Bangkok holds as Thailand's crest recedes, but new rain arrives.

A flash-flood alert covers Pattaya, and a heavier spell is due over the Central Plains from Oct 10.

AT THIS HOURBangkok holds as the mainstem recedesMore than 3.5 million people affected since mid-September. (Handled with care.)

WHEN IT ARRIVESThe surge now; a heavier spell Oct 10 to 14Flash-flood alerts in Pattaya and the Bang Pakong basin.

WHAT IS ALREADY IN FORCEAlerts for Pattaya, Chachoengsao and the Bang Pakong basinWater from Nakhon Nayok and Prachin Buri drains south.

Thailand's flood crest has passed, the Chao Phraya keeps falling toward the Gulf, and Bangkok is holding. Upstream, the dam still releases its ceiling of about 2,500 m³/s, and the flow at Nakhon Sawan is trending down. But the next rain has arrived: a cool-air surge from China set off a flash-flood alert in Pattaya, and new alerts cover Chachoengsao and the Bang Pakong basin. (Handled with care.)

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SINCE YESTERDAY — WHAT MOVED

22 systems moved since yesterday's edition · 10 held steady.

✦ APPEARED3

SENEGAL — FLOODS KILL SEVERAL IN DAKAR→NORTH OF KWAJALEIN — KOGUMA FORMS OVER OPEN WATER→CENTRAL VIETNAM — HEAVY RAIN MOVES TO HA TINH AND HUE→

↑ ESCALATED5

THE GULF OF MEXICO — AN 80% CHANCE OF A DEPRESSIONintensified→SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO — A 90% CHANCE OF A DEPRESSIONintensified→UPPER PAKISTAN — RAINintensified→SRI LANKA — MORE THAN 75 MM OF RAIN IN SEVERAL PROVINCESintensified→THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST — A FLASH-FLOOD WARNING FOR JAZANintensified→

▽ EASED11

NORTH-EASTERN SPAIN — CATALONIA'S RED EASES TO ORANGEweakened→THE OGASAWARA ISLANDS — TYPHOON CHOI-WAN PASSES AT 945 HPAweakened→SOUTH-WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA — HURRICANE RACHEL WEAKENS AT 90 MPHweakened→FLORIDA — HEAVY RAIN ON THE PANHANDLEweakened→MENDOZA — ORANGE STORMSslipped→SOUTHERN BRAZIL — ORANGE STORMS IN SANTA CATARINA AS THE RED ENDSweakened→BIHAR — THE RIVERS KEEP FALLING AS THE MONSOON WITHDRAWSweakened→VICTORIA — THE THOMSON RECEDES TO MODERATE FLOODweakened→THE RHINE AT KAUB — EASING BACK TO 3 CMweakened→THE KWAZULU-NATAL COAST — A YELLOW WARNING FOR STORMS AND WINDslipped→

NIGERIA — NOT CHECKED TODAY: THE FLOOD BULLETIN COULD NOT BE READweakened

✓ CLEARED3

NEPAL — A HEAVY-RAIN ADVISORY AFTER THE LATE-SEPTEMBER FLOODS

ECUADOR — RAIN AND LANDSLIDE WARNING TO MONDAY MORNING

CALIFORNIA — ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IN THE SOUTH

HELD STEADYCENTRAL THAILAND — BANGKOK HOLDS AS NEW RAIN ARRIVES · NORTH-EAST OF WAKE ISLAND — TYPHOON NOLO HOLDS AT 120 MPH · SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — A FRONT BRINGS RAIN FROM COQUIMBO TO BIOBÍO · THE CARIBBEAN SEA — NO STORM IN SIGHT · THE SOUTHERN OCEANS — OFF-SEASON · BRITAIN — FAIR WEATHER · BANGLADESH — NO FLOOD OR MARINE WARNING · CHINA — A CALM GOLDEN WEEK · NEW ZEALAND — NO SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS · CENTRAL AMERICA — NOT CHECKED TODAY: THE REGIONAL BOARDS WERE NOT REFRESHED

WHERE IT IS — THE BOARD

heatsevererain / floodtropicalfire weathersmoke / airdroughtwinterquiet✦new↑escalated▽eased=heldsince yesterday

hemispheric contrast — Two oceans, opposite records — the Pacific carries four named storms, while the Atlantic has no hurricane two days from its record.

