THE DOME
The map shrank; the core did not. Heat Advisories read about 4 , down from 13 the previous morning — Kentucky, Indiana, Middle Tennessee, southern Illinois and south-east Missouri plus Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands — with the index still to about 108 °F in Middle Tennessee. The short-range discussion has the heat moderating northward while the core holds over the central and southern Plains, the Tennessee Valley and the lower Mississippi Valley.
THE RECORD
54 turning points on record since Jun 9 — the 8 most recent shown.
Sep 19 ↑ moved up the board
Sep 18 ↑ firmed
Sep 17 active → building
Sep 16 ▽ slipped down the board
Sep 15 ▽ eased
Sep 13 easing → active
Sep 12 ↑ moved up the board
Sep 11 building → easing · eased sharply
WHO IT TOUCHES
Events a national holiday weekend under a rain shield, hail over outdoor operations, and a shrinking but real heat index
Health a heat index that is still dangerous on a smaller map, and three flood recoveries where the health risk outlives the water
Energy an easing but still loaded evening peak, a distribution network under a holiday rain shield, and a river that constrains fuel movement
CONNECTED
One airmass retreating is the other's forecast — the hot core and the hail risk sit on opposite sides of the same boundary.
SOURCES — AP and weather.com relays Aug 1-3 · CBS / Yahoo (125M alerts) · City of Philadelphia · Media relays Aug 1-3 · NBC10 Philadelphia · NOAA HeatRisk · NOAA WPC excessive-rainfall discussion, Sep 17 2026 · NOAA WPC short-range public discussion, 0452Z Sep 18 2026 · NOAA Weather Prediction Center, Short-Range Public Discussion, 0625Z Sep 19 2026: heavy rain and flash flooding greatest across the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes Saturday, expanding into the Mid-Atlantic and North-east Sunday; a concentrated heavy-rain threat over Montana; isolated flash flooding over south Florida; record-challenging South-Central, lower-Mississippi-Valley and South-east heat in the 90s to low 100s °F near daily records. · NOAA Weather Prediction Center, Short-Range Public Discussion, 0632Z Sep 20 2026: excessive rain and flash flooding across the northern and central Rockies, the Plains, the Midwest, the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic through Sunday, especially where soils remain saturated from previous rainfall; the severe threat shifting into the central and southern Appalachians and the South-east on Monday; slow-moving downpours over south Florida through Monday; hot and humid conditions over the central and southern Plains, the Tennessee Valley and the lower Mississippi Valley, moderating northward. · NWS Extreme Heat Warnings · NWS PHL CLI (official climate report) · NWS Philadelphia · NWS active Extreme Heat Warnings Aug 3 · NWS active Extreme Heat Warnings Aug 4 · NWS active Extreme Heat Warnings Aug 5 · NWS active Extreme Heat Warnings Aug 7 · NWS active Extreme Heat Warnings Aug 8 · NWS active Extreme Heat Warnings ~07:50Z Aug 11, counted from the raw feature array · NWS active alerts (api.weather.gov), Extreme Heat Warning query, read pre-dawn Aug 23 2026 · NWS active alerts, Extreme Heat Warning query, Aug 13 2026 ~07:30 UTC, counted from the raw feature array · NWS active alerts, Extreme Heat Warning query, Aug 16 2026 ~07:00 UTC, counted from the raw feature array · NWS active alerts, Extreme Heat Warning query, Aug 18 2026 ~07:00 UTC · NWS active alerts, Extreme Heat Warning query, pre-dawn Aug 20 2026, counted from the raw feature array · NWS active alerts, Extreme Heat Warning query, pre-dawn Aug 21 2026, counted from the raw feature array · NWS active alerts, Extreme Heat Warning query, read pre-dawn Aug 22 2026 · NWS active alerts, Extreme Heat Warning query, read pre-dawn Aug 24 2026 · NWS active-alerts API, Sep 17 2026 · NWS active-alerts API, Sep 18 2026 · NWS active-alerts API, counted by event type ~10:30 UTC Aug 28 2026 · NWS active-alerts API, counted event by event ~07:15 UTC Sep 8 2026 · NWS active-alerts API, per-event queries, Sep 16 2026 · NWS active-alerts API, read Sep 11 2026 · NWS active-alerts API, read about 0730Z Sep 19 2026 with targeted per-event queries: Heat Advisory 13, up from 10 the previous morning, across Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama and Kansas plus Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, with a heat index to about 108 °F in Middle Tennessee and about 107 °F in Alabama; total active alerts 362, of which land 68 and marine 294 — the marine count again drove the total. The /count per-event object did not surface this run, so per-event figures come from ?event= feeds. Event counts are live snapshots that can shift within the hour; the day-over-day direction is the robust part. · NWS active-alerts API, read about 0740Z Sep 20 2026 with targeted per-event queries: Heat Advisory about 4, down from 13 the previous morning, across Kentucky, Indiana, Middle Tennessee, southern Illinois and south-east Missouri plus Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, with a heat index to about 108 °F in Middle Tennessee and about 105 °F in Louisville; total active alerts 428, of which land 104 and marine 324 — the marine count again drove the total. The /count per-event object did not surface this run, so per-event figures come from ?event= feeds. Event counts are live snapshots that can shift within the hour; the day-over-day direction is the robust part. · NWS active-alerts API, read ~0715Z Sep 15 2026 · NWS active-alerts API, read ~07:05 UTC Sep 13 2026 · NWS active-alerts API, targeted feature queries with the national total from /alerts/active/count, read ~07:05 UTC Sep 12 2026 · NWS active-alerts alerts feed, counted by event type ~10:15 UTC Aug 27 2026 · NWS national active-alert tally Aug 4 · NWS national active-alert tally Aug 5 · NWS national active-alert tally Aug 7 · NWS national active-alert tally Aug 8 · Tomorrow.io · Tomorrow.io get_weather_forecast · WPC · WPC 12Z · WPC Day 3–7 · WPC Day 3–7 hazards · WPC Jul 24 · WPC PMDSPD 0651Z Aug 4 · WPC PMDSPD 1959Z Aug 6 · WPC PMDSPD 217 PM EDT Aug 7 · WPC PMDSPD 3:44 AM EDT Aug 5 · WPC PMDSPD 3:58 PM EDT Aug 10 · WPC PMDSPD Aug 3 · WPC Short Range · WPC Short Range 01Z · WPC Short Range 08Z · WPC discussion, Aug 24 2026 · api.weather.gov