Invest AL98 — the one candidate that folded

Down from about 40 and 40 to 10 and 10 inside a day. The disorganised low a few hundred miles east of Bermuda now carries 10 percent over 48 hours and 10 over seven days, with development becoming increasingly unlikely as it drifts west over open ocean. No land threat — and with it goes the only obvious chance on the seven-day board to end a record-late season with no 2026 hurricane yet.

4 turning points on record since Sep 13.

The forecast took one headline back and made another one bigger on the same morning — an Atlantic invest went 30 to 40 to 10 with development becoming increasingly unlikely, while a West Pacific storm that was called a marginal typhoon turned out to be a large one with gale winds about 950 km out.

The basin everyone watches has nothing and the basin nobody watches lit three areas — an Atlantic invest folding to 10 and 10 on a season with no hurricane yet, against EP98 at 60 and 80, a south-west-of-Mexico wave at 80 over seven days and TD15-E's remnants back at 10 and 30.