India's monsoon pivots — withdrawal north, a fresh spell south

EASING · September 18, 2026 · NO. 0918

THE WATER

One bulletin, two opposite meanings, depending which end of the subcontinent you farm. The service flags withdrawal likely to begin about Sep 19 from West Rajasthan, while the southern window opens: Kerala thunderstorm today then heavy rain Sep 19–20, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry isolated heavy through Sep 21, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema heavy Sep 19–20, with widespread rain over West Bengal, Odisha and Bihar and heavy rain over Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab.

THE RECORD

29 turning points on record since Jul 18 — the 8 most recent shown.

Sep 17▽ became confirmed

Sep 16building → easing

Sep 15easing → building

Sep 13cresting → easing · eased sharply

Sep 12active → cresting

Sep 11↑ firmed

Sep 8easing → active

Aug 28active → easing · became confirmed

WHO IT TOUCHES

Agricultureharvest and livestock decisions on five continents, a monsoon that means opposite things at each end of one country, and one release a grower can read off a timetable