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THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO TEXAS — A MODERATE FLOOD RISK FOR TWO DAYS

On the board · October 1, 2026 →
ACTIVE · October 1, 2026 · NO. 1001
THE WATER

A moderate flood risk covers the central and southern Plains today, home to about 15.3 million people, and moves onto Texas on Friday. Rain runs 2 to 4 inches, locally 5+ in; the threat is rain, not wind.

THE RECORD

43 turning points on record since Jul 18 — the 8 most recent shown.

Sep 30building → active
Sep 28↑ firmed
Sep 27↑ intensified sharply
Sep 26active → building
Sep 25easing → active
Sep 24peak → easing
Sep 23building → peak
Sep 22active → building
WHO IT TOUCHES
Public safetyA red rain warning tonight on the Valencian coast, about 2.93 million affected in Thailand, and a tropical storm warning on Saipan.
Supply chainsThe Rhine at Kaub reads below zero, Thailand's Central Plains are under water, and Texas freight corridors face a moderate flood risk.
AviationTorrential storms over Valencia tonight and a tropical storm over Saipan.
AgricultureThailand's rice belt under water and a wet harvest week on the Plains.
Live events & venuesOutdoor activity suspended in Valencia tonight.
WHAT THEY'RE SAYING

Forecasters have outlined a moderate flood risk from the central plains into Texas over two days. One storm chaser flagged flash flooding in the Great Plains tied to moisture from a hurricane, underscoring how quickly heavy rain could develop. This detail aligns with the broader flood outlook while highlighting the intensity and source of the moisture driving the event.

RTReed Timmer@ReedTimmerUSAchaserSep 30Reed Timmer warned of flash flooding risks in parts of the Great Plains due to moisture from Hurricane Polo.
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