Nº 1008 · THURSDAY 2026-10-08 · 09:00Z
The Atmosphere Today
SINCE YESTERDAYTHE GULF OF MEXICO — HURRICANE ISAIAS · INTENSIFIED→SOUTH-WEST MEXICO — SIMON FORMS · INTENSIFIED→THAILAND — THE TOLL RISES TO 60 AS THE EAST SETS A RECORD · WEAKENED→CENTRAL VIETNAM — HEAVY RAIN PEAKS OVER HUE AND DA NANG · WEAKENED→SENEGAL — NEW RAIN FALLS ON FLOODED GROUND THROUGH OCT 12 · STEADY→WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA — RACHEL WEAKENS · INTENSIFIED→CATALONIA — ORANGE FOR WIND AND 4 M WAVES · WEAKENED→TUSCANY — AN ORANGE ALERT FOR STORMS CLOSES SOME SCHOOLS · NEW→THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC — KOGUMA HOLDS SHORT OF A TYPHOON · WEAKENED→THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST — FLASH FLOODS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY · INTENSIFIED→SRI LANKA — RED LANDSLIDE WARNINGS IN THE HILL COUNTRY · INTENSIFIED→ARGENTINA — ORANGE FOR STRONG STORMS OVER CORRIENTES · INTENSIFIED→PERU — RED HEAT FOR LIMA AND 19 REGIONS · WEAKENED→HAINAN — UP TO 270 MM OF RAIN FORECAST · INTENSIFIED→THE U.S. GULF COAST — A MODERATE FLOOD RISK FOR SATURDAY · INTENSIFIED→VICTORIA — RIVERS RECEDE · WEAKENED→KENYA — A FLASH-FLOOD WARNING IN THE NORTH-EAST TO OCT 12 · WEAKENED→UPPER PAKISTAN — DRY TODAY · WEAKENED→SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — STORMS MOVE INLAND TO THE MOUNTAINS · WEAKENED→SOUTHERN BRAZIL — YELLOW FOR STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH · WEAKENED→WEST BENGAL — ORANGE ALERTS AS THE MONSOON'S RETREAT HOLDS · INTENSIFIED→THE RHINE AT KAUB — DOWN TO 0 CM · INTENSIFIED→THE KWAZULU-NATAL COAST — YELLOW FOR WIND AS WARNINGS EASE · INTENSIFIED→
THE LEAD
Hurricane Isaias, the Atlantic's first of 2026, ties a 1905 record.
A hurricane warning is up from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle, with landfall forecast late Friday or early Saturday.
WHAT IS UNUSUALThe latest first Atlantic hurricane on record, tiedHurricane strength came on Oct 8, the same date as in 1905.
AT THIS HOURAn 80 mph hurricane in the central GulfMoving east-north-east at 9 mph; pressure 979 mb.
WHEN IT ARRIVESLandfall late Friday or early SaturdayForecast to strengthen through early Friday, then turn north.
WHO IS EXPOSEDThe central Gulf Coast, Mississippi to the Florida PanhandleUnder hurricane and storm surge warnings, from the Mississippi's mouth to the Steinhatchee River.
Isaias became a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico early on Oct 8, the first of the Atlantic season, and now holds at 80 mph. That is the date of the latest first hurricane on record, in 1905, so the record is tied, not broken. A hurricane warning runs from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Florida Panhandle, and forecasters expect it to strengthen before coming ashore late Friday or early Saturday.
Read the full storySINCE YESTERDAY — WHAT MOVED
23 systems moved since yesterday's edition · 10 held steady.
