ATLANTIC — THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL TROUGH ESE OF BERMUDA CLIMBS AGAIN TO NEAR-ZERO / 48H AND 40 PERCENT / 7D, UP FROM 30; A DEPRESSION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AS IT DRIFTS WNW

The steadiest riser on the horizon, and the basin's only flag. The 2:00 AM outlook carries the trough east-south-east of Bermuda at near-zero over 48 hours and 40 percent over seven days, up from 30, with a tropical depression possible late this week as it moves slowly west-north-west. No land threat. Across the rest of the basin the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico carry no active system — checked in the same product, so the quiet on that half is read, not assumed.

2 turning points on record since Sep 13.

The horizon restocked faster than the near-term drained — four fresh tropical signals in a single day.