THE RISK WINDOW
Italy carries yellow only — all nine Sicilian zones, parts of Calabria and Sardinia — and Greece's emergency bulletin for storms and hail over the Sporades and Evia (30 to 60 mm in 24 hours) has run its course with no damage reported.
THE RECORD
12 turning points on record since Sep 11 — the 8 most recent shown.
Sep 23 ▽ eased
Sep 22 ↑ moved up the board
Sep 21 active → easing
Sep 20 easing → active
Sep 19 ▽ eased
Sep 18 cresting → easing · eased sharply
Sep 17 easing → cresting · intensified sharply
Sep 16 active → easing
WHAT THEY'RE SAYING
searched 34 vetted voices and the open field — nothing said about this system cleared the screen.
SOURCES — AEMET Spain via diariodeavisos and national desks, Sep 22 2026 (reported) — the mainland settled with no avisos, and a NEW Canary Islands YELLOW heat warning with Fuerteventura near 34 °C from 11:00, plus calima / Saharan dust and isolated storms possible over southern Lanzarote and south-east Gran Canaria; the aemet.es avisos viewer is JS-rendered and was not directly fetched. DWD Germany, Sep 22 2026 — no severe weather warnings active, with the northern and Baltic coastal winds calmed. Italy's Protezione Civile via desks (reported) — a widespread YELLOW allerta for Sep 22 under an Atlantic trough, Umbria and Lazio into Campania overnight and on to Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia; no orange is confirmed for this date. Meteoalarm main, /HR, /IT and feed endpoints are JS-rendered, ECONNRESET or 404, so no orange or red is asserted anywhere: none-confirmed is not none-exist. ESTOFEX remains suspended, so no European convective outlook is asserted. · AEMET Spain via ecoticias and national desks (reported) — the weekend Mediterranean and Balearic thunderstorm episode has ENDED and high pressure now dominates with NO active warnings; aemet.es was not directly fetched. DWD Germany, Sep 21 2026 — stormy Beaufort force 8 coastal winds over the North Frisian Islands and the Baltic coast Monday with force 9 gusts on the Brocken and Fichtelberg summits, calming Tuesday. Meteoalarm is JS-rendered and surfaced no orange or red: none-confirmed, not none-exist. ESTOFEX remains offline, so no European convective outlook is asserted. · AEMET Spain, Sep 19 2026, through Infobae and Ultima Hora — REPORTED: the orange warning over Ibiza, Formentera, southern Mallorca and the Sierra de Tramuntana for rain to 50 mm in an hour was a FRIDAY window running to 11:59 and has expired; Saturday sees high pressure rebuild with general improvement and residual instability only over the south-east peninsula, Cabo de la Nao and the Pitiusas. · CARRIED and not re-anchored this run: Bangladesh's FFWC river risk, which would not refresh; the Chinese south-west and north-west rain, where CMA and NMC pages were WAF and CAPTCHA gated and aggregator relay returned year-mixing content naming older storms that could not be verified against a primary service and was SCREENED OUT; and MetService New Zealand's central-NZ trough with rain and snow warnings, reached only through an RNZ relay and marked thin. KMA is tracking Dujuan as its No. 25; the Bureau of Meteorology reads quiet in austral spring. ESTOFEX remains offline, so the European convective anchor is absent again this run. · Cappucci / severe-weather.eu (unverified, discourse) · DHMZ and Meteoalarm-Croatia via Croatia Week, The Watchers and severe-weather.eu, Sep 11 2026 (reported) · ESTOFEX storm forecast issued 12:29 UTC Sep 14 2026 · GDACS RSS, Sep 12 2026 (aggregator, read as a lead) · GDACS RSS, Sep 13 2026 (aggregator, read as a lead) · Greek EMY emergency bulletin via Proto Thema, Sep 22 2026 (reported) — storms, hail and lightning early Sep 22 to early Sep 23, 30-60 mm in 24 h over the Sporades and north/central Evia, temperatures down up to 8 °C ; no damage reported. · Italy Dipartimento della Protezione Civile bollettino issued 14:11 CEST Sep 14 for Sep 15 2026 · Italy Dipartimento della Protezione Civile homepage, Sep 23 2026 — yellow only (Sicily, parts of Calabria and Sardinia), no orange or red; Sicily regional bulletin issued 15:00 Sep 22 via weathersicily (reported) — yellow in all nine zones, 'nessuna zona arancione o rossa'. · Italy Protezione Civile bollettino issued 14:26 CEST Sep 15 2026 for Sep 16 · Italy Protezione Civile via met-press relay, Sep 17 2026 (reported) · Italy Protezione Civile via met-press relay, Sep 18 2026 (reported) · Meteoalarm warnings JSON feed and AEMET, read Sep 15 2026 · Protezione Civile Italy via Fanpage, Il Messaggero and the Quotidiano dei Contribuenti, Sep 11 2026 (reported) · Protezione Civile Italy via Meteoweb, Fanpage and Gazzetta del Sud, Sep 13 2026 (reported) · Protezione Civile Italy via Meteoweb, Fanpage, Meteo.it and Newsroom24, Sep 12 2026 (reported) · Protezione Civile Italy, Sep 19 2026, through MeteoAlarm and press — REPORTED: residual YELLOW only on the Apennine and southern sector; the Genova Low is gone. The .gov.it bulletin was not directly fetched this run. · Spain AEMET via El Cronista, Sep 20 2026 (reported; aemet.es not directly fetched): fresh weekend thunderstorm warnings over the Mediterranean coast and the Balearic Islands, with Ibiza and Formentera flagged, and rain on the Cantabrian coast; stability elsewhere. ESTOFEX remains offline, so the European convective anchor is missing this run. · Spain AEMET via Meteoalarm and press, Sep 17 2026 (reported) · Spain AEMET via press relay, Sep 18 2026 (reported) · The Watchers and severe-weather.eu, Sep 12 2026 (reported) · Tomorrow.io v4 REST forecast, 38 of 38 monitored locations, 09:15 UTC Sep 11 2026 (internal context) · severe-weather.eu and circulating media, Sep 16-17 2026 (unverified/debunked as a 2026 event)
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