↑ ESCALATED11
THE GULF OF MEXICO — HURRICANE ISAIASfirmer→SOUTH-WEST MEXICO — SIMON FORMSintensified→WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA — RACHEL WEAKENSfirmer→THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST — FLASH FLOODS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAYfirmer→SRI LANKA — RED LANDSLIDE WARNINGS IN THE HILL COUNTRYfirmer→ARGENTINA — ORANGE FOR STRONG STORMS OVER CORRIENTESintensified→HAINAN — UP TO 270 MM OF RAIN FORECASTfirmer→THE U.S. GULF COAST — A MODERATE FLOOD RISK FOR SATURDAYintensified→WEST BENGAL — ORANGE ALERTS AS THE MONSOON'S RETREAT HOLDSintensified→THE RHINE AT KAUB — DOWN TO 0 CMfirmer→THE KWAZULU-NATAL COAST — YELLOW FOR WIND AS WARNINGS EASEfirmer→▽ EASED11
THAILAND — THE TOLL RISES TO 60 AS THE EAST SETS A RECORDslipped→CENTRAL VIETNAM — HEAVY RAIN PEAKS OVER HUE AND DA NANGweakened→CATALONIA — ORANGE FOR WIND AND 4 M WAVESweakened→THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC — KOGUMA HOLDS SHORT OF A TYPHOONweakened→PERU — RED HEAT FOR LIMA AND 19 REGIONSslipped→VICTORIA — RIVERS RECEDEweakened→KENYA — A FLASH-FLOOD WARNING IN THE NORTH-EAST TO OCT 12slipped→UPPER PAKISTAN — DRY TODAYweakened→SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — STORMS MOVE INLAND TO THE MOUNTAINSslipped→SOUTHERN BRAZIL — YELLOW FOR STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHslipped→THE NORTH PACIFIC — NOLO TURNS NORTH-EAST AND LOSES ITS TROPICAL COREweakened→HELD STEADYSENEGAL — NEW RAIN FALLS ON FLOODED GROUND THROUGH OCT 12 · THE CARIBBEAN SEA — NO STORM IN SIGHT · THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA — NO CYCLONE OR LOW · THE SOUTHERN OCEANS — OFF-SEASON · THE PHILIPPINES — NO TROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE MONSOON TURNS · BRITAIN — A DRY DAY BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES OVERNIGHT · BANGLADESH — NO FLOOD OR MARINE WARNING · NEW ZEALAND — SETTLED · NIGERIA — NOT CHECKED TODAY: THE FLOOD BULLETIN COULD NOT BE READ · CENTRAL AMERICA — NOT CHECKED TODAY: THE REGIONAL BOARDS WERE NOT REFRESHED
WHERE IT IS — THE BOARD
heatsevererain / floodtropicalfire weathersmoke / airdroughtwinterquiet✦new↑escalated▽eased=heldsince yesterday
same hazard class — Two hurricanes aimed at two coasts — Isaias nears the northern Gulf Coast as Simon strengthens toward south-west Mexico.
| SYSTEM | HAZARD | PEAK | TREND | TOUCHES | CONF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | THE GULF OF MEXICO — HURRICANE ISAIAS, THE SEASON'S FIRST, NEARS THE COAST INTENSIFYING | tropical | 80 mph | ▲ intensifying | 4 | C |
| Hurricane Isaias holds at 80 mph in the Gulf, the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026, under a hurricane warning from Ocean Springs to the Florida Panhandle | ||||||
| 2 | SOUTH-WEST MEXICO — SIMON FORMS, FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSIFYING | tropical | 50 mph | ▲ intensifying | 3 | C |
| Tropical Storm Simon formed at 50 mph about 190 miles south-south-west of Lázaro Cárdenas and is forecast to strengthen rapidly into a major hurricane by late Friday or early Saturday | ||||||
| 3 | THAILAND — THE TOLL RISES TO 60 AS THE EAST SETS A RECORD ACTIVE | water | 4.93 m | ► ongoing | 3 | R |
| 60 people have died since Sep 16, and about 1.15 million households in 28 provinces are still flooded | ||||||
| 4 | CENTRAL VIETNAM — HEAVY RAIN PEAKS OVER HUE AND DA NANG PEAK | water | 600 mm | ● at peak | 2 | R |
