The Philippines run on the south-west monsoon, not on the typhoon

The local driver today is the south-west monsoon, with flash-flood and landslide risk over western Visayas, Occidental and Oriental Mindoro, Palawan, Negros, the Zamboanga Peninsula and Metro Manila. The typhoon in the news is 2,000 km east-north-east of northern Luzon and outside the area of responsibility — any framing of it as a Philippine threat is running ahead of the bulletin. The monsoon rain has little English-language coverage and most of the exposure.

2 turning points on record since Sep 17.