No. 0928

Sources

No. 0928 · Monday, September 28, 2026

Every figure on this edition's cover traces to a source below or it was cut. Full ledger maintained in the issue record.

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  1. 1NHC Hurricane Polo Public Advisory 31, 200 AM MST Mon Sep 28 2026 (0900Z), read from the NHC East Pacific RSS feed — 23.6 N 113.8 W, about 125 mi (200 km) SW of Cabo San Lazaro and 270 mi (440 km) SSW of Santa Rosalia; maximum sustained 115 mph (185 km/h, 1-minute), a category 3 hurricane; 958 mb; moving NNE at 10 mph; a turn NE this afternoon; the centre expected to move inland along the coast of Baja California Sur late this afternoon or early this evening, then inland in southern Sonora late Monday night or early Tuesday; forecast near major-hurricane strength at Baja California Sur and a hurricane at the mainland landfall; Hurricane Warning west coast Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe, east coast Loreto to Bahia San Juan Bautista (upgraded from a watch north of Santa Rosalia with this advisory), and mainland Mexico Bahia Kino to Huatabampito; Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia, south of Loreto to San Evaristo, and south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo; 'Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion'; hurricane conditions on the west coast by late afternoon, tropical storm conditions beginning in the southern warning area this morning; rainfall 6-12 in across portions of Baja California Sur, 4-6 in, maximum 8 in, across southern and central Sonora, life-threatening flooding and mudslides; hurricane-force winds 40 mi, tropical-storm-force winds 105 mi.
  2. 2NHC Hurricane Polo Forecast Discussion 31 (Hagen), 200 AM MST Mon Sep 28 2026 — initial intensity 100 kt; most likely landfall intensity in Baja California about 95 kt, with a chance it holds its current intensity; forecast 95 kt at 12 h (28/1800Z 24.8 N 113.2 W), 75 kt at 24 h on the east coast of Baja (29/0600Z 26.7 N 111.6 W), 40 kt inland at 36 h, dissipated by 48 h; a second landfall in north-western mainland Mexico late tonight or early Tuesday; conditions deteriorating this morning, 'making further preparations difficult'; storm surge likely in areas of onshore winds; distant moisture from Polo and Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys transported into the south-western United States, supporting heavy rain and flooding into the Southern High Plains late today into Tuesday.
  3. 3CPHC Hurricane Nolo Public Advisory 31, 1100 PM HST Sun Sep 27 2026 (0900Z), issued by NHC, read from the NHC Central Pacific RSS feed — 16.5 N 161.3 W, about 400 mi (640 km) SW of Honolulu and 605 mi (975 km) SSE of French Frigate Shoals; maximum sustained 155 mph (250 km/h, 1-minute), a category 4 hurricane, 'could soon reach category 5 intensity'; 929 mb; moving WNW at 12 mph; a turn NW Monday and N Tuesday, remaining well south and south-west of the main Hawaiian Islands but approaching the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument on Tuesday; Hurricane Watch for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals, a Hurricane Warning possibly required on Monday; hurricane conditions possible there by Wednesday, tropical storm conditions by Tuesday; swells affecting south-facing shores of the main Hawaiian Islands for the next few days, life-threatening surf and rip currents; large waves likely to inundate some low-lying atolls from French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa; hurricane-force winds 35 mi, tropical-storm-force winds 150 mi.
  4. 4NHC Tropical Storm Rachel Public Advisory 5, 300 AM CST Mon Sep 28 2026 (0900Z), read from the NHC East Pacific RSS feed — 13.4 N 100.4 W, about 245 mi (395 km) S of Acapulco; maximum sustained 45 mph (75 km/h); 1001 mb; moving WNW at 8 mph; Tropical Storm Watch Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula; the centre expected to remain well offshore; forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday; life-threatening surf and rip currents along the southern coast of Mexico. NHC Tropical Storm Rachel Forecast Discussion 5 (Mahoney) — 40 kt initial; 70 kt at 48 h (17.3 N 106.6 W), 85 kt from 72 to 120 h (20.4 N 110.0 W by Oct 3).
  5. 5JMA typhoon information on Typhoon Surigae (No. 26), issued 15:45 JST Mon Sep 28 2026 (analysis 15:00 JST / 06:00Z), read from the JMA bosai typhoon feed — 27.1 N 131.9 E, about 160 km NNE of Minamidaito Island; 'very strong' class; maximum sustained 45 m/s (90 kt, 10-minute), gusts 65 m/s (130 kt); 955 hPa; moving ENE at 15 km/h; storm-force winds within 85 km, gale-force winds within 220 km (SE) and 165 km (NW); forecast 80 kt 'strong' by 03:00 JST Sep 29, 70 kt and 975 hPa south of Japan by 15:00 JST Sep 29, a severe tropical storm (60 kt, 985 hPa) about 340 km SSW of Hachijojima by 15:00 JST Sep 30, and 55 kt near the Izu Islands by 15:00 JST Oct 1.
