severe
THE SOUTH-EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS — SEVERE EASED TO A MARGINAL DAY FOR DAMAGING WIND
On the board · September 21, 2026 →
EASING · September 21, 2026 · NO. 0921
THE RISK WINDOW
The Day-1 outlook is marginal, from central Mississippi into western North Carolina and western Virginia, for isolated damaging wind, and Day 2 stays marginal over the South-east. No hail or wind maximum is stated in this issuance and none is printed here. The same ground carries part of the flash-flood focus, which is where the day's real decision sits.
THE RECORD
55 turning points on record since Jun 9 — the 8 most recent shown.
Sep 21 active → easing
Sep 19 ↑ firmed
Sep 18 ↑ moved up the board
Sep 17 ▽ slipped down the board
Sep 16 easing → active
Sep 15 active → easing
Sep 13 ▽ slipped down the board
Sep 12 ▽ eased
CONNECTED
The American summer signature left the board in two columns at once.
WHAT THEY'RE SAYING
searched 34 vetted voices and the open field — nothing said about this system cleared the screen.
SOURCES — NOAA SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook valid 06:00 UTC Aug 28 2026 · NOAA SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook 0526Z Sep 15 2026 and Day-2 0600Z · NOAA SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook, 05:24 UTC Sep 12 2026 · NOAA SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook, Sep 11 2026 · NOAA SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook, Sep 16 2026 · NOAA SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook, Sep 18 2026 · NOAA SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks, Sep 17 2026 · NOAA SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks, Sep 8 2026 · NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day-1 Convective Outlook, 1258 AM CDT Sep 13 2026 · NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day-1 Convective Outlook, Sep 21 2026: MARGINAL from central Mississippi into western North Carolina and western Virginia — the South-east into the southern and central Appalachians — for isolated damaging wind; Day-2 MARGINAL over the South-east. No hail or wind maximum is stated in this issuance and none is printed here. · NOAA Storm Prediction Center, Day-1 Convective Outlook, 1214 AM CDT Sep 19 2026: SLIGHT risk over the central Plains with large hail the primary mode, severe wind and an isolated tornado possible — an upgrade from the Marginal-only outlook of the previous issuance; MARGINAL from the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley and the Southeast. No hail or wind maximum is stated in this issuance and none is printed here. · NOAA WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, Aug 28 2026 · NWS Mount Holly · NWS OKX · NWS active Extreme Heat Warnings Aug 9 · NYC Emergency Management · NYC.gov press release · SPC · SPC 2000Z · SPC Day 1 · SPC Day 1 0529Z Jul 24 · SPC Day 1 05Z Jul 23 · SPC Day 1 06Z Jul 22 · SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 12:58 AM CDT, valid 131200Z-141200Z · SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook valid 06:00 UTC Aug 27 2026 · SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook valid 091200Z-101200Z · SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook valid 111200Z-121200Z · SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, 0556 UTC Aug 18 2026, valid 181200Z-191200Z · SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0101 CDT Aug 22 2026 · SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0146 CDT Aug 21 2026 · SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0600 UTC Aug 20 2026, valid 201200Z-211200Z · SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0600 UTC Aug 24 2026 · SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued 0609 UTC Aug 23 2026 · SPC Day 1 valid 031200Z-041200Z · SPC Day 1 valid 041200Z-051200Z · SPC Day 1 valid 051200Z-061200Z · SPC Day 1 valid 061200Z-071200Z · SPC Day 1 valid 071200Z-081200Z · SPC Day 1 valid 081200Z-091200Z · SPC Day 1 valid 12Z Jul 27 · SPC storm reports 260701–260705 · Tomorrow.io · WPC · WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook · WPC ERO · WPC ERO day-2 · WPC PMDSPD 0651Z Aug 4 · WPC PMDSPD Aug 3 · api.weather.gov · watchers.news