20.0 N 164.3 W, about 300 mi (480 km) SSE of French Frigate Shoals and 425 mi (680 km) W of Honolulu; maximum sustained 115 mph (185 km/h), a category 3 hurricane; 958 mb; NNW at 15 mph, a turn north tonight, north across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument Tuesday, slowly west from Wednesday; weakening over the next couple of days, then some re-intensification late in the week; hurricane-force winds 45 mi, tropical-storm-force winds 175 mi; Hurricane Warning for the monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals (upgraded from a watch with Advisory 34), a watch may be needed for more of the monument Tuesday; hurricane conditions in the warning area by Wednesday, tropical-storm conditions likely Tuesday; 3-6 in of rain over Kauai and Niihau Tuesday to Thursday; life-threatening surf on south- and west-facing shores of the main islands; large waves likely to inundate low-lying atolls from French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa.
  9. 9NHC Tropical Storm Rachel Public Advisory 9, 300 AM CST Tue Sep 29 2026 (0900Z), read directly from nhc.noaa.gov — 14.7 N 104.3 W, about 265 mi (430 km) SSW of Lazaro Cardenas and 405 mi (650 km) SSE of Cabo Corrientes; maximum sustained 60 mph (95 km/h); 992 mb; WNW at 12 mph, parallel to but offshore of south-western Mexico; forecast to become a hurricane during the next day or so; tropical-storm-force winds 160 mi; Tropical Storm Warning Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, conditions expected there later today; Tropical Storm Watch to Cabo Corrientes; 3-6 in, isolated 8 in, across coastal Guerrero, Michoacan and Colima; life-threatening surf spreading north through midweek.
  10. 10NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, eastern North Pacific, Sep 29 2026 — a disturbance (EP91) well east-south-east of Hawaii, 90 percent chance of formation in 48 hours and 7 days, a tropical depression likely within a day or two, drifting north-east.
  11. 11JMA typhoon information for Severe Tropical Storm Surigae (Typhoon No. 26, TC2632), analysis 15:00 JST, issued 15:45 JST Tue Sep 29 2026 (0645Z), read directly from the JMA bosai typhoon feed — 29.0 N 134.9 E, south of Japan, moving NE at 15 km/h; maximum sustained 25 m/s (50 kt, 10-minute), gusts 35 m/s (70 kt); 992 hPa; gale radius 220 km SE, 165 km NW; forecast 45 kt tropical storm at 29.7 N 136.8 E by 03:00 JST Sep 30.
  12. 12Weathernews and Japanese travel desks (Open Jaw, RUS Tourism), Sep 29 2026 (reported) — Surigae forecast to skirt the Izu Islands on Thu Oct 1, extratropical by about Oct 3; Tokyo on alert, Narita travel advisories and ANA free-change waivers in effect. PAGASA had named the system Queenie inside the Philippine area of responsibility.
  13. 13Saudi National Center for Meteorology early-warning page, valid Tue Sep 29 2026, read directly — 12 red, 12 orange and 10 yellow alerts; red for heavy rain and flash floods in Makkah (Taif, Adham, Al-Ardiyat), Al-Baha, Asir (Abha, Muhayil, Al-Farshah) and Jazan (Al-Aridah, Ad-Dair).
  14. 14IMD RSMC New Delhi National Bulletin 07, 0830 IST Tue Sep 29 2026 — a Depression over Myanmar and the adjoining east-central and north-east Bay of Bengal after crossing the Myanmar coast between Yangon and Kyaikto on Monday evening as a Deep Depression; moving NNW at about 28 km/h; expected to weaken into a well-marked low by this evening toward south-east Bangladesh, Mizoram and Tripura; squally winds 45-55 km/h gusting 65 km/h along the Myanmar and Bangladesh coasts Sep 29 to Oct 1; isolated heavy rain (64.5-115.5 mm) over north-east India. IMD heavy-rain warnings: north-east India and the far south (south interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry; Kerala Oct 1-3); monsoon withdrawal advancing across the north-west.
  15. 15Bangladesh Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre via The Daily Star, Sep 29 2026 (reported) — short-term flood risk flagged for about 10 districts.
