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DESK

Aviation

Sep 17, 2026 · NO. 0917
THE READ — what this desk must decide today

a holiday-weekend flight bank into Tokyo, a flooded Southwest hub pair today, and an easy day everywhere else

The decision this desk owns today is a pre-cancellation, and it is about a weekend that has not arrived. Dujuan reaches eastern Japan from SaturdayOgasawara Saturday, the Izu Islands Sunday, rain into Tokyo behind them — across Silver Week, which puts Haneda and Narita holiday banks, trans-Pacific routing and fuel loads on a 70-knot peak and a saturated-ground rain footprint rather than a wind-limit question, and the call gets cheaper the earlier it is made. Today's live disruption is in the Southwest, where a Moderate excessive-rain risk over Phoenix and Tucson is a ground-stop and ramp-closure problem for one operational day before the risk eases and heat becomes the weekend's southern story with records challenged. The American convective picture is Marginal only, Day 1 and Day 2. In Europe, orange criticality over Liguria and Emilia-Romagna and AEMET orange for Mallorca and Almería are the live items, with a coastal wind maximum of 8.5 m/s on the Croatian side as a crosswind note. (The Adriatic figures are internal situational context.)

THE DRIVERS 1–12h — what is driving this desk today
Tropical Storm Dujuan — named, recurved, and aimed at eastern JapanBUILDINGThe American Southwest — the deadly rain, where the headline was notCRESTINGThe American South — fifteen advisories, and records challenged this weekendBUILDINGThe Intermountain West and central High Plains — Marginal, and only thatACTIVEItaly and Spain — an orange Genova Low, and a viral headline five years oldCRESTINGThe Adriatic — the last hot pulse today, then a north-west wet reversalCRESTING
THE RECORD past — how exposed this desk has run

carried on 40 of the last 63 editions — since Jul 5, the 10 most recent shown.

Sep 17named · the deadly rain · fifteen advisories
Sep 16Marginal · the event that moved twice · east of Saipan
Sep 15FORECASTERS STEPPED SUNDAY'S SLIGH… · THE UPPER-MIDWEST HEAVY-RAIN EVENT… · THE FLOOD TOLD TO TAPER TODAY EXPA…
Sep 13A MARGINAL DAY FOR DAMAGING WIND A… · THE EXCESSIVE-RAIN OUTLOOK CASHED … · THE ACUTE TIER HELD AT ZERO A SECO…
Sep 12SLIGHT DOWNGRADED TO MARGINAL · THE EXCESSIVE-RAIN SLIGHT JUMPED H… · THE DEADLY OUTBREAK HAS PASSED SOU…
Sep 11AN UPGRADED SLIGHT · AN EXCESSIVE-RAIN SLIGHT THAT RODE… · AN ORANGE-TIER OUTBREAK ON THE TRO…
Sep 8A CATEGORY-2 LOWELL AT CLOSEST APP… · A SLIGHT THAT SHIFTED SOUTH-EAST A… · THE EXCESSIVE-RAIN SLIGHT MOVED TO…
Aug 28A DOUBLE LANDFALL IN ZHEJIANG · A SECOND ESTOFEX LEVEL 3 · A MARGINAL FOR HAIL
Aug 27LANDFALL SLIPPED TO FRIDAY MORNING… · AN ESTOFEX LEVEL 3 FOR TONIGHT · A SLIGHT THAT MIGRATED EAST
Aug 25PAST ITS PEAK AND FILLING ON A PUB… · 25 EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS · A SLIGHT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND