No. 1003

Sources

No. 1003 · Saturday, October 3, 2026

Every figure on this edition's cover traces to a source below or it was cut. Full ledger maintained in the issue record.

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  1. 1Royal Irrigation Department and the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation via Nation Thailand, Thairath and Thai PBS World, Oct 2-3 2026 (reported) — the northern runoff mass that peaked at Nakhon Sawan, now about 2,600 m3/s, reached Ayutthaya on Oct 3 (Sena, Bang Ban and Phak Hai worst; Bang Ban floodwater over 1 m); the Chao Phraya Dam release stepped to its authorised ceiling of 2,500 m3/s at 03:00 Oct 2; combined flow at Ayutthaya expected to stay below 3,000 m3/s.
  2. 2Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation cumulative count via Nation Thailand and Khaosod English, Oct 2 2026 (reported) — 3,352,395 people and 1,177,404 households affected in 191 districts of 30 provinces and Bangkok; toll 24 in the authorities' count of the current event since mid-September; a broader count runs higher; relayed, not re-counted.
  3. 3Assoc. Prof. Seree Supratid, flood expert, via Nation Thailand and Thai PBS World, Oct 2-3 2026 (reported) — no repeat of 2011: runoff through Nakhon Sawan about 4.3 billion m3 this year against about 15 billion in 2011; rainfall about 1,200 mm in the North (1,500 in 2011) and about 1,000 mm in the Central region (1,400); duration expected at most about one month against two to three.
  4. 4Thai Meteorological Department outlook via Nation Thailand, Oct 3 2026 (reported) — a high-pressure system from China brings a fresh round of rain Oct 4-7, first to the North and Northeast, then the Central region including Bangkok, the East and the upper South.
  5. 5AEMET avisos via El Debate, Infobae and Vozpópuli, Oct 2-3 2026 (reported) — the red phase has ended; on Oct 3 the live levels are orange and yellow, 25 avisos for the Comunitat Valenciana; orange for up to 50 l/m2 in 1 hour on the southern Valencia and northern Alicante coast and up to 100 l/m2 in 12 hours in northern Castellón; a new DANA isolates over the western peninsula from Sun Oct 4, pivoting instability inland (Castellón, Valencia, northern Alicante, southern Tarragona, Lleida, Teruel, Cuenca) through Mon Oct 5.
  6. 6Measured totals and episode reporting via Spanish desks (El Debate, Infobae, tiempo.com), Oct 2-3 2026 (reported) — Eslida 129.8 l/m2 and Xodos 112.8 l/m2 on Oct 2; the most violent cell of Oct 2, estimated at about 600 l/m2 in one hour, fired over the sea, sparing the coast; no deaths or serious injuries across the episode.
  7. 7Météo-France vigilance via France 3 Occitanie and CNews, Oct 3 2026 (reported) — one department in orange, Hérault, for rain and flooding 06:00-16:00, 70-100 mm, locally 150 mm, about 40 mm an hour; Gard yellow; a second episode around Oct 8-10 at low confidence.
  8. 8NHC Hurricane Rachel Public Advisory 25, 200 AM MST Sat Oct 3 2026 (0900Z), read directly from nhc.noaa.gov — 19.4 N 111.8 W, about 270 mi (435 km) SSW of the southern tip of Baja California; maximum sustained 90 mph (150 km/h); 969 mb; W at 5 mph, turning WNW; additional slow weakening, expected to remain a hurricane for several days; no coastal watches or warnings; swells causing life-threatening surf on the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California peninsula through the weekend.
  9. 9NHC Hurricane Rachel Public Advisory 24, 0300Z Oct 3 2026 — maximum sustained 100 mph, 966 mb (down from 120 mph, 950 mb on Oct 2).
  10. 10CPHC Hurricane Nolo Public Advisory 51, 1100 PM HST Fri Oct 2 2026 (0900Z), read directly from nhc.noaa.gov — 23.3 N 169.6 W, about 150 mi SSE of Maro Reef and 215 mi W of French Frigate Shoals; maximum sustained 110 mph (175 km/h); 964 mb; W at 10 mph, speeding up; rapid intensification, forecast to become a major hurricane within 12 hours; Tropical Storm Warning for Papahānaumokuākea from French Frigate Shoals to Lisianski Island, including Maro Reef; large surf likely to inundate some low-lying atolls; the centre stays just south of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands.
