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NIGERIA — A 15-STATE RIVERINE-FLOOD WINDOW, AND THE DAM THE STORY KEEPS BLAMING IS FILLING

On the board · September 20, 2026 →
ACTIVE · September 20, 2026 · NO. 0920
THE WATER

The hazard and its explanation have come apart. A National Flood Advisory warns of high riverine floods Sep 19 to 25 across about 15 states, Lagos, Delta and Imo among them, urging movement to higher ground. The reservoir at the centre of the circulating release claim is impounding at 209.82 m against a 216 m maximum, not releasing — the flooding is rain- and flash-driven, and the release narrative stays debunked. (Handled with care.)

THE RECORD

13 turning points on record since Aug 23 — the 8 most recent shown.

Sep 19building → active
Sep 18▽ eased
Sep 17▽ slipped down the board
Sep 16↑ intensified sharply
Sep 15active → building
Sep 13↑ moved up the board
Sep 12building → active
Sep 11↑ became confirmed
WHO IT TOUCHES
Public safetyfive live water emergencies with five different distances between the warning and the water
Healtha heat index that is still dangerous on a smaller map, and three flood recoveries where the health risk outlives the water
Agriculturea monsoon retreat you can plan a harvest against, a flood window over farmland, and one last freeze before spring
CONNECTED

The water moved and the coverage did not — the day's two largest flood stories are both off-camera.