Tropical Storm Rachel

Tropical Storm Rachel is packing 40-kt (45-mph) winds, moving WNW at 7 kt (8 mph). Expected to stay over open water.

At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 100.4 West. Rachel is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to remain well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. However, tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Mexico within the tropical storm watch area by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).— National Hurricane Center · public advisory 5

Rachel tracks over open water — no coast is in the outlook. Along its path, our forecast reads:

This is the East Pacific · 12°N–24°N, 114°W–99°W. Rachel’s forecast track is the dotted spine — the labelled dots mark its position each day. Every cell is shaded by how many hours it spends inside Rachel’s gale-force (≥34 kt · 39 mph) wind across the whole forecast, the damaging core counted double.

Read it two ways at once. Colour is the total — the hours of gale-force wind a place piles up. A slow storm writes its danger in duration, not in any single gust, so the longer the wind sits over a place, the deeper its colour. Opacity is confidence — solid where the official probability of that wind is high, faint where it is only a chance. So a deep, solid cell is a place the wind will work for a long time and likely will; a pale, faint one is a brief, uncertain brush at the edge of the cone.