  16. 16AEMET CAP warnings, read directly — red (extreme) rainfall warning for the northern Tarragona coast, issued 28 Sep 17:17 UTC, valid Tue Sep 29 06:00-15:00, about 180 mm; orange rain and storms for pre-coastal Barcelona (issued 29 Sep 06:45 UTC) and north Valencia and south Castellon.
  17. 17Météo-France vigilance, Sep 29 2026 — orange for rain-flood and storms in Lozère, Gard and Hérault (the Cévennes) Wed Sep 30 to Thu Oct 1; yellow in neighbouring departments.
  18. 18NBRO and the Disaster Management Centre of Sri Lanka via Daily FT and Ada Derana, Sep 29 2026 (reported) — landslide early warnings for Galle, Kalutara, Kandy, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura; 14 districts on landslide alert, red for 6; three-day rainfall above 300 mm in places; about 35 minor land-instability incidents.
  19. 19Uttar Pradesh relief officials via Xinhua, Sep 28 2026 (reported) — 81 dead in late-season rain Sep 25-27; Himachal Pradesh seasonal toll 261 via ANI (reported).
  20. 20SENAPRED balance via La Tercera and CNN Chile, Sep 29 2026 (reported) — 12,303 people isolated and 643 homeless or badly affected in south-central Chile, La Araucanía worst, Curarrehue cut off; no deaths; red alert for river overflow held in Biobío and Cautín; a new frontal system from Oct 1-2.
  21. 21Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Argentina) warnings via La Nación, Sep 29 2026 (reported) — orange for storms in Corrientes, Santa Fe and Entre Ríos, 50-90 mm, hail, gusts above 100 km/h; yellow across about 15 provinces including greater Buenos Aires.
  22. 22NHC Tropical Storm Hanna Public Advisory 4, 500 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026 (0900Z) — 35.2 N 46.2 W, about 1,085 mi ENE of Bermuda and 1,080 mi W of the Azores; maximum sustained 45 mph (75 km/h); 1002 mb; ESE at 15 mph. NHC Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory 37, 500 AM AST — 25.0 N 46.8 W, 40 mph, 1008 mb, SW at 13 mph. NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook, Sep 29 — no other formation expected over the next 7 days; no system in the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico.
  23. 23Fox Weather and the Boston Globe, Sep 28-29 2026 (reported) — the 2026 Atlantic season has no hurricane yet, the longest such run to this date in 112 years.
  24. 24INMET warnings via O Tempo, Sep 29 2026 (reported) — red extreme-heat alert for Rio de Janeiro and its metro area among eight states until Sep 30 18:00, cores above 40 °C in the Centre-West and South-East; orange low-humidity alert for Brasília, below 20 percent.
  25. 25South African Weather Service warnings via The Citizen and IOL, Sep 29 2026 (reported) — yellow level-2 severe thunderstorms across North West, Gauteng, the Mpumalanga Highveld, south-west Limpopo, northern Free State and north-east Northern Cape; extremely high fire danger in the Limpopo Valley, the Bushveld and Moses Kotane.
  26. 26Libyan National Meteorological Center via Libya Observer and Africanews, Sep 28-29 2026 (reported) — standing orange for further thunderstorms over southern, central and western Libya; the Sep 23-26 Mizdah floods left 3 + 1 dead, 79 injured and 220 families affected.
  27. 27German federal waterways and DWD context via desks, Sep 29 2026 (reported) — the Rhine at Kaub remains in severe low water; aggregator readings differ this run, so no gauge value is printed.
  28. 28Met Office UK weather warnings page, Sep 29 2026 — no warnings in force. DWD warnings, Sep 29 — no active warnings in Germany, thunderstorms returning from the west midweek.
  29. 29BoM state warning pages (NSW, QLD, SA, WA mirrors), 07:19 GMT Sep 29 2026 — marine wind warnings only; no land warnings.
  30. 30JTWC and BoM tropical-cyclone pages for the South Indian Ocean and South Pacific are off-season; the BoM Australian-region outlook and the Météo-France La Réunion bulletin carry no active system, Sep 29 2026. GDACS's red listing for Cyclone Gezani was dated February 2026 and excluded as stale.