THE WATER
A moderate excessive-rain risk covers central and eastern New Mexico today — 1 to 2 inches widespread, 2 to 4 in swaths , with scattered to numerous flash floods expected. 5 flash-flood warnings are in force, two over central Virginia where 3 to 6.5 inches fell overnight; river flood warnings are down to 16 , all minor.
THE RECORD
37 turning points on record since Jul 18 — the 8 most recent shown.
Sep 23 building → peak
Sep 22 active → building
Sep 21 ▽ slipped down the board
Sep 19 building → active
Sep 18 cresting → building
Sep 17 building → cresting · intensified sharply
Sep 16 ↑ moved up the board
Sep 15 active → building
WHO IT TOUCHES
Public safety A night landfall with red rain, a hurricane 's rain on a populated coast, a two-day hurricane lead for Hawaii, and a moderate flood day. Aviation A Friday hurricane approach for Hawaii, rainbands on Mexico's Pacific coast, and afternoon flash-flood storms over New Mexico.
Agriculture Red rain onto south Odisha's kharif fields, a Chilean foothill deluge, and Nigeria's riverine flood window.
Live events & venues Afternoon flash-flood storms over New Mexico and a Friday hurricane lead for Hawaii's weekend.
CONNECTED
Two flood problems, two arithmetics — New Mexico's is 2 to 4 inches on ground already sensitive from earlier rain.
WHAT THEY'RE SAYING
searched 34 vetted voices and the open field — nothing said about this system cleared the screen.
SOURCES — CNN · CNN, Sep 17 2026 (reported) · Fox Weather · Fox Weather / ABC / CBS · NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, Sep 17 2026 · NOAA WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, 00:26 UTC Sep 12 2026 · NOAA WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, Sep 11 2026 · NOAA WPC Day-1 and Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks, Sep 8 2026 · NOAA WPC Excessive Rainfall discussion (PMDEPD) issued 1931Z Sep 14 2026 · NOAA WPC excessive-rainfall discussion, Sep 17 2026 · NOAA WPC extended-range excessive-rainfall discussion, Sep 16 2026 · NOAA WPC short-range public discussion, 0452Z Sep 18 2026 · NOAA Weather Prediction Center Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook 0056Z Sep 22 2026 and Short-Range Discussion 0623Z Sep 22 — a SLIGHT excessive-rain risk over the Central Appalachians, primarily West Virginia and south-west Virginia and expanding into northern North Carolina, with a localized 3-6 inches possible on saturated soil; a broad MARGINAL including south Florida; isolated flash flooding in eastern New Mexico, west Texas, eastern California and Nevada; the Day-1 flash-flood focus on the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Four Corners; and a broad MODERATE risk developing over much of eastern New Mexico on Wednesday. No winter, heat or tropical-remnant headline in this issuance. · NOAA Weather Prediction Center Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Short-Range Discussion valid Sep 21-23 2026: a SLIGHT excessive-rain area over the Midwest and Ohio Valley plus the Northern High Plains with a broad MARGINAL, the discussion's emphasis on SATURATED SOIL rather than rainfall rate, and the flash-flood focus on the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic Mon-Tue, New Mexico and west Texas Mon-Tue, and South Florida through Tue; cooler north and east; no significant winter or heat headline. excessraintext.php returned 404, so the figures come from the outlook graphic and the QPF discussion. · NOAA Weather Prediction Center Day-1 Excessive Rainfall discussion, Sep 13 2026 · NOAA Weather Prediction Center, Short-Range Public Discussion, 0625Z Sep 19 2026: heavy rain and flash flooding greatest across the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes Saturday, expanding into the Mid-Atlantic and North-east Sunday; a concentrated heavy-rain threat over Montana; isolated flash flooding over south Florida; record-challenging South-Central, lower-Mississippi-Valley and South-east heat in the 90s to low 100s °F near daily records. · NWS EWX · NWS active Extreme Heat Warnings Aug 9 · NWS active-alerts API read about 07:20 UTC Sep 22 2026 — total 391 active alerts (133 land, 258 marine); Flood Warning 