Nº 0924 · THURSDAY 2026-09-24 · 09:30Z
The Atmosphere Today
SINCE YESTERDAYSOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND — NOLO STRENGTHENS UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH→SOUTH-WEST MEXICO — CATEGORY-5 POLO HOLDS OFFSHORE AS ITS RAIN COMES ASHORE→SOUTH ODISHA — THE DEEP DEPRESSION IS ASHORE→THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC — SURIGAE→EASTERN JAPAN — THE STORM HAS GONE→NEW MEXICO — A SLIGHT FLASH-FLOOD RISK ON GROUND ALREADY SATURATED→SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ENDS UNDER RED ALERTS IN VALDIVIA→SAUDI ARABIA'S SOUTH-WEST — RED ALERTS ACROSS FOUR REGIONS→NIGERIA — A 15-STATE RIVERINE FLOOD ADVISORY→SRI LANKA — LANDSLIDE WARNINGS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY→CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIETNAM — A FLOOD WAVE FROM HUE TO LAM DONG→CABO VERDE — A LOW AT 60 PERCENT→NORTHERN GERMANY — ORANGE WIND WARNINGS ON THE NORTH SEA COAST→THE RHINE AT KAUB — 7 CM→SOUTH AFRICA — SEVERE STORMS IN THE EAST→THE AMERICAN WEST — FIRE PREPAREDNESS AT LEVEL 2→CENTRAL BRAZIL — YELLOW THUNDERSTORM ALERTS FROM GOIAS TO RONDONIA→NEPAL — A LEDGER AT 1→PAKISTAN — A NATIONAL COUNT HELD AT ITS SEP 3 FIGURE→
THE LEAD
Hawaii's Big Island is under a hurricane watch as Nolo strengthens.
Forecasters expect a major hurricane on Saturday and up to 35 inches of rain on the island.
AT THIS HOURTropical storm near 14.9 N 156.0 W, 50 mph, 999 mb, moving north at 2 mphAbout 285 miles south of South Point and 460 miles south-south-east of Honolulu; tropical-storm-force winds reach 80 miles from the centre.
WHEN IT ARRIVESHurricane by Thursday night; hurricane conditions possible from Friday night; closest pass SaturdayA sharp westward turn Friday night into Saturday takes it south of the Big Island, then south of the smaller islands through the weekend. Track confidence is lower than normal.
WHAT IS ALREADY IN FORCEHurricane watch for Hawaii County; a flood watch for Hawaii Island and Maui15 to 20 inches, up to 35, on the Big Island; 5 to 10, up to 20, on Maui; a 1-to-3-foot surge; life-threatening surf by Friday.
The Big Island has two days, and the watch is already up. At 11 PM last night Tropical Storm Nolo sat near 14.9 N 156.0 W, about 285 miles south of South Point, with 50 mph winds and a pressure of 999 mb, turning north at 2 mph. Forecasters expect it to become a hurricane by Thursday night, then swing sharply west and pass south of the Big Island on Saturday as a major hurricane. A hurricane watch covers Hawaii County, and hurricane conditions are possible there from Friday night.
READ THE FULL STORY — SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND — NOLO STRENGTHENS UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH →WHERE IT IS — THE BOARD
heatsevererain / floodtropicalfire weathersmoke / airdroughtwinterquiet
intensity is not exposure — The weaker storm is the one aimed at people.
| SYSTEM | HAZARD | PEAK | TREND | TOUCHES | CONF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND — NOLO STRENGTHENS UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH BUILDING | tropical | 50 mph | ▲ building | 7 | C |
| Tropical Storm Nolo sits near 14.9 N 156.0 W, about 285 miles south of South Point, at 50 mph and 999 mb, turning north at 2 mph | ||||||
| 2 | SOUTH-WEST MEXICO — CATEGORY-5 POLO HOLDS OFFSHORE AS ITS RAIN COMES ASHORE PEAK | tropical | 160 mph | ● at peak | 4 | C |
| Polo holds 160 mph and 923 mb near 16.5 N 103.5 W, about 150 miles west-south-west of Zihuatanejo, moving north-west at 9 mph with its core offshore | ||||||
| 3 | SOUTH ODISHA — THE DEEP DEPRESSION IS ASHORE, AND RED RAIN MOVES INLAND EASING | tropical | 230 mm | ▼ easing | 6 | R |
| The deep depression crossed the coast near Kalingapatnam overnight with 55-65 km/h gusting 75, and at dawn sat about 50 km west of it, moving north-north-west and weakening | ||||||
| 4 | THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC — SURIGAE (QUEENIE), BOUND FOR TYPHOON STRENGTH AND OKINAWA BUILDING | tropical | 75 km/h | ▲ building | 2 | R |
| Tropical Storm Surigae entered the Philippine area and took the local name Queenie | ||||||
| 5 | EASTERN JAPAN — THE STORM HAS GONE, AND THE TOLL ROSE TO TEN RECOVERY | tropical | 832 mm | ▼ recovery | 3 | R |
