NIGERIA — THE REGULATED LAGDO RELEASE HOLDS AT SEP 17 AND UNACTIVATED, THE DAM IMPOUNDING AT 209.82 M AGAINST A 216 M MAXIMUM; THE FLOODING HAPPENING NOW IS RAIN-DRIVEN ACROSS BENUE AND TARABA

BUILDING · September 15, 2026 · NO. 0915

THE WATER

Two mechanisms, two timelines, held apart for a fourth morning. The regulated release remains scheduled for Sep 17 and unactivated, with the dam impounding at an Aug-30 level of 209.82 m against a 216 m maximum — 6.18 m of headroom. The flooding happening now is rain-driven, across Benue and Taraba farmlands. The national alert for Sep 10–23 flags 919 critical-risk locations across 20 states, 425 high-risk across 7 and 656 moderate across 13 and the federal capital, with a precautionary Shiroro and Kaduna notice in Niger State. The gap between the discourse version and the official one persists.

THE RECORD

9 turning points on record since Aug 23 — the 8 most recent shown.

Sep 15active → building

Sep 13↑ moved up the board

Sep 12building → active

Sep 11↑ became confirmed

Sep 8active → building · intensified sharply

Aug 28↑ became confirmed

Aug 27easing → active

Aug 24emerging → active

WHO IT TOUCHES

Supply chainsa delta corridor flooding, two rivers too low to load, and a crosswind ramp building on a motorway

Farmharvest-window decisions on four continents, and the rain is early in some and late in others

CONNECTED

Rain and routed water on the same channels — the same cascade, staggered differently.