| Rain over Hue and Da Nang is at or near its peak, 150 to 350 mm and locally 500 to 600 mm, on ground already soaked | ||||||
| 5 | SENEGAL — NEW RAIN FALLS ON FLOODED GROUND THROUGH OCT 12 BUILDING | water | 142 mm | ▲ building | 2 | R |
| A new nationwide spell of rain and storms runs from Oct 8 to 12, Dakar included, on ground still flooded from the weekend | ||||||
| 6 | WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA — RACHEL WEAKENS, AND TURNS TOWARD THE COAST EASING | tropical | 70 mph | ▼ easing | 1 | C |
| Tropical Storm Rachel has weakened to 70 mph about 895 miles west of Baja California and is forecast to turn sharply north-east | ||||||
| 7 | CATALONIA — ORANGE FOR WIND AND 4 M WAVES EASING | severe | 90 km/h | ▼ easing | — | R |
| Spain's second Mediterranean episode arrived weaker and further north than forecast: the only orange is in Catalonia, for gusts to 90 km/h and waves to 4 m | ||||||
| 8 | TUSCANY — AN ORANGE ALERT FOR STORMS CLOSES SOME SCHOOLS BUILDING | severe | — | ▲ building | — | R |
| An orange alert for storms covers Tuscany, where some schools and parks are closed, and 11 more regions are on yellow. | ||||||
| 9 | THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC — KOGUMA HOLDS SHORT OF A TYPHOON ACTIVE | tropical | — | ► ongoing | 1 | R |
| Koguma stays a tropical storm over open water south-south-west of Wake Island, its strengthening now expected around Oct 10 to 11 | ||||||
| 10 | THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST — FLASH FLOODS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY ACTIVE | water | — | ► ongoing | — | R |
| Heavy rain, hail and flash floods are forecast over Jazan, Asir, Al-Baha, the Makkah highlands and Madinah through Saturday. | ||||||
| 11 | SRI LANKA — RED LANDSLIDE WARNINGS IN THE HILL COUNTRY ACTIVE | water | 100+ mm | ► ongoing | — | R |
| Red landslide warnings cover Ududumbara, Nildandahinna and Walapane, with amber across five more districts, as more than 100 mm of rain falls. | ||||||
| 12 | ARGENTINA — ORANGE FOR STRONG STORMS OVER CORRIENTES BUILDING | severe | 100 mm | ▲ building | 1 | R |
| Strong storms with gusts above 90 km/h, hail and 40 to 100 mm of rain are forecast over Corrientes, Misiones, northern Santa Fe and Chaco. | ||||||
| 13 | PERU — RED HEAT FOR LIMA AND 19 REGIONS PEAK | heat | — | ● at peak | — | R |
| A red heat alert covers Lima and 19 regions, with extreme UV, through Friday, and fire risk is extreme in 8 regions. | ||||||
| 14 | HAINAN — UP TO 270 MM OF RAIN FORECAST ACTIVE | water | 270 mm | ► ongoing | — | C |
| Heavy to torrential rain falls on Hainan through Oct 9, locally 250 to 270 mm in the centre and east of the island. | ||||||
| 15 | THE U.S. GULF COAST — A MODERATE FLOOD RISK FOR SATURDAY BUILDING | water | — | ▲ building | — | C |
| A moderate risk of flooding rain is drawn for Saturday over far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle, the core of Isaias's rain | ||||||
| 16 | VICTORIA — RIVERS RECEDE, BUT HEAVY RAIN RETURNS TO GIPPSLAND EASING | water | 150 mm | ▼ easing | — | C |
| The Thomson and Latrobe recede, but a severe weather warning brings heavy rain to Gippsland and the Otways through the weekend, up to 150 mm in places. | ||||||
| 17 | KENYA — A FLASH-FLOOD WARNING IN THE NORTH-EAST TO OCT 12 BUILDING | water | — | ▲ building | — | R |
| Flash floods are possible in Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Tana River and Kilifi through Oct 12 as the short rains begin | ||||||