	SYSTEM	HAZARD	PEAK	TREND	TOUCHES	CONF
1	CENTRAL THAILAND — BANGKOK HOLDS AS NEW RAIN ARRIVES EASING	water	2,500 m³/s	▼ easing	3	R
	The Chao Phraya keeps falling and Bangkok holds, but a cool-air surge has brought a flash-flood alert to Pattaya and new alerts in the east
2	SENEGAL — FLOODS KILL SEVERAL IN DAKAR, WITH MORE RAIN DUE ACTIVE	water	142 mm	► ongoing	2	R
	Weekend rains of up to about 142 mm in a day killed several people, among them a mother and child in Dakar's Parcelles Assainies
3	NORTH-EASTERN SPAIN — CATALONIA'S RED EASES TO ORANGE EASING	water	193 l/m²	▼ easing	1	R
	The red over the Barcelona coast has eased, but orange holds across the Mediterranean east and interior, and one person is still missing at Pineda de Mar
4	THE GULF OF MEXICO — AN 80% CHANCE OF A DEPRESSION BUILDING	tropical	80%	▲ building	1	C
	A low over the south-western Gulf now has an 80% chance of forming within two days, up from 50% within seven, and a depression is likely within a couple of…
5	THE OGASAWARA ISLANDS — TYPHOON CHOI-WAN PASSES AT 945 HPA PEAK	tropical	945 hPa	● at peak	1	R
	Typhoon Choi-wan made its closest, strongest pass at Japan's Ogasawara islands overnight, with winds of 45 m/s and waves near 13 m
6	SOUTH-WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA — HURRICANE RACHEL WEAKENS AT 90 MPH EASING	tropical	90 mph	▼ easing	1	C
	Hurricane Rachel, at about 90 mph, moves west into cooler water and drier air and is weakening
7	NORTH-EAST OF WAKE ISLAND — TYPHOON NOLO HOLDS AT 120 MPH ACTIVE	tropical	120 mph	► ongoing	1	R
	Typhoon Nolo holds at about 120 mph some 967 km north-east of Wake Island, moving west over open water
8	NORTH OF KWAJALEIN — KOGUMA FORMS OVER OPEN WATER EMERGING	tropical	—	▲ emerging	1	R
	Koguma formed north of Kwajalein and drifts north, then north-west, over the open tropical Pacific, with no land in its near-term path
9	SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO — A 90% CHANCE OF A DEPRESSION BUILDING	tropical	90%	▲ building	—	C
	A broad low south of southern Mexico has a 90% chance of forming within seven days, and a depression is likely within a couple of days
10	FLORIDA — HEAVY RAIN ON THE PANHANDLE, UP TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR EASING	water	3 in/hr	▼ easing	—	C
	Rain could fall at near 3 in/hr, with locally about 5 inches, over the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend
11	UPPER PAKISTAN — RAIN, WIND AND HAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACTIVE	water	—	► ongoing	1	R
	A westerly wave brings rain, windstorms and isolated hail to Islamabad, Murree, Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan through Oct 7, with temperatures 2 to 4 °C lower.
12	CENTRAL VIETNAM — HEAVY RAIN MOVES TO HA TINH AND HUE ACTIVE	water	200+ mm	► ongoing	2	R
	Heavy rain has moved from the north to the centre, with 50 to 100 mm and locally more than 200 mm from Ha Tinh to Hue, and a risk of…
13	MENDOZA — ORANGE STORMS, AND SNOW IN SAN JUAN ACTIVE	severe	90+ km/h	► ongoing	1	R
	An orange storm warning covers central Mendoza and southern San Luis, with hail and gusts above 90 km/h, and 20 to 40 cm of snow is forecast in San Juan.
14	SOUTHERN BRAZIL — ORANGE STORMS IN SANTA CATARINA AS THE RED ENDS EASING	severe	30 mm/h	▼ easing	—	R
	The red alert over western Paraná has ended; an orange storm alert covers about six regions of Santa Catarina, with rain at 20 to 30 mm/h and hail.
15	SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — A FRONT BRINGS RAIN FROM COQUIMBO TO BIOBÍO ACTIVE	water	40 mm	► ongoing	—	R
	A front over Maule and Ñuble brings 25 to 40 mm to the foothills and gusts to 70 km/h in the mountains, clearing by Wednesday.
16	SRI LANKA — MORE THAN 75 MM OF RAIN IN SEVERAL PROVINCES ACTIVE	water	75+ mm	► ongoing	—	C
	Heavy rain above 75 mm is forecast in several provinces as the north-east monsoon sets in, with a risk of flash floods and landslides.
17	THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST — A FLASH-FLOOD WARNING FOR JAZAN, ASIR AND AL-BAHA ACTIVE	water	—	► ongoing	1	R
	Heavy rain, hail and dust-raising winds bring a flash-flood risk to parts of Jazan, Asir and Al-Baha, unsettled through Saturday.
18	BIHAR — THE RIVERS KEEP FALLING AS THE MONSOON WITHDRAWS EASING	water	—	▼ easing	—	R
	The Gandak, Ganga, Kosi and Bagmati stay above danger at some gauges but are falling, as the monsoon withdraws across eastern and central India.
19	VICTORIA — THE THOMSON RECEDES TO MODERATE FLOOD EASING	water	—	▼ easing	—	C
	The Thomson River has fallen to moderate flood, and the Latrobe and Barwon are at minor
20	THE RHINE AT KAUB — EASING BACK TO 3 CM EASING	drought	3 cm	▼ easing	1	C
	The Kaub gauge reads 3 cm, down from 8 cm a day earlier but still above the record low of −6 cm on Oct 1.
21	THE KWAZULU-NATAL COAST — A YELLOW WARNING FOR STORMS AND WIND ACTIVE	severe	—	► ongoing	—	R
	Severe storms and damaging winds are possible on the KwaZulu-Natal coast and in the south-east, and damaging waves on the Western Cape coast.

QUIET — THE CARIBBEAN SEA · THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA · THE SOUTHERN OCEANS · BRITAIN · BANGLADESH · CHINA · NEW ZEALAND · NOT CHECKED TODAY — NIGERIA · CENTRAL AMERICA

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