41, up from 32 on Sep 21; Flood Watch 11; Flash Flood Watch 0; Heat Advisory 0; Excessive Heat Warning 0; Red Flag Warning 0; Special Weather Statement 8; Rip Current 6. The /count endpoint dropped its events breakdown and rejects ?event= with a 400, so the per-event numbers come from the /alerts/active?event= feeds. Event counts are live snapshots that can move within the hour; the day-over-day direction is the robust part. · NWS active-alerts API, Sep 18 2026 · NWS active-alerts API, about 09:15 UTC Sep 23 2026 — 446 alerts (138 land, 308 marine); Flood Warning 16 (minor river flooding: Mississippi IA/IL/MO, Fox IL/WI, Hocking OH, St. Marys IN); Flash Flood Warning 5 (three from El Paso/Santa Teresa for Dona Ana and Otero NM and El Paso TX, radar showing 1-1.5 in fallen; two from Wakefield VA for Cumberland, Powhatan and Amelia, where 3-6.5 in had fallen since late evening); Heat Advisory 0; Red Flag Warning 0. · NWS active-alerts API, counted by event type ~10:30 UTC Aug 28 2026 · NWS active-alerts API, per-event queries, Sep 16 2026 · NWS active-alerts API, read about 0730Z Sep 19 2026 with targeted per-event queries: Heat Advisory 13, up from 10 the previous morning, across Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama and Kansas plus Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, with a heat index to about 108 °F in Middle Tennessee and about 107 °F in Alabama; total active alerts 362, of which land 68 and marine 294 — the marine count again drove the total. The /count per-event object did not surface this run, so per-event figures come from ?event= feeds. Event counts are live snapshots that can shift within the hour; the day-over-day direction is the robust part. · NWS active-alerts API, read ~0715Z Sep 15 2026 · NWS active-alerts API, read ~07:05 UTC Sep 13 2026 · NWS active-alerts API, targeted /alerts/active?event= feature queries with the national total from /alerts/active/count, read about 07:20 UTC Sep 21 2026: total 336 active alerts (87 land, 249 marine); Flood Warning 32, Flood Watch 14, Flash Flood Watch 0; Heat Advisory 1 (from about 4), Excessive Heat Warning 0. Land alerts concentrated in Ohio, Illinois, Iowa and West Virginia, consistent with the Midwest and Ohio-Valley flood signal; marine dominated by Alaska. Event counts are live snapshots that can shift within the hour; the day-over-day direction is the robust part. · NWS active-alerts alerts feed ~10:15 UTC Aug 27 2026 · WPC · WPC 12Z · WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook · WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued 0043 UTC Aug 13 2026 · WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, 0038 UTC Aug 18 2026, valid 01Z-12Z · WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, issued 2326 UTC Aug 21 2026 · WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, issued 8:51 PM EDT Aug 22 2026 · WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, read Aug 24 2026 · WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Discussion and outlook, issued 8:35 PM EDT Aug 20 2026 · WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, 0046 UTC Aug 16 2026 · WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, issued 0055 UTC Aug 20 2026 · WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook discussion 0853Z Sep 23 2026 — Day 1 (12Z Sep 23-12Z Sep 24) MODERATE risk over central and eastern New Mexico: 'scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding', 'widespread 1-2' of rain ... localized swaths of 2-4 inches '; Slight into south-east Arizona; Marginal Ohio Valley to Georgia/Alabama and south Florida. Day 2 Slight New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and south-west Kansas on sensitive ground; Day 3 Marginal New Mexico into the Plains and south-east New England. The Sep 22 Day-3 outlook had already placed a Moderate over eastern New Mexico for Wednesday. · WPC Jul 24 · WPC PMDSPD 0651Z Aug 4 · WPC PMDSPD 0710Z Aug 9 · WPC PMDSPD 1959Z Aug 6 · WPC PMDSPD 217 PM EDT Aug 7 · WPC PMDSPD 3:09 AM EDT Aug 6 · WPC PMDSPD 3:44 AM EDT Aug 5 · WPC PMDSPD 3:58 PM EDT Aug 10, valid 00Z Tue-00Z Thu · WPC PMDSPD Aug 3 · WPC Short Range 01Z · WPC Short Range 08Z