| The count from last week's storm rose to 10 dead and 4 missing, mostly in landslides | ||||||
| 6 | NEW MEXICO — A SLIGHT FLASH-FLOOD RISK ON GROUND ALREADY SATURATED EASING | water | 2+ in | ▼ easing | 2 | C |
| A slight excessive-rain risk covers central and eastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, where 2 inches or more can fall on saturated ground, and the central and… | ||||||
| 7 | SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ENDS UNDER RED ALERTS IN VALDIVIA EASING | water | 200 mm | ▼ easing | 3 | R |
| A category-4 atmospheric river brought 100 to 200 mm to the precordillera and ends tonight | ||||||
| 8 | SAUDI ARABIA'S SOUTH-WEST — RED ALERTS ACROSS FOUR REGIONS ACTIVE | water | — | ► ongoing | — | R |
| Red alerts hold across Makkah, Al-Baha, Asir and Jazan for heavy rain, flash floods, hail and strong winds, with thunderstorms forecast to persist through Thursday. | ||||||
| 9 | NIGERIA — A 15-STATE RIVERINE FLOOD ADVISORY, AND FLOODING IN ENUGU ACTIVE | water | — | ► ongoing | 2 | R |
| High riverine flood risk runs to Sep 25 across 15 states, with more than 8,000 communities and 4,500 schools in the risk area | ||||||
| 10 | SRI LANKA — LANDSLIDE WARNINGS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY ACTIVE | water | — | ► ongoing | 1 | R |
| Landslide early warnings cover Galle, Kalutara, Kandy, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura, reported to be widening toward about 10 districts, on saturated hill-country soils with rivers running high | ||||||
| 11 | CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIETNAM — A FLOOD WAVE FROM HUE TO LAM DONG EASING | water | — | ▼ easing | — | R |
| A flood wave moves through central rivers from Hue to Lam Dong; the Dong Nai at Ta Lai is above alarm level 2, and the rain eases after Sep 25. | ||||||
| 12 | CABO VERDE — A LOW AT 60 PERCENT, AND STILL NO ATLANTIC HURRICANE EMERGING | tropical | — | ▲ emerging | — | C |
| A low south-south-east of the Cabo Verde Islands sits at 60 percent over two days and could become a short-lived depression, with gusty winds, heavy rain and flash flooding possible… | ||||||
| 13 | NORTHERN GERMANY — ORANGE WIND WARNINGS ON THE NORTH SEA COAST ACTIVE | severe | 80 km/h | ► ongoing | — | C |
| Orange wind warnings cover the North Sea coast and Fehmarn, gusts about 80 km/h through Thursday evening, with yellow across the north | ||||||
| 14 | THE RHINE AT KAUB — 7 CM, AND STILL FALLING ACTIVE | drought | 7 cm | ► ongoing | 2 | C |
| The Kaub gauge reads 7 cm this morning, down from about 11, flagged low — every Rhine barge through the gorge loads lighter. | ||||||
| 15 | SOUTH AFRICA — SEVERE STORMS IN THE EAST, EXTREME FIRE DANGER IN LIMPOPO EASING | severe | — | ▼ easing | — | R |
| The Karoo's orange level 5 has expired | ||||||
| 16 | THE AMERICAN WEST — FIRE PREPAREDNESS AT LEVEL 2, ONE RED-FLAG WARNING ACTIVE | fire | PL 2 | ► ongoing | — | C |
| Fire preparedness stands at PL 2, the national level, with 31 uncontained large fires, led by Washington, Oregon and California; one red-flag warning is in force for Modoc County, California. | ||||||
| 17 | CENTRAL BRAZIL — YELLOW THUNDERSTORM ALERTS FROM GOIAS TO RONDONIA ACTIVE | severe | 60 km/h | ► ongoing | — | R |
| Yellow thunderstorm alerts cover Goias, the Federal District, Minas Gerais and Rondonia, with hail and gusts to 60 km/h. | ||||||
| 18 | NEPAL — A LEDGER AT 1,451 DEAD, THE MISSING REVISED TO ABOUT 5,745 RECOVERY | water | — | ▼ recovery | — | R |
| The flood ledger stands at a reported 1,451 dead, with the missing revised down to about 5,745 as remains are identified | ||||||
| 19 | PAKISTAN — A NATIONAL COUNT HELD AT ITS SEP 3 FIGURE RECOVERY | water | — | ▼ recovery | — | R |
| The national monsoon count is held at a reported 180 dead since late June — no newer national figure was published — and Punjab's rivers run below normal | ||||||
QUIET — THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO · THE AMERICAN HEAT BOARD · THE UNITED STATES · AUSTRALIA · BRITAIN · THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN, AUSTRALIAN-REGION AND SOUTH PACIFIC BASINS · NEW ZEALAND · NOT CHECKED TODAY — NORTH-EAST BANGLADESH · CHINA AND KOREA · SPAIN AND FRANCE · CENTRAL AMERICA · SOUTHERN DALMATIA
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