Nº 0926 · SATURDAY 2026-09-26 · 09:30Z
The Atmosphere Today
SINCE YESTERDAYSOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR — CATEGORY 5 POLO→SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND — HURRICANE NOLO STALLS→SOUTH OF OKINAWA — SURIGAE FORECAST TO BECOME A TYPHOON SUNDAY→SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — RED ALERTS WIDEN AS A SECOND ATMOSPHERIC RIVER NEARS→SRI LANKA — RED LANDSLIDE WARNINGS FOR GALLE→THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST — RED ALERTS FOR FLASH FLOODS AND HAIL→EASTERN JAPAN — LAST WEEK'S TYPHOON TOLL STANDS AT 12 DEAD→THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR — A STALLING NOR'EASTER→ODISHA — THE BAY LOW FADES INLAND→NORTHERN ITALY — ORANGE ALERTS→CENTRAL NEW ZEALAND — ORANGE WARNINGS FOR SUNDAY RAIN→OFF CABO VERDE — GONZALO MOVES AWAY; THE ATLANTIC STILL HAS NO HURRICANE→THAILAND — HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH-FLOOD RISK THROUGH SEP 27→THE RHINE AT KAUB — THE GAUGE FALLS BELOW ZERO→NIGERIA — HIGH FLOOD RISK HOLDS FOR CROSS RIVER COMMUNITIES→SOUTH AFRICA — WESTERN STORMS AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER→WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-WEST TEXAS — A MARGINAL RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTS→
THE LEAD
Category 5 Hurricane Polo is forecast to hit Baja California Sur Monday.
A hurricane watch runs from Punta Eugenia to Santa Fe, and forecasters urge preparations finished by Sunday.
AT THIS HOURCategory 5 near 17.6 N 111.0 W, 165 mph, 917 mb, moving west-north-west at 9 mphAbout 375 miles south of Cabo San Lucas; tropical-storm-force winds reach 125 miles from the centre.
WHEN IT ARRIVESTropical-storm conditions possible Sunday night; hurricane conditions possible Monday afternoonIt turns north-west today, north on Sunday and north-east on Monday, weakening slowly but still powerful at landfall.
WHAT IS ALREADY IN FORCEHurricane watch from Punta Eugenia to Santa Fe4 to 8 inches of rain, up to 10, over Baja California Sur; life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast now.
Polo is an extremely dangerous Category 5 this morning, and forecasters now expect it to make landfall in Baja California Sur on Monday as a powerful hurricane. At 2 AM its eye sat about 375 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, with 165 mph winds and a pressure of 917 mb, moving west-north-west at 9 mph. A hurricane watch covers the coast from Punta Eugenia to Santa Fe.
READ THE FULL STORY — SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR — CATEGORY 5 POLO, LANDFALL FORECAST MONDAY →WHERE IT IS — THE BOARD
heatsevererain / floodtropicalfire weathersmoke / airdroughtwinterquiet
two clocks — Two Pacific hurricanes, two threats — Polo brings a Category 5 toward a Monday landfall.
