Nº 1003 · SATURDAY 2026-10-03 · 09:30Z
The Atmosphere Today
SINCE YESTERDAYCENTRAL THAILAND — THE CREST REACHES AYUTTHAYA · HELD→BIHAR — THE GANDAK RUNS ABOVE ITS HIGHEST RECORDED FLOOD · INTENSIFIED→EASTERN SPAIN — RED STEPS DOWN TO ORANGE · WEAKENED→THE U.S. GULF COAST — FLOOD RISK MOVES EAST FROM TEXAS · WEAKENED→THE NORTHERN MARIANAS — TYPHOON CHOI-WAN PASSES AT 100 MPH · HELD→215 MI W OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS — HURRICANE NOLO INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY · INTENSIFIED→SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA — HURRICANE RACHEL EASES TO 90 MPH · WEAKENED→NEPAL — MORE HEAVY RAIN AFTER LATE-SEPTEMBER FLOODS KILLED 27 · NEW→THE RHINE AT KAUB — BACK ABOVE ZERO AT 10 CM · WEAKENED→VICTORIA — HEAVY RAIN IN GIPPSLAND AND A MODERATE FLOOD ON THE WERRIBEE · INTENSIFIED→NIGERIA — A HIGH FLOOD RISK IN 17 STATES TO SUNDAY · WEAKENED→THE ARGENTINE NORTH-EAST — ORANGE STORMS · INTENSIFIED→ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA — RIVERS OVERFLOW AND SLOPES STAY ON ALERT · WEAKENED→SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — THE ATMOSPHERIC-RIVER FRONT EASES TO SHOWERS · WEAKENED→THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST — THE STORM EPISODE EASES · WEAKENED→SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA — ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IN THE SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLS · INTENSIFIED→NORTHERN CAPE — HAIL AND LIGHTNING UNDER A YELLOW WARNING · INTENSIFIED→NORTHERN MINAS GERAIS — HUMIDITY FALLS TO 12% UNDER AN ORANGE ALERT · WEAKENED→SRI LANKA — HEAVY SHOWERS ABOVE 75 MM IN SEVEN PROVINCES · WEAKENED→THE SOUTH ISLAND — A RAIN AND WIND FRONT · WEAKENED→SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO — AN 80% CHANCE OF A DEPRESSION · HELD→THE NORTH ATLANTIC · QUIET→
THE LEAD
Thailand's flood crest reaches Ayutthaya, with the dam at its ceiling.
About 3.35 million people are affected, and more rain is due from Sunday.
AT THIS HOURAbout 3.35 million people affected in 30 provinces and BangkokAbout 1.18 million households in 191 districts. (Handled with care.)
WHEN IT ARRIVESThe crest at Ayutthaya now; more rain Sunday to WednesdayCombined flow at Ayutthaya should stay below 3,000 m³/s.
WHAT IS ALREADY IN FORCEThe Chao Phraya Dam at its 2,500 m³/s ceilingStepped up early on Friday, as the crest passed Nakhon Sawan.
Thailand's flood crest reached Ayutthaya on Saturday, with water more than a metre deep in Bang Ban. Upstream, the Chao Phraya Dam is releasing 2,500 cubic metres a second, the most it is allowed. About 3.35 million people in 30 provinces and Bangkok are affected. Measured against 2011, this flood is smaller: about 4.3 billion m³ of runoff has passed Nakhon Sawan, against about 15 billion then. (Handled with care.)
Read the full storySINCE YESTERDAY — WHAT MOVED
20 systems moved since yesterday's edition · 11 held steady.
