Nº 1007 · WEDNESDAY 2026-10-07 · 09:00Z
The Atmosphere Today
No. 1007 · Wednesday, October 7, 2026
SINCE YESTERDAYTHE GULF OF MEXICO — TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORMS · INTENSIFIED→THAILAND — THE DAM EASES · WEAKENED→CENTRAL VIETNAM — UP TO 600 MM FORECAST FOR HUE AND DA NANG · INTENSIFIED→EASTERN SPAIN — A SECOND EPISODE DUE AS ORANGE REACHES PROVENCE · WEAKENED→SENEGAL — FIVE DEAD AS THE SCHOOL YEAR IS POSTPONED · WEAKENED→THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC — KOGUMA STRENGTHENS TOWARD A TYPHOON · INTENSIFIED→OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA — HURRICANE RACHEL WEAKENS AT 80 MPH · WEAKENED→OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO — A 90% CHANCE OF A DEPRESSION · INTENSIFIED→THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC — NOLO DECAYS OVER OPEN WATER · WEAKENED→EAST OF JAPAN — CHOI-WAN BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL · RESOLVED→KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA — THE RAIN CLEARS AFTER CLOSING THE TORKHAM HIGHWAY · RESOLVED→PERU — RED HEAT FOR LIMA AND 19 REGIONS · NEW→KENYA — A FLASH-FLOOD WARNING IN THE NORTH-EAST AS THE RAINS BEGIN · NEW→THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST — TORRENTIAL RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY · INTENSIFIED→VICTORIA — A NEW SEVERE WEATHER WARNING FOR GIPPSLAND · INTENSIFIED→SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — THE FRONT EXITS · WEAKENED→ARGENTINA — STORMS EASE TO YELLOW AND MOVE EAST · WEAKENED→SOUTHERN BRAZIL — SANTA CATARINA'S ORANGE EASES TO YELLOW · WEAKENED→SRI LANKA — HEAVY RAIN AND AMBER LANDSLIDE WARNINGS · WEAKENED→SANSHA — A RED RAINSTORM WARNING AS GOLDEN WEEK ENDS · INTENSIFIED→FLORIDA — A MARGINAL FLOOD RISK · WEAKENED→BIHAR — THE RIVERS RECEDE AS THE MONSOON'S RETREAT PAUSES · WEAKENED→THE RHINE AT KAUB — HOLDING AT 3 CM · WEAKENED→THE KWAZULU-NATAL COAST — YELLOW FOR WIND AND WAVES · WEAKENED→
THE LEAD

Tropical Storm Isaias forms in the Gulf, a hurricane forecast by Thursday.

Forecasters expect rapid strengthening and landfall on the northern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday.

AT THIS HOURA 40 mph tropical storm in the south-western GulfAbout 285 miles west of Progreso, moving east-north-east at 8 mph.
WHEN IT ARRIVESA hurricane by Thursday; landfall Friday or SaturdayForecast to pass north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday.
WHO IS EXPOSEDThe northern Gulf Coast, Louisiana to the Florida PanhandleHurricane and storm-surge watches are likely later today.

Tropical Storm Isaias formed overnight over the south-western Gulf of Mexico and holds at 40 mph, about 285 miles west of Progreso. Forecasters expect it to become a hurricane by Thursday, Oct 8, the date of the latest first hurricane on record, in 1905, and to strengthen rapidly to about 110 mph within two days. No coastal warnings are in force yet, but hurricane watches are likely for part of the northern Gulf Coast later today.

