Tropical Storm Nolo

Tropical Storm Nolo is packing 60-kt (70-mph) winds, moving N at 2 kt (2 mph). Expected to stay over open water.

At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 156.1 West. Nolo is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A faster motion to the north or north-northeast is expected later today through Friday, followed by a sharp westward turn on Saturday in the vicinity of the Big Island. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Nolo is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane by this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).— National Hurricane Center · public advisory 17

This is the East Pacific · 13°N–26°N, 169°W–153°W. Nolo’s forecast track is the dotted spine — the labelled dots mark its position each day. Every cell is shaded by how many hours it spends inside Nolo’s gale-force (≥34 kt · 39 mph) wind across the whole forecast, the damaging core counted double.

Read it two ways at once. Colour is the total — the hours of gale-force wind a place piles up. A slow storm writes its danger in duration, not in any single gust, so the longer the wind sits over a place, the deeper its colour. Opacity is confidence — solid where the official probability of that wind is high, faint where it is only a chance. So a deep, solid cell is a place the wind will work for a long time and likely will; a pale, faint one is a brief, uncertain brush at the edge of the cone.

Forecasters have issued a hurricane watch for Hawaii as the system strengthens south of the Big Island, with agreement that it will reach major hurricane intensity. Communicators have highlighted the potential for rapid strengthening under favorable conditions and have drawn attention to the heavy rain and flooding that could affect the island as the storm passes nearby.

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