| 18 | UPPER PAKISTAN — DRY TODAY, A SECOND WAVE FROM OCT 9 BUILDING | water | — | ▲ building | — | R |
| Pakistan is dry and hot today; a second westerly wave brings rain from Oct 9 to the upper north, Islamabad and Kashmir. | ||||||
| 19 | SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — STORMS MOVE INLAND TO THE MOUNTAINS EASING | severe | — | ▼ easing | — | R |
| Electrical storms over seven regions move inland toward the mountains through Friday, with hail and gusts. | ||||||
| 20 | SOUTHERN BRAZIL — YELLOW FOR STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH EASING | severe | — | ▼ easing | — | R |
| Yellow storm alerts cover Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, and the coasts of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. | ||||||
| 21 | WEST BENGAL — ORANGE ALERTS AS THE MONSOON'S RETREAT HOLDS EASING | water | — | ▼ easing | — | C |
| Orange alerts cover Howrah, Hooghly and the two 24 Parganas, and the monsoon's withdrawal line holds where it was. | ||||||
| 22 | THE RHINE AT KAUB — DOWN TO 0 CM ACTIVE | drought | 0 cm | ► ongoing | 1 | C |
| The Kaub gauge slipped to 0 cm from 3 cm, still above the record low of −6 cm on Oct 1. | ||||||
| 23 | THE KWAZULU-NATAL COAST — YELLOW FOR WIND AS WARNINGS EASE EASING | severe | — | ▼ easing | — | R |
| Damaging winds are possible on the KwaZulu-Natal coast, and damaging waves on the Western and Northern Cape coasts today. | ||||||
| · | THE NORTH PACIFIC — NOLO TURNS NORTH-EAST AND LOSES ITS TROPICAL CORE EASING | tropical | 65 mph | ▼ easing | — | R |
| Nolo, a subtropical storm of about 65 mph, recurves north-east over open water toward becoming extratropical | ||||||
QUIET — THE CARIBBEAN SEA · THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA · THE SOUTHERN OCEANS · THE PHILIPPINES · BRITAIN · BANGLADESH · NEW ZEALAND · NOT CHECKED TODAY — NIGERIA · CENTRAL AMERICA
■ OPEN THE LIVE MAP →EVENT · VENUEWHENSHELTERTHE WEATHER THERE
UPCOMING
Bathurst 1000Mount Panorama Circuit · BathurstOct 8–11open-airDry and sunny; gusts to 50 km/h Saturday · 3–24°C
Indonesian Motorcycle Grand PrixPertamina Mandalika International CircuitOct 9–11open-airDry and sunny; breezy, gusts to 45 km/h Friday; hot, feeling like 35°C Saturday · 24–32°C
Singapore Grand PrixMarina Bay Street Circuit · SingaporeOct 9–11open-airA chance of showers Sunday afternoon; hot, feeling like 38°C Friday · 25–33°C
IRONMAN World Championship KonaKailua Pier and Kamakahonu (swim start and finish) · Kailua-Kona, HawaiiSat Oct 10open-airDry, sun and cloud, light winds · 24–26°C
Lisbon MarathonPraça do Comércio (finish), Lisbon · Cascais to LisbonSat Oct 10open-airDry, sun and cloud · 16–24°C
Wuhan OpenOptics Valley International Tennis Center, Centre Court · WuhanOct 12–18retractableMon–TueDry and sunny · 18–27°C
ONGOING
BarcolanaBarcolana start line, Gulf of TriesteOct 2–11open-airThu–SunA chance of showers Thursday afternoon and evening; gusts to 70 km/h Friday · 14–22°C
Albuquerque International Balloon FiestaBalloon Fiesta Park · Albuquerque, New MexicoOct 3–11open-airThu–SunDry and sunny; gusts to 55 km/h Sunday · 10–27°C
State Fair of TexasFair Park · DallasSep 25 – Oct 18open-airThu–MonDry and sunny; breezy, gusts to 35 km/h Monday · 17–32°C
Shanghai MastersQizhong Forest Sports City Arena, Centre Court · ShanghaiOct 7–18retractableThu–TueDry, sun and cloud · 16–27°C