↑ ESCALATED6
BIHAR — THE GANDAK RUNS ABOVE ITS HIGHEST RECORDED FLOODintensified→215 MI W OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS — HURRICANE NOLO INTENSIFIES RAPIDLYfirmer→VICTORIA — HEAVY RAIN IN GIPPSLAND AND A MODERATE FLOOD ON THE WERRIBEEintensified→THE ARGENTINE NORTH-EAST — ORANGE STORMSintensified→SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA — ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IN THE SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLSintensified→NORTHERN CAPE — HAIL AND LIGHTNING UNDER A YELLOW WARNINGintensified→▽ EASED12
EASTERN SPAIN — RED STEPS DOWN TO ORANGEweakened→THE U.S. GULF COAST — FLOOD RISK MOVES EAST FROM TEXASslipped→SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA — HURRICANE RACHEL EASES TO 90 MPHweakened→THE RHINE AT KAUB — BACK ABOVE ZERO AT 10 CMweakened→NIGERIA — A HIGH FLOOD RISK IN 17 STATES TO SUNDAYslipped→ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA — RIVERS OVERFLOW AND SLOPES STAY ON ALERTslipped→SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — THE ATMOSPHERIC-RIVER FRONT EASES TO SHOWERSweakened→THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST — THE STORM EPISODE EASESweakened→NORTHERN MINAS GERAIS — HUMIDITY FALLS TO 12% UNDER AN ORANGE ALERTweakened→SRI LANKA — HEAVY SHOWERS ABOVE 75 MM IN SEVEN PROVINCESslipped→THE SOUTH ISLAND — A RAIN AND WIND FRONTweakened→BANGLADESH — NOT CHECKED TODAY: THE RIVER BULLETIN COULD NOT BE READweakened
✓ CLEARED1
EAST OF JAPAN — SURIGAE TURNS EXTRATROPICAL
HELD STEADYCENTRAL THAILAND — THE CREST REACHES AYUTTHAYA · THE NORTHERN MARIANAS — TYPHOON CHOI-WAN PASSES AT 100 MPH · SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO — AN 80% CHANCE OF A DEPRESSION · THE NORTH ATLANTIC — STILL NO HURRICANE · THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF — NO STORM IN SIGHT · THE SOUTHERN OCEANS — OFF-SEASON · BRITAIN — FAIR WEATHER · NORTHERN ITALY — A CALM SATURDAY · CENTRAL CHINA — NOT CHECKED TODAY: THE NATIONAL WARNING BOARD WAS NOT READ · CENTRAL AMERICA — NOT CHECKED TODAY: THE REGIONAL BOARDS WERE NOT REFRESHED · PAKISTAN — NOT CHECKED TODAY: THE NATIONAL LEDGER WAS NOT REFRESHED
WHERE IT IS — THE BOARD
heatsevererain / floodtropicalfire weathersmoke / airdroughtwinterquiet✦new↑escalated▽eased=heldsince yesterday
hemispheric contrast — Two oceans, opposite records — the Pacific carries two hurricanes and a typhoon, while the Atlantic still has no hurricane, five days from the latest first-hurricane date on record..
| SYSTEM | HAZARD | PEAK | TREND | TOUCHES | CONF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CENTRAL THAILAND — THE CREST REACHES AYUTTHAYA, THE DAM AT ITS CEILING CRESTING | water | 2,500 m³/s | ▲ cresting | 3 | R |
| The crest reaches Ayutthaya as the Chao Phraya Dam releases its ceiling of 2,500 m³/s, and about 3.35 million people are affected | ||||||
| 2 | BIHAR — THE GANDAK RUNS ABOVE ITS HIGHEST RECORDED FLOOD CRESTING | water | +22 cm | ▲ cresting | 2 | R |
| The Gandak runs about 22 cm above its highest recorded flood level at Dumariaghat, and the Ganga is above danger at Patna | ||||||
| 3 | EASTERN SPAIN — RED STEPS DOWN TO ORANGE, WITH NO DEATHS EASING | water | 129.8 mm | ▼ easing | 1 | R |
| The red has ended on Spain's Mediterranean coast; orange and yellow remain, for up to 50 mm in an hour on the southern Valencia coast | ||||||
| 4 | THE U.S. GULF COAST — FLOOD RISK MOVES EAST FROM TEXAS ACTIVE | water | 8 in | ► ongoing | 3 | C |
| The flood risk eases to slight in central Texas and slides east, with 4 to 8 inches possible from New Orleans to Tallahassee by Monday on saturated ground | ||||||
| 5 | THE NORTHERN MARIANAS — TYPHOON CHOI-WAN PASSES AT 100 MPH BUILDING | tropical | 100 mph | ▲ building | 3 | C |
| Typhoon Choi-wan, at 100 mph, passes about 50 miles north-north-east of Agrihan under a typhoon warning, and should reach Category 3 tonight | ||||||
| 6 | 215 MI W OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS — HURRICANE NOLO INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY BUILDING | tropical | 110 mph | ▲ building | 1 | C |
| Hurricane Nolo, at 110 mph, is intensifying rapidly and should become a major hurricane within 12 hours | ||||||
| 7 | SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA — HURRICANE RACHEL EASES TO 90 MPH EASING | tropical | 90 mph | ▼ easing | 1 | C |