  11. 11NWS Tiyan, Guam, Typhoon Choi-wan (26W) Intermediate Advisory 13A, 450 PM ChST Sat Oct 3 2026, read directly via api.weather.gov — 19.4 N 145.9 E, about 50 mi NNE of Agrihan and 295 mi N of Saipan; maximum sustained 100 mph; NE at 7 mph, moving away from the Marianas; forecast to become a Category 3 typhoon tonight; Typhoon Warning for Alamagan, Agrihan and Pagan; Tropical Storm Warning for Tinian and Saipan.
  12. 12JMA typhoon bulletin via Weathernews, Oct 3 2026 (reported) — Typhoon Choi-wan (No. 27), 970 hPa, 35 m/s, large and strong, intensifying to very strong by Oct 4; approaching the Ogasawara (Bonin) islands from the east around Oct 5-6, with high waves about 6 m on Oct 4 and warning-level rain possible on Oct 6; then recurving north over open ocean east of mainland Japan; Surigae (No. 26) has completed extratropical transition.
  13. 13WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Days 1-3, issued Oct 3 2026 — Day 1 Slight over central Texas along I-35 with Marginal over the Mid-South and Gulf; Day 2 Slight over the central Gulf Coast and South Texas (Corpus Christi to Brownsville); Day 3 Slight over the Southeast (northern Florida, southern Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas); a tropical-moisture plume with 4-8 in from New Orleans to Tallahassee on saturated soils; the Day 1 Moderate of Oct 2 not renewed.
  14. 14SPC Day 1 and Day 2 Convective Outlooks and Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook, Oct 3 2026 — no categorical severe risk Oct 3-4; Elevated fire weather in Southern California (San Diego foothills), relative humidity 15-20%, gusts 30-40 mph; no Critical area.
  15. 15IMD monsoon withdrawal line and CWC river levels via ETV Bharat and ThePrint, Oct 2-3 2026 (reported) — the south-west monsoon is actively withdrawing (line through Gurdaspur and Naliya), no major western disturbance in the next few days; the Gandak about 22 cm above its highest recorded flood level at Dumariaghat with embankment breaches in Saran and Muzaffarpur; the Ganga above danger at Patna; the Kosi falling; about 4.3 million people affected in Bihar; Uttar Pradesh toll from the Sep 25-28 spell about 56-72, cumulative.
  16. 16NDRRMA and DHM via the Himalayan Times and the Kathmandu Post, Oct 1-3 2026 (reported) — late-September floods and landslides (Sep 24-27): 27 dead, 4 missing, 8 injured, 542 incidents, 1,082 families affected; the Himlung Himal avalanche killed 15, all Nepali workers and support staff; a heavy-rain advisory for Oct 3-6. Distinct from the August glacial-collapse disaster.
  17. 17PegelOnline (WSV) Kaub gauge, read directly, 11:15 CEST Oct 3 2026 — 10 cm, state low; daily value -6 cm on Oct 1, a record low, and about -1 cm on Oct 2 (via ZDF and t-online, reported); full-load navigation needs about 1.50 m.
  18. 18DWD warnings page, Oct 3 2026 — no warnings active for Germany.
  19. 19BoM Victoria warnings read from reg.bom.gov.au, Oct 3 2026 07:22 GMT — Severe Weather Warning for heavy rain over West and South Gippsland and parts of Central, East Gippsland and South-West districts, 25-40 mm in 6 hours, isolated 60 mm, flash-flood risk into Sunday; the North East severe thunderstorm warning cancelled; Flood Watch for Gippsland, North East, Central, South-West and North-West Victoria; riverine flood warnings including a moderate flood warning for the Werribee River and minor warnings for the Macalister, Thomson and Bunyip; the low moves into the Tasman Sunday, flood risk into Monday.
