Northern Vietnam — the flood that moved north and then stayed

ACTIVE · September 16, 2026 · NO. 0916

THE WATER

200–400 mm, isolated above 500, over Hưng Yên, Ninh Bình and Thanh Hóa Sep 15–16, with Hanoi in the axis and Bạch Mã running toward a forecast ~1,000 mm. About 700 residents in 160 households are out of the Se Pon floodplain in Quảng Trị. (Handled with care.)

THE RECORD

11 turning points on record since Aug 21 — the 8 most recent shown.

Sep 15easing → peak · intensified sharply

Sep 13▽ slipped down the board

Sep 12▽ eased

Sep 11active → easing

Sep 8building → active

Aug 28▽ became confirmed

Aug 27active → building

Aug 24▽ slipped down the board

WHO IT TOUCHES

Public safetyseven national warning systems live at once, and only one of them has published the hour it begins

Supply chainsa dated release on an inland waterway, a delta corridor under water, and a river still too low to load

Agricultureharvest and livestock decisions on four continents, and one of them has a published start time

Healthfloodwater reaching dense settlement on three continents, and a heat tier that reaches outdoor workers

CONNECTED

One flood has a published start time and the other never will — Nigeria's release begins tomorrow and ramps over seven days, which is lead time an agency can actually plan against.

The saturated-slope pair — 200–400 mm on northern Vietnam's mountain terrain and 50–80 mm in an hour over Sichuan and Shaanxi are the same physics on the same kind of ground, and in both the landslide and mudslide risk outlasts the rain warning that produced it.