WESTERN LUZON AND PALAWAN — THE SOUTH-WEST MONSOON, NOT THE TYPHOON, IS THE LOCAL DRIVER

The local driver is the monsoon, not the typhoon offshore. The habagat affects western Luzon, with flash-flood and landslide risk over Palawan and isolated thunderstorms over Mindoro and Metro Manila. The typhoon on this board is far offshore with no effect inside the area of responsibility — a distinction worth keeping, because the local hazard is real and the storm everyone is watching is not the cause of it.

2 turning points on record since Sep 17.