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SINCE YESTERDAY — WHAT MOVED
24 systems moved since yesterday's edition · 8 held steady.
✦ APPEARED2
PERU — RED HEAT FOR LIMA AND 19 REGIONS→KENYA — A FLASH-FLOOD WARNING IN THE NORTH-EAST AS THE RAINS BEGIN→
↑ ESCALATED7
THE GULF OF MEXICO — TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORMSintensified→CENTRAL VIETNAM — UP TO 600 MM FORECAST FOR HUE AND DA NANGintensified→THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC — KOGUMA STRENGTHENS TOWARD A TYPHOONintensified→OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO — A 90% CHANCE OF A DEPRESSIONfirmer→THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST — TORRENTIAL RAIN THROUGH SATURDAYfirmer→VICTORIA — A NEW SEVERE WEATHER WARNING FOR GIPPSLANDintensified→SANSHA — A RED RAINSTORM WARNING AS GOLDEN WEEK ENDSintensified→
▽ EASED13
THAILAND — THE DAM EASESweakened→EASTERN SPAIN — A SECOND EPISODE DUE AS ORANGE REACHES PROVENCEweakened→SENEGAL — FIVE DEAD AS THE SCHOOL YEAR IS POSTPONEDweakened→OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA — HURRICANE RACHEL WEAKENS AT 80 MPHslipped→THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC — NOLO DECAYS OVER OPEN WATERweakened→SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — THE FRONT EXITSweakened→ARGENTINA — STORMS EASE TO YELLOW AND MOVE EASTweakened→SOUTHERN BRAZIL — SANTA CATARINA'S ORANGE EASES TO YELLOWslipped→SRI LANKA — HEAVY RAIN AND AMBER LANDSLIDE WARNINGSslipped→FLORIDA — A MARGINAL FLOOD RISKweakened→BIHAR — THE RIVERS RECEDE AS THE MONSOON'S RETREAT PAUSESslipped→THE RHINE AT KAUB — HOLDING AT 3 CMweakened→THE KWAZULU-NATAL COAST — YELLOW FOR WIND AND WAVESweakened→
✓ CLEARED2
EAST OF JAPAN — CHOI-WAN BECOMES EXTRATROPICALresolved→KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA — THE RAIN CLEARS AFTER CLOSING THE TORKHAM HIGHWAYresolved→
HELD STEADYTHE CARIBBEAN SEA — NO STORM IN SIGHT · THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA — NO CYCLONE OR LOW · THE SOUTHERN OCEANS — OFF-SEASON · BRITAIN — FAIR WEATHER · BANGLADESH — NO FLOOD OR MARINE WARNING · NEW ZEALAND — NO SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS · NIGERIA — NOT CHECKED TODAY: THE FLOOD BULLETIN COULD NOT BE READ · CENTRAL AMERICA — NOT CHECKED TODAY: THE REGIONAL BOARDS WERE NOT REFRESHED
WHERE IT IS — THE BOARD
CARIBBEAN — NO STORM IN SIGHTCARIBBEANBAY OF BENGAL — NO CYCLONEBAY OF BENGALSOUTHERN BASINS — OFF-SEASONSOUTHERN BASINSBRITAIN — NO WARNINGSBRITAINTHE GULF OF MEXICO — TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORMS, A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY — open the event1↑THAILAND — THE DAM EASES, BUT THE EAST STILL FLOODS — open the event2▽CENTRAL VIETNAM — UP TO 600 MM FORECAST FOR HUE AND DA NANG — open the event3↑EASTERN SPAIN — A SECOND EPISODE DUE AS ORANGE REACHES PROVENCE — open the event4▽SENEGAL — FIVE DEAD AS THE SCHOOL YEAR IS POSTPONED — open the event5▽THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC — KOGUMA STRENGTHENS TOWARD A TYPHOON — open the event6↑OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA — HURRICANE RACHEL WEAKENS AT 80 MPH — open the event7▽OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO — A 90% CHANCE OF A DEPRESSION — open the event8↑THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC — NOLO DECAYS OVER OPEN WATER — open the event9▽EAST OF JAPAN — CHOI-WAN BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL — open the event10=KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA — THE RAIN CLEARS AFTER CLOSING THE TORKHAM HIGHWAY — open the event11=PERU — RED HEAT FOR LIMA AND 19 REGIONS — open the event12✦KENYA — A FLASH-FLOOD WARNING IN THE NORTH-EAST AS THE RAINS BEGIN — open the event13✦THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST — TORRENTIAL RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY — open the event14↑VICTORIA — A NEW SEVERE WEATHER WARNING FOR GIPPSLAND — open the event15↑SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — THE FRONT EXITS, TORNADIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN BIOBÍO — open the event16▽ARGENTINA — STORMS EASE TO YELLOW AND MOVE EAST — open the event17▽SOUTHERN BRAZIL — SANTA CATARINA'S ORANGE EASES TO YELLOW — open the event18▽SRI LANKA — HEAVY RAIN AND AMBER LANDSLIDE WARNINGS — open the event19▽SANSHA — A RED RAINSTORM WARNING AS GOLDEN WEEK ENDS — open the event20↑FLORIDA — A MARGINAL FLOOD RISK, AND NO SEVERE STORMS — open the event21▽BIHAR — THE RIVERS RECEDE AS THE MONSOON'S RETREAT PAUSES — open the event22▽THE RHINE AT KAUB — HOLDING AT 3 CM — open the event23▽THE KWAZULU-NATAL COAST — YELLOW FOR WIND AND WAVES — open the event24▽
heatsevererain / floodtropicalfire weathersmoke / airdroughtwinterquiet✦new↑escalated▽eased=heldsince yesterday