| Hurricane Rachel has eased to 90 mph, about 270 miles south-south-west of the southern tip of Baja California, and stays a hurricane over open water | ||||||
| 8 | NEPAL — MORE HEAVY RAIN AFTER LATE-SEPTEMBER FLOODS KILLED 27 EASING | water | — | ▼ easing | — | R |
| A heavy-rain advisory runs from Saturday to Tuesday after the floods and landslides of Sep 24 to 27 left 27 dead and 4 missing | ||||||
| 9 | THE RHINE AT KAUB — BACK ABOVE ZERO AT 10 CM EASING | drought | 10 cm | ▼ easing | 2 | C |
| The Kaub gauge has climbed from a record −6 cm on Thursday to 10 cm this morning | ||||||
| 10 | VICTORIA — HEAVY RAIN IN GIPPSLAND AND A MODERATE FLOOD ON THE WERRIBEE ACTIVE | water | 60 mm | ► ongoing | 1 | C |
| Heavy rain of 25 to 40 mm in six hours, locally 60 mm, brings a flash-flood risk to Gippsland into Sunday | ||||||
| 11 | NIGERIA — A HIGH FLOOD RISK IN 17 STATES TO SUNDAY ACTIVE | water | — | ► ongoing | — | R |
| A high flood-risk advisory covers 17 states through Sunday, around the Cross River and Imo basins | ||||||
| 12 | THE ARGENTINE NORTH-EAST — ORANGE STORMS, GUSTS ABOVE 100 KM/H PEAK | severe | 100+ km/h | ● at peak | — | R |
| Orange storm warnings cover Misiones, Corrientes, Formosa and Chaco, with 50 to 90 mm and gusts above 100 km/h | ||||||
| 13 | ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA — RIVERS OVERFLOW AND SLOPES STAY ON ALERT ACTIVE | water | — | ► ongoing | — | R |
| Eight rivers and streams have overflowed in Esmeraldas and Pastaza, with rain to Monday | ||||||
| 14 | SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — THE ATMOSPHERIC-RIVER FRONT EASES TO SHOWERS EASING | water | 70+ km/h | ▼ easing | — | R |
| Rain from the atmospheric-river front eases to showers on Sunday, with gusts above 70 km/h in the cordillera | ||||||
| 15 | THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST — THE STORM EPISODE EASES EASING | water | — | ▼ easing | — | R |
| The highland storms ease, with a last light-to-moderate round over the Asir–Jazan border and western Al-Baha this afternoon, clearing tonight | ||||||
| 16 | SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA — ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IN THE SAN DIEGO FOOTHILLS ACTIVE | fire | 40 mph | ► ongoing | — | C |
| Humidity of 15 to 20% and gusts of 30 to 40 mph bring elevated fire weather to the San Diego foothills today | ||||||
| 17 | NORTHERN CAPE — HAIL AND LIGHTNING UNDER A YELLOW WARNING ACTIVE | severe | 60 km/h | ► ongoing | — | R |
| Yellow level 2 warnings cover storms with hail and 40 to 60 km/h winds over the eastern Northern Cape and Beaufort West, and disruptive rain in the western Eastern Cape… | ||||||
| 18 | NORTHERN MINAS GERAIS — HUMIDITY FALLS TO 12% UNDER AN ORANGE ALERT ACTIVE | fire | 12% RH | ► ongoing | — | R |
| An orange low-humidity alert covers northern Minas Gerais, with relative humidity down to 12% | ||||||
| 19 | SRI LANKA — HEAVY SHOWERS ABOVE 75 MM IN SEVEN PROVINCES ACTIVE | water | 75+ mm | ► ongoing | — | R |
| Heavy showers above 75 mm are expected at places in seven provinces and Mannar district today. | ||||||
| 20 | THE SOUTH ISLAND — A RAIN AND WIND FRONT, DRYING SUNDAY EASING | water | — | ▼ easing | — | R |
| A front brings heavy rain to Fiordland and strong winds to Southland, Otago and the Lakes, reaching the lower North Island before a ridge dries it out on Sunday. | ||||||
| 21 | SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO — AN 80% CHANCE OF A DEPRESSION EMERGING | tropical | — | ▲ emerging | — | C |
| A low is expected to form south of southern Mexico late this weekend, with an 80% chance of becoming a depression within seven days | ||||||
| 22 | THE NORTH ATLANTIC — STILL NO HURRICANE, FIVE DAYS FROM THE RECORD NO-SIGNAL | tropical | — | — quiet | — | C |
| The Atlantic has no hurricane in 2026 and no storm expected for seven days | ||||||
QUIET — THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF · THE SOUTHERN OCEANS · BRITAIN · NORTHERN ITALY · NOT CHECKED TODAY — BANGLADESH · CENTRAL CHINA · CENTRAL AMERICA · PAKISTAN
■ OPEN THE LIVE MAP →EVENT · VENUEWHENSHELTERTHE WEATHER THERE
ONGOING
The Big EEastern States Exposition, West SpringfieldSep 18 – Oct 4open-airSat–SunDry, sun and cloud · 7–20°C
Les Voiles de Saint-TropezPort of Saint-TropezSep 26 – Oct 4open-airSat–SunDry, sun and cloud; breezy, gusts to 45 km/h Sunday · 20–25°C