THE RISK WINDOW
It re-fired instead of clearing. Fresh weekend thunderstorm warnings over the Mediterranean coast and the Balearic Islands , with Ibiza and Formentera flagged , and rain on the Cantabrian coast ; stability elsewhere. A re-firing rather than the clean high-pressure rebuild the week's forecast carried. The European convective anchor is offline this run, so this is reported through a press desk.
THE RECORD
8 turning points on record since Sep 11.
Sep 19 ▽ eased
Sep 18 cresting → easing · eased sharply
Sep 17 easing → cresting · intensified sharply
Sep 16 active → easing
Sep 15 easing → active · became confirmed
Sep 13 ▽ eased sharply
Sep 12 active → easing · eased sharply
Sep 11 appeared, active
CONNECTED
Warm and unstable at both ends of the Mediterranean — one official warning, one forecast signal.
SOURCES — AEMET Spain, Sep 19 2026, through Infobae and Ultima Hora — REPORTED: the orange warning over Ibiza, Formentera, southern Mallorca and the Sierra de Tramuntana for rain to 50 mm in an hour was a FRIDAY window running to 11:59 and has expired; Saturday sees high pressure rebuild with general improvement and residual instability only over the south-east peninsula, Cabo de la Nao and the Pitiusas. · CARRIED and not re-anchored this run: Bangladesh's FFWC river risk, which would not refresh; the Chinese south-west and north-west rain, where CMA and NMC pages were WAF and CAPTCHA gated and aggregator relay returned year-mixing content naming older storms that could not be verified against a primary service and was SCREENED OUT; and MetService New Zealand's central-NZ trough with rain and snow warnings, reached only through an RNZ relay and marked thin. KMA is tracking Dujuan as its No. 25; the Bureau of Meteorology reads quiet in austral spring. ESTOFEX remains offline, so the European convective anchor is absent again this run. · Cappucci / severe-weather.eu (unverified, discourse) · DHMZ and Meteoalarm-Croatia via Croatia Week, The Watchers and severe-weather.eu, Sep 11 2026 (reported) · ESTOFEX storm forecast issued 12:29 UTC Sep 14 2026 · GDACS RSS, Sep 12 2026 (aggregator, read as a lead) · GDACS RSS, Sep 13 2026 (aggregator, read as a lead) · Italy Dipartimento della Protezione Civile bollettino issued 14:11 CEST Sep 14 for Sep 15 2026 · Italy Protezione Civile bollettino issued 14:26 CEST Sep 15 2026 for Sep 16 · Italy Protezione Civile via met-press relay, Sep 17 2026 (reported) · Italy Protezione Civile via met-press relay, Sep 18 2026 (reported) · Meteoalarm warnings JSON feed and AEMET, read Sep 15 2026 · Protezione Civile Italy via Fanpage, Il Messaggero and the Quotidiano dei Contribuenti, Sep 11 2026 (reported) · Protezione Civile Italy via Meteoweb, Fanpage and Gazzetta del Sud, Sep 13 2026 (reported) · Protezione Civile Italy via Meteoweb, Fanpage, Meteo.it and Newsroom24, Sep 12 2026 (reported) · Protezione Civile Italy, Sep 19 2026, through MeteoAlarm and press — REPORTED: residual YELLOW only on the Apennine and southern sector; the Genova Low is gone. The .gov.it bulletin was not directly fetched this run. · Spain AEMET via El Cronista, Sep 20 2026 (reported; aemet.es not directly fetched): fresh weekend thunderstorm warnings over the Mediterranean coast and the Balearic Islands, with Ibiza and Formentera flagged, and rain on the Cantabrian coast; stability elsewhere. ESTOFEX remains offline, so the European convective anchor is missing this run. · Spain AEMET via Meteoalarm and press, Sep 17 2026 (reported) · Spain AEMET via press relay, Sep 18 2026 (reported) · The Watchers and severe-weather.eu, Sep 12 2026 (reported) · Tomorrow.io v4 REST forecast, 38 of 38 monitored locations, 09:15 UTC Sep 11 2026 (internal context) · severe-weather.eu and circulating media, Sep 16-17 2026 (unverified/debunked as a 2026 event)
THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY · EVENT← TODAY'S COVER