THE STORM
Two storms that do not exist yet are near certain by midweek. EP99 , about 400 mi south-south-west of Manzanillo , at 90 percent over 48 hours and 90 percent over 7 days , moving north, with the south-western and west-central Mexican coast advised to monitor . EP98 , well south-west of Baja, also 90/90 . The former TD Fifteen-E east-south-east of Hawaii is near 0 percent at 48 hours and 60 percent over 7 days . Up from 80/80 and 70/80.
THE RECORD
28 turning points on record since Aug 16 — the 8 most recent shown.
Sep 19 ↑ moved up the board
Sep 18 ▽ slipped down the board
Sep 17 easing → building
Sep 15 → held
Sep 15 ▽ slipped down the board
Sep 15 ▽ designation Tropical Storm→Tropical Depression
Sep 13 → held
Sep 13 → held
CONNECTED
The tropical energy is in the Pacific — and both basins said so in advance.
SOURCES — NHC E-Pac TWO 11:00 PM PDT Aug 26 2026 and the active tropical cyclones page · NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook and active-cyclones page, Sep 13 2026 · NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 1100 PM PDT Sep 14 2026 · NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 17 2026 · NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 11:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 18 2026 (Pierce, Evans, Gibbs): EP98 well south-west of southern Baja at 80 percent over 48 hours and 80 percent over 7 days, a tropical depression likely this weekend, moving west to west-north-west at 10 to 15 mph; EP99 well south to south-west of south-western Mexico at 70 percent over 48 hours and 80 percent over 7 days, a depression late this weekend or early next week, moving north; the remnants of TD15-E east-south-east of Hawaii risen to 10 percent over 48 hours and 50 percent over 7 days. The NHC active-cyclones page shows no named system in the Atlantic, East Pacific or Central Pacific. · NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 11:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 19 2026 (forecasters Pierce and Gibbs): EP99, about 400 mi south-south-west of Manzanillo, 90 percent over 48 hours and 90 percent over 7 days, moving north, with interests along the south-western and west-central coast of Mexico advised to monitor its progress; EP98, well south-west of Baja California, 90 percent over 48 hours and 90 percent over 7 days, moving west-north-west at 10 to 15 mph; the former TD Fifteen-E east-south-east of Hawaii near 0 percent over 48 hours and 60 percent over 7 days, with a depression possible south or south-east of Hawaii mid-to-late next week. Up from 80/80 and 70/80 in the previous issuance. · NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, Sep 17 2026 · NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook 11:00 PM PDT Aug 27 2026 and the active-cyclones page · NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook 11:00 PM PDT Sep 7 2026 and the active-cyclones page · NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook and active-cyclones page, Sep 11 2026 · NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook and active-cyclones page, Sep 12 2026 · NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 11:00 PM PDT Aug 15 2026 · NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 11:00 PM PDT Aug 17 2026 · NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 11:00 PM PDT Aug 20 2026 · NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 11:00 PM PDT Aug 21 2026 · NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 11:00 PM PDT Aug 22 2026 · NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 11:00 PM PDT Aug 23 2026 · NHC Iselle Adv 10 · NHC Iselle Adv 8 · NHC Iselle Adv 9 · NHC Iselle public advisory, Aug 24 2026 · NHC Karina Adv 4 · NHC Karina Adv 5 · NHC Marie Adv 29 · NHC Marie Adv 30 · NHC Norbert Adv 15 · NHC Norbert Adv 16 · NHC Norbert Adv 17 · NHC Norbert Adv 23 · NHC Norbert Adv 24 · NHC Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory #6, 800 PM PDT Sep 14 2026 · NHC/CPHC Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory #22, 500 PM HST Sep 14 2026 · NOAA WPC excessive-rainfall discussion, Sep 17 2026