hemispheric contrast — Two oceans trade places — the Atlantic's first storm in weeks forms at its record, as the Pacific's storms fade over open water.

SYSTEMHAZARDPEAKTRENDTOUCHESCONF
1THE GULF OF MEXICO — TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORMS, A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY INTENSIFYINGtropical40 mph▲ intensifying4C
Tropical Storm Isaias formed in the south-western Gulf at 40 mph and is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday, Oct 8
2THAILAND — THE DAM EASES, BUT THE EAST STILL FLOODS ACTIVEwater2,400 m³/s► ongoing3R
The Chao Phraya Dam cut its release to about 2,400 m³/s, its first step down from the ceiling, and Bangkok holds
3CENTRAL VIETNAM — UP TO 600 MM FORECAST FOR HUE AND DA NANG INTENSIFYINGwater600+ mm▲ intensifying3R
Heavy rain is forecast on Hue and Da Nang, 200 to 400 mm and locally more than 600 mm through Oct 8, on ground already soaked
4EASTERN SPAIN — A SECOND EPISODE DUE AS ORANGE REACHES PROVENCE BUILDINGwater193 l/m²▲ building1R
Warnings in Spain ease to lower tiers, but a very adverse second episode is forecast for the Mediterranean east from Oct 8 to 10
5SENEGAL — FIVE DEAD AS THE SCHOOL YEAR IS POSTPONED EASINGwater142 mm▼ easing2R
The floods have passed their peak, but at least 5 people have died, 3 of them children, and the school year is postponed nationwide to Oct 12
6THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC — KOGUMA STRENGTHENS TOWARD A TYPHOON INTENSIFYINGtropical—▲ intensifying1R
Koguma is forecast to strengthen rapidly into a typhoon over very warm open water within about 60 hours
7OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA — HURRICANE RACHEL WEAKENS AT 80 MPH EASINGtropical80 mph▼ easing1C
Hurricane Rachel, at about 80 mph, weakens slowly over cooler water west-south-west of Baja California
8OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO — A 90% CHANCE OF A DEPRESSION BUILDINGtropical90%▲ building—C
A broad low offshore of southern Mexico has a 90% chance of forming within two days, and a depression is expected within a day or so
9THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC — NOLO DECAYS OVER OPEN WATER EASINGtropical65 mph▼ easing—R
Nolo has decayed to a subtropical storm of about 65 mph and turns north-east over open water
10EAST OF JAPAN — CHOI-WAN BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL RESOLVEDtropical965 hPa✓ resolved—R
Choi-wan became extratropical about 854 km east-south-east of Misawa, a day earlier than expected, and races north-east over cold water
11KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA — THE RAIN CLEARS AFTER CLOSING THE TORKHAM HIGHWAY RESOLVEDwater—✓ resolved—R
Rain cleared on Wednesday after a day that sent the Bara and Landi Kotal rivers to dangerous levels and closed the Torkham highway