| SYSTEM | HAZARD | PEAK | TREND | TOUCHES | CONF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR — CATEGORY 5 POLO, LANDFALL FORECAST MONDAY PEAK | tropical | 165 mph | ● at peak | 7 | C |
| Hurricane Polo holds Category 5 at 165 mph and 917 mb, about 375 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, and forecasters expect a landfall in Baja California Sur on Monday | ||||||
| 2 | SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND — HURRICANE NOLO STALLS, TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS ASHORE BUILDING | tropical | 105 mph | ▲ building | 6 | C |
| Hurricane Nolo sits nearly still about 145 miles south of South Point at 105 mph, and tropical-storm conditions are occurring on the Big Island's steep terrain | ||||||
| 3 | SOUTH OF OKINAWA — SURIGAE (QUEENIE) FORECAST TO BECOME A TYPHOON SUNDAY INTENSIFYING | tropical | 50 kt | ▲ intensifying | 2 | C |
| Severe Tropical Storm Surigae, named Queenie in the Philippine area, sits south of Okinawa with 50-knot ten-minute winds and 996 hPa, moving north-north-west at 15 km/h | ||||||
| 4 | SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — RED ALERTS WIDEN AS A SECOND ATMOSPHERIC RIVER NEARS BUILDING | water | 40+ mm | ▲ building | 3 | R |
| Red alerts now cover Valdivia and Futrono, Arauco and Cautín, after the first storm left 161 homes affected in Los Ríos and about 30 families cut off in Lanco | ||||||
| 5 | SRI LANKA — RED LANDSLIDE WARNINGS FOR GALLE, KANDY AND NUWARA ELIYA ACTIVE | water | 300+ mm | ► ongoing | 3 | R |
| The highest, Level-3 red landslide warnings cover divisions of Galle, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya to 4 pm today, and residents are told to evacuate if the rain continues | ||||||
| 6 | THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST — RED ALERTS FOR FLASH FLOODS AND HAIL INTENSIFYING | water | — | ▲ intensifying | 1 | R |
| Red alerts for heavy rain, flash floods and hail cover Jazan, Asir, Al-Baha and the Makkah highlands, including Taif | ||||||
| 7 | EASTERN JAPAN — LAST WEEK'S TYPHOON TOLL STANDS AT 12 DEAD, 3 MISSING RECOVERY | tropical | — | ▼ recovery | 2 | R |
| The count from last week's typhoon stands at 12 dead and 3 missing, 7 in Chiba, 4 in Kanagawa and 1 in Miyazaki | ||||||
| 8 | THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR — A STALLING NOR'EASTER, 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN BUILDING | water | 1-3 in | ▲ building | 3 | C |
| A stalling nor'easter brings 1 to 3 inches of rain from Philadelphia to Boston | ||||||
| 9 | ODISHA — THE BAY LOW FADES INLAND, ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN TODAY EASING | water | — | ▼ easing | — | R |
| The system is now a well-marked low over the border of Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, with isolated heavy rain over Odisha today before a general easing. | ||||||
| 10 | NORTHERN ITALY — ORANGE ALERTS, THEN STORMS SHIFT SOUTH TO SICILY ACTIVE | severe | — | ► ongoing | — | R |
| Orange alerts cover Lombardia, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, with alerts across six regions, as a cyclone over the Ionian drives storms that shift to Sicily and Calabria into Sunday. | ||||||
| 11 | CENTRAL NEW ZEALAND — ORANGE WARNINGS FOR SUNDAY RAIN, SNOW AND GALES EMERGING | winter | 60-90 mm | ▲ emerging | — | R |
| Orange warnings for Sunday bring heavy rain to the Tararua Range, heavy snow to Canterbury and inland Otago, and severe gales to the lower North Island | ||||||
| 12 | OFF CABO VERDE — GONZALO MOVES AWAY; THE ATLANTIC STILL HAS NO HURRICANE EASING | tropical | 45 mph | ▼ easing | — | C |
| Tropical Storm Gonzalo moves north, away from Cabo Verde, at 45 mph, and could dissipate within a day | ||||||
| 13 | THAILAND — HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH-FLOOD RISK THROUGH SEP 27 ACTIVE | water | 2-3 m | ► ongoing | — | R |
| Heavy to very heavy rain brings flash-flood and runoff risk to the North, Central region including Bangkok, East and South through Sep 27, with 2-to-3-metre waves offshore. | ||||||
| 14 | THE RHINE AT KAUB — THE GAUGE FALLS BELOW ZERO ACTIVE | drought | -1 cm | ► ongoing | 2 | C |
| The Kaub gauge read minus 1 cm late this morning, down from 3 cm a day earlier, so barges through the Rhine gorge load lighter still. | ||||||
| 15 | NIGERIA — HIGH FLOOD RISK HOLDS FOR CROSS RIVER COMMUNITIES ACTIVE | water | — | ► ongoing | — | R |
| After the 15-state riverine advisory reached its last day, high-flood-risk messaging continues, with Cross River communities flagged and river stations watched closely. | ||||||
| 16 | SOUTH AFRICA — WESTERN STORMS AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACTIVE | severe | — | ► ongoing | — | R |
| Yellow level-2 severe storms cover parts of the Northern and Western Cape, and extremely high fire danger covers the north-east Northern Cape | ||||||
| 17 | WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-WEST TEXAS — A MARGINAL RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTS ACTIVE | severe | — | ► ongoing | — | C |
| A marginal severe-storm risk covers western Oklahoma and north-west Texas, where isolated hail and strong outflow winds are possible; no higher risk area covers the country. | ||||||
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