  20. 20NIHSA and NEMA national flood advisory for Sep 28-Oct 4 2026 via The Whistler and The Guardian Nigeria (reported) — high flood risk in 17 states around the Cross River and Imo basins, about 6,800 communities exposed; more than 3,500 displaced in Anambra (Ogbaru) and about 2,000 houses affected in Enugu; officials attribute this week's flooding to rainfall and river rise, not a new Lagdo release. No Oct 3 dated bulletin found.
  21. 21Saudi National Center for Meteorology forecast for Sat 03/10/2026 via Saudi Gazette and Khaleej Times (reported) — the south-western highland storm episode eases; a residual light-to-moderate round over the Asir-Jazan border and western Al-Baha on Saturday afternoon, clearing tonight; no casualties reported.
  22. 22Ecuador SNGR/INAMHI and Colombia IDEAM alerts via Expreso, El Tiempo and Semana, Oct 2-3 2026 (reported) — in Ecuador 8 water bodies overflowed (5 in Esmeraldas, 3 in Pastaza), rain through about Oct 5; in Colombia red alerts in the Magdalena-Cauca basin and landslide alerts for about 304 municipalities, 36 of them red.
  23. 23Dirección Meteorológica de Chile aviso A519/2026 and SENAPRED alerts via Meteored.cl and BioBioChile, Oct 2-3 2026 (reported) — a category-1 atmospheric river (category 2 in Aysén and Los Lagos); rain on Oct 3 easing to showers Oct 4; gusts above 50 km/h, above 70 km/h in the cordillera; an advisory for clouds with tornadic characteristics in Los Ríos and Los Lagos Friday-Saturday, no confirmed tornado; rain and hail in Santiago Oct 2.
  24. 24SMN alerts via La Nación and Infobae, Oct 3 2026 (reported) — orange for storms in Misiones, Corrientes, Formosa and Chaco, 50-90 mm, gusts above 100 km/h; orange for snow in the south-western Chubut cordillera, 10-30 cm; the San Juan Zonda alert downgraded from orange to yellow.
  25. 25Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology rain advisory, Oct 3 2026, via Lanka Newspapers (reported) — heavy showers above 75 mm at places in seven provinces and Mannar district.
  26. 26INMET alerts, Oct 3 2026, via O Tempo (reported) — orange for low humidity in northern Minas Gerais, relative humidity down to 12%; an orange storm strip in the Centre-South; the red heat alert of Sep 26-30 has expired.
  27. 27MetService watches for Sat Oct 3 2026 via 1News (reported) — heavy rain watch for Fiordland north of Doubtful Sound; strong wind watch for Southland, Otago and the Lakes; rain across the South Island reaching the lower North Island, drying Sunday under a ridge; no orange or red warning.
  28. 28South African Weather Service warnings for Oct 3 2026 via SAnews and IOL (reported) — Yellow Level 2 severe thunderstorms with hail, lightning and 40-60 km/h winds over the eastern Northern Cape and Beaufort West; Yellow Level 2 disruptive rain over the western Eastern Cape into Sunday; no orange or red.
  29. 29NHC Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026, read directly — an area of low pressure forecast to form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico; a tropical depression likely by the middle of next week; formation chance near 0 percent through 48 hours, 80 percent through 7 days. The next name on the 2026 eastern Pacific list is Simon.
  30. 30NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook, 200 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026, read directly — for the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf: tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.
  31. 31AccuWeather and the Tampa Bay Times, Oct 2-3 2026 (reported) — no Atlantic hurricane so far in 2026; the latest first-hurricane date on record is Oct 8, 1905.
  32. 32RSMC Nadi, BoM and Météo-France La Réunion seasonal status, Oct 3 2026 (reported) — the South Pacific, Australian and South-West Indian Ocean cyclone seasons begin Nov 1 or later; no tropical cyclone active.
  33. 33UK Met Office National Severe Weather Warnings page, read Oct 3 2026 — no warnings in force through Oct 9.
  34. 34Dipartimento della Protezione Civile national bulletin for Sat Oct 3 2026, and AllertaLiguria (all green), read Oct 3 — no significant phenomena forecast.