12PERU — RED HEAT FOR LIMA AND 19 REGIONS PEAKheat—● at peak—R
A red heat alert covers Lima and 19 regions, with high UV, through Oct 9.
13KENYA — A FLASH-FLOOD WARNING IN THE NORTH-EAST AS THE RAINS BEGIN BUILDINGwater—▲ building—R
Isolated storms bring a flash-flood risk to Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Tana River and Kilifi as the October rains begin
14THE SAUDI SOUTH-WEST — TORRENTIAL RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY ACTIVEwater—► ongoing—R
Thunderstorms, torrential rain and hail bring a flash-flood risk to Jazan, Asir, Al-Baha and Makkah through Saturday.
15VICTORIA — A NEW SEVERE WEATHER WARNING FOR GIPPSLAND ACTIVEwater—► ongoing—C
A new severe weather warning covers West and South Gippsland, and a flood watch spans much of Victoria, as the Thomson recedes at moderate flood
16SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE — THE FRONT EXITS, TORNADIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN BIOBÍO EASINGsevere—▼ easing—R
The front over Maule, Ñuble and Biobío exits on Wednesday afternoon, with tornadic local winds possible in Biobío through the day
17ARGENTINA — STORMS EASE TO YELLOW AND MOVE EAST EASINGsevere40 cm▼ easing1R
The orange storm warning has eased to yellow and moved east over Entre Ríos, Corrientes and Buenos Aires
18SOUTHERN BRAZIL — SANTA CATARINA'S ORANGE EASES TO YELLOW EASINGsevere30 mm/h▼ easing—R
Storms over Paraná and Santa Catarina ease to yellow, with rain at 20 to 30 mm/h and hail.
19SRI LANKA — HEAVY RAIN AND AMBER LANDSLIDE WARNINGS ACTIVEwater75+ mm► ongoing—C
Heavy rain above 75 mm is forecast in several provinces, with amber landslide warnings in force.
20SANSHA — A RED RAINSTORM WARNING AS GOLDEN WEEK ENDS ACTIVEwater—► ongoing—C
A red rainstorm warning covers Sansha in the South China Sea, and gale warnings run from Xinjiang to Inner Mongolia as the holiday ends.
21FLORIDA — A MARGINAL FLOOD RISK, AND NO SEVERE STORMS EASINGwater3 in▼ easing—C
A marginal risk of flooding rain, 1 to 3 inches, covers much of Florida and far south-east Georgia
22BIHAR — THE RIVERS RECEDE AS THE MONSOON'S RETREAT PAUSES EASINGwater—▼ easing—R
Bihar's rivers are receding, and the monsoon's withdrawal holds its line
23THE RHINE AT KAUB — HOLDING AT 3 CM ACTIVEdrought3 cm► ongoing1C
The Kaub gauge holds at 3 cm, flat on the day, still above the record low of −6 cm on Oct 1.
24THE KWAZULU-NATAL COAST — YELLOW FOR WIND AND WAVES EASINGsevere—▼ easing—R
Damaging winds and waves are possible on the KwaZulu-Natal coast, and damaging waves on the Western and Northern Cape coasts to Thursday.

QUIET — THE CARIBBEAN SEA · THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA · THE SOUTHERN OCEANS · THE PHILIPPINES · BRITAIN · BANGLADESH · NEW ZEALAND · NOT CHECKED TODAY — NIGERIA · CENTRAL AMERICA

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