American severe — Marginal, and only Marginal

ACTIVE · September 18, 2026 · NO. 0918

THE RISK WINDOW

The level held; the corridor moved east and central. Day-1 Marginal over the Carolinas into northern Georgia, the mid-Missouri Valley and the Intermountain West, with isolated severe wind gusts the primary threat.

THE RECORD

52 turning points on record since Jun 9 — the 8 most recent shown.

Sep 17▽ slipped down the board

Sep 16easing → active

Sep 15active → easing

Sep 13▽ slipped down the board

Sep 12▽ eased

Sep 11↑ firmed

Sep 8easing → active

Aug 28active → easing

WHO IT TOUCHES

Aviationa holiday-weekend flight bank into Tokyo that can still be re-cut, and a Midwest and Florida rain day that cannot