CENTRAL THAILAND — THE CREST REACHES AYUTTHAYA, THE DAM AT ITS CEILING

On the board · October 3, 2026 →

CRESTING · October 3, 2026 · NO. 1003

THE WATER

Thailand's flood crest reached Ayutthaya on Saturday, with water more than a metre deep in Bang Ban. Upstream, the Chao Phraya Dam is releasing 2,500 cubic metres a second, the most it is allowed. About 3.35 million people in 30 provinces and Bangkok are affected. Measured against 2011, this flood is smaller: about 4.3 billion m³ of runoff has passed Nakhon Sawan, against about 15 billion then. (Handled with care.)

Flow at Nakhon Sawan has eased to about 2,600 m³/s, and the combined flow at Ayutthaya should stay below 3,000. Sena, Bang Ban and Phak Hai are the worst-hit districts. The toll stands at 24 in the authorities' count of this event since mid-September; a broader count runs higher. A flood expert expects this one to last about a month, not the two to three months of 2011.

Forecasters expect a fresh round of rain from Sunday to Wednesday, first in the north and north-east, then over the Central Plains and Bangkok, onto a basin with no room left. For basin water managers, pump-station crews and district relief offices, the call is how much to drain toward the Gulf before it arrives.

THE RECORD

27 turning points on record since Aug 21 — the 8 most recent shown.

Oct 2↑ moved up the board

Oct 1building → cresting

Sep 30↑ moved up the board

Sep 29easing → building

Sep 28peak → easing · intensified sharply

Sep 27active → peak

Sep 26↑ moved up the board

Sep 25easing → active

THE FACTS

NOT 2011About 1,200 mm fell in the North this season, against 1,500 in 2011; the flood should last about a month, not two to three.

THE TOLL24 dead in the authorities' count of this event since mid-September; a broader count runs higher. (Handled with care.)

AYUTTHAYASena, Bang Ban and Phak Hai are worst hit; Bang Ban's water is more than 1 m deep.

AND ELSEWHERE — BIHAR'S RIVERSThe Gandak runs about 22 cm above its highest recorded flood, and about 4.3 million people are affected in Bihar.

AND ELSEWHERE — TYPHOON CHOI-WANTyphoon Choi-wan, at 100 mph, leaves the northern Marianas and heads for the Ogasawara islands on Monday.

WHO IT TOUCHES

Public safetyThailand's crest at Ayutthaya, Bihar's breached embankments and a typhoon warning in the northern Marianas.

Supply chainsThe Rhine recovers from a record low, and the U.S. flood risk moves onto the I-10 corridor.

AgricultureThailand's rice belt and the north Bihar plain under flood.

CONNECTED

Intensity is not exposure — Hurricane Nolo nears major strength over near-empty atolls, while rain without a name affects about 3.35 million people in Thailand..

Water on the ground — Thailand's crest and Bihar's rivers carry the season's largest counts of people affected..

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