  6. 6WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion, 417 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026 — Day 1 (12Z Sep 28-12Z Sep 29) MODERATE for portions of the Southwest and Four Corners: a predecessor rainfall event from Odalys and the approach of Polo, widespread 1-3 in over soils at or near saturation, the Moderate extended to the Lordsburg, NM area with numerous burn scars and the Sacramento Mountains; the Mogollon Rim and San Juans most rain; SLIGHT eastern Dakotas into north-western Minnesota. Day 2 (Tue Sep 29) MODERATE from south-central Arizona to the Texas Panhandle and north into western Kansas, 'widespread heavy rain and potential numerous instances of flash flooding', including the 'extremely vulnerable' south-eastern parts of New Mexico; SLIGHT Central Plains to southern Minnesota. Day 3 (Wed Sep 30) MODERATE over south-east Colorado, north-east New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle and south-west Kansas, and a second MODERATE across central Texas and eastern Oklahoma. Day 4 (Thu Oct 1) MODERATE from south-central Texas to south-eastern Oklahoma.
  7. 7SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, 1151 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026 (valid 12Z Sep 28-12Z Sep 29) — no severe thunderstorm areas forecast; SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook, 1252 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 — severe thunderstorms not forecast across the US Tuesday and Tuesday night.
  8. 8Khaosod English, France24/AFP and The Nation, Sep 28 2026 (reported), citing Thailand's Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation and the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration — about 320 mm of rain in Bangkok over two to three days; 93 roads flooded and five canals critical; more than 80,000 residents unable to leave home; draining needs two to three dry days, up to a week per the governor; 8 dead nationwide; 1.7 million people and more than 500,000 households affected across 27 provinces; Chao Phraya dam release 1,900 m3/s; losses estimated at 12.28 billion baht (University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce); Sep 28-29 declared holidays in Bangkok and three neighbouring provinces; at least 8 dead in Tanintharyi, Myanmar. TMD: heavy rain easing from Sep 28.
  9. 9IMD via ETV Bharat and Argus, Sep 28 2026 (reported) — the low over the north Andaman Sea became a depression at 05:30 IST Sep 28 about 100 km south of Mawlamyine, Myanmar (about 15.6 N 97.6 E); expected to intensify into a deep depression within 12 hours and move NNW toward the north-east Bay of Bengal and the Bangladesh coast over the next three days; winds 40-50 km/h gusting 60 km/h. The IMD bulletin itself was not parsed this run.
  10. 10NCM Saudi Arabia Early Warning page (ncm.gov.sa/en/early-warning), updated 12:21 Mon Sep 28 2026 — 29 active warnings valid Sep 28: 11 red, 13 orange, 5 yellow; red heavy-rain alerts in Makkah (Adham, Al Ardiyat, Al Taif), Asir (Abha, Al Namas, Muhayil, Al Mejardah, Al Farshah), Al-Baha (Al Bahah, Al Mukhwah) and Jazan (Ad Dair); orange moderate rain across Asir, Jazan, Makkah and Madinah. Gulf News (Sep 24, reported): the rainy spell runs through Tuesday Sep 29.
  11. 11Cooperativa (00:44 Sun Sep 27 2026) and La Prensa Austral (Sep 27 2026), reported, citing SENAPRED — the frontal system in the south-central zone left 12,303 people isolated and 643 damnificados; 209 homes with major damage, 977 minor, 1,736 under evaluation; no deaths reported; La Araucania 583 damnificados and 12,179 isolated, 7,828 cut off in Curarrehue after the Trancura River flooded Route CH-199, 1,000 isolated in Lumaco; Biobio red alert for river overflow since Sep 24 (BioBioChile); Los Rios about 200 mm of rain (BioBioChile, Sep 25); DMC cancelled the heavy-rain alarms for La Araucania, Los Rios and Los Lagos on Sep 24-25. Correction: the Coquimbo and Huasco red alerts on 80-120 mm carried in the Sep 27 edition date from July 18-20 2026 (El Mostrador), not this week.
  12. 12Reuters via CP24, Sep 27 2026 (reported) — late-season rain Sep 23-27: India 56 dead, 46 injured, more than 1,000 houses damaged, Uttar Pradesh 66.5 mm against a normal 7.6 mm, 30 Central Water Commission stations in severe flood; Nepal 14 dead and 11 missing, flash floods possible in 49 of 77 districts, 10 missing after an avalanche in Manang. IMD via Business Standard and ETV Bharat (reported): heavy rain in Uttarakhand Sep 28 with isolated very heavy falls; the withdrawal line on Sep 27 ran Gurdaspur-Chandigarh-Muzaffarnagar-Aligarh-Dholpur-Udaipur-Deesa-Naliya.
  13. 13NHC Tropical Depression Fay Public Advisory 33, 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026 — 27.9 N 44.1 W, about 1210 mi (1945 km) WSW of the Azores; maximum sustained 35 mph (55 km/h); 1012 mb; moving SSW at 7 mph; no coastal watches or warnings; Discussion 33: post-tropical late Tuesday, dissipating a day or two later. NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook, 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026 — AL91, a trough several hundred miles ENE of Bermuda, 50 percent in 48 hours, 60 percent in 7 days; no other areas, including the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf.
  14. 14Italy DPC Bollettino di Criticita, 13:59 Sun Sep 27 2026, read on protezionecivile.gov.it — 'Per la giornata del 28 settembre non sono previsti fenomeni e scenari meteo-idro significativi'. Correction: the Monday orange alert for Campania, Calabria, Sardegna and Basilicata carried in the Sep 27 edition was a press release dated 27 September 2020.
  15. 15WSV PegelOnline, Kaub gauge (Rhine), 11:15 CEST Mon Sep 28 2026 — 2.0 cm, state 'low' against mean low water; the gauge read -2.0 cm at 11:15 CEST Sep 27.