THE READ — what this desk must decide today
an easy day at the hubs, with the disruption booked for Friday and a crosswind ramp tomorrow
Today is the easy day, and that is itself the planning signal. The American convective risk is Marginal only — northern Utah hail and eastern Ohio Valley wet downbursts — while the event that matters for hub banks is the Slight, 15 percent excessive-rain risk Friday Sep 18 over the Upper Midwest, expanding to the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast over the weekend, with Philadelphia turning wet Sep 20–21. Across the Pacific, TD 24W's ramp to typhoon strength Friday is a trans-Pacific flight-planning and fuel-load question, and a Guam–Saipan sector question if it reaches tropical-storm strength, even with no watches for the main Marianas. On the Adriatic a wind ramp to 10.0 m/s on Sep 17 is a crosswind item at the coastal airports. Europe is clean: no alert at all on Italy's bulletin. (Adriatic figures are internal situational context.)
THE RECORD past — how exposed this desk has run
carried on 39 of the last 62 editions — since Jul 5, the 10 most recent shown.
Sep 16Marginal · the event that moved twice · east of Saipan
Sep 15FORECASTERS STEPPED SUNDAY'S SLIGH… · THE UPPER-MIDWEST HEAVY-RAIN EVENT… · THE FLOOD TOLD TO TAPER TODAY EXPA…
Sep 13A MARGINAL DAY FOR DAMAGING WIND A… · THE EXCESSIVE-RAIN OUTLOOK CASHED … · THE ACUTE TIER HELD AT ZERO A SECO…
Sep 12SLIGHT DOWNGRADED TO MARGINAL · THE EXCESSIVE-RAIN SLIGHT JUMPED H… · THE DEADLY OUTBREAK HAS PASSED SOU…
Sep 11AN UPGRADED SLIGHT · AN EXCESSIVE-RAIN SLIGHT THAT RODE… · AN ORANGE-TIER OUTBREAK ON THE TRO…
Sep 8A CATEGORY-2 LOWELL AT CLOSEST APP… · A SLIGHT THAT SHIFTED SOUTH-EAST A… · THE EXCESSIVE-RAIN SLIGHT MOVED TO…
Aug 28A DOUBLE LANDFALL IN ZHEJIANG · A SECOND ESTOFEX LEVEL 3 · A MARGINAL FOR HAIL
Aug 27LANDFALL SLIPPED TO FRIDAY MORNING… · AN ESTOFEX LEVEL 3 FOR TONIGHT · A SLIGHT THAT MIGRATED EAST
Aug 25PAST ITS PEAK AND FILLING ON A PUB… · 25 EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS · A SLIGHT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
Aug 24STILL 110 KT · 19W IS NOW TS ATSANI AND HARMLESS · A FOUR-ZONE SLIGHT